????Hedgeye的宏觀分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，物價繼續(xù)上揚(yáng)，使得通脹對投資者來說成為一種更糟糕的局面。根據(jù)美國供應(yīng)管理協(xié)會（ISM）對制造業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)的調(diào)查中，支付價格指標(biāo)出現(xiàn)上升。耐用品訂單、消費(fèi)品零售、消費(fèi)趨勢、住房需求和房價的漲勢全面放緩，美國國債收益率差也在縮小，表明經(jīng)濟(jì)增長前景正在變得更糟糕。ISM服務(wù)業(yè)新訂單指數(shù)——ISM調(diào)查中體現(xiàn)今后經(jīng)濟(jì)活動的最佳先行指標(biāo)——已經(jīng)回落到了2009年7月的水平；ISM制造業(yè)新訂單指數(shù)則出現(xiàn)了1980年12月以來的最大月環(huán)比跌幅。當(dāng)時，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)即將陷入衰退，而且在隨后的兩年中一直處于低迷狀態(tài)。

????聯(lián)邦規(guī)劃和監(jiān)管部門眼下正忙著說服公眾，讓他們相信，一切都在掌握之中。但實(shí)際上，監(jiān)管層并不知道哪些因素會引發(fā)新一輪危機(jī)。其實(shí)，新的危機(jī)可能已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)，誘因就是美聯(lián)儲為了提高通脹率、促進(jìn)出口而壓低美元匯率——而促進(jìn)出口的對象是（截至目前）明顯表現(xiàn)出眾的印度和英國。這些政策的長期影響不是增強(qiáng)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力，而是造成更大的差距，從而使社會更有可能出現(xiàn)不穩(wěn)定局面，新興市場也可能全面崩潰，而美國對此毫無準(zhǔn)備。

????在這種情況下，可選方案有限，麥卡洛希望耶倫能明確表示，美聯(lián)儲將繼續(xù)降低購債規(guī)模，同時繼續(xù)收緊政策，從而使美元走強(qiáng)，幫助美國經(jīng)濟(jì)再次出現(xiàn)較快的增長。

????但麥卡洛說：“希望本身并不是一種風(fēng)險管理策略?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????本文作者是Hedgeye風(fēng)險管理公司董事總經(jīng)理，著有《修復(fù)破碎的華爾街》一書。

????譯者：Charlie

????

????Hedgeye's macro analysis finds the rate of change in prices continues its upward trend, making the inflationary scenario worse for investors. The Prices Paid component is up in the ISM Manufacturing and ISM Services Surveys. Durable goods orders, retail sales, consumer trends, housing demand, and home prices are all slowing, and the U.S. Treasury's yield spread is compressing, indicating a worsening growth outlook. SM services new orders -- the best lead indicator of future activity in the survey -- are back down to the level they were in July 2009, and ISM manufacturing new orders just had their biggest month-over-month decline since December 1980, the eve of a recession that battered the nation for two years.

????Central planners and regulators are busy assuring their citizens that things are under control, but the reality is that regulators don't know what forces will cause the next crisis. In fact, we may already be in the midst of the next crisis, spurred by central bankers trashing their currencies to stoke price inflation and stimulate exports -- with notable standouts (so far) India and the U.K. The lasting impact of these policies is not economic strength, but greater inequality, with an increasing likelihood of social unrest and a possible collapse across emerging markets, for which the U.S. is not prepared.

????In this limited options scenario, McCullough hopes for an unequivocal statement from Yellen that the Fed will continue to taper and continue to tighten. That would strengthen the dollar and help set the U.S. economy back on a stronger growth track.

????But "Hope," says McCullough, "is not a risk management strategy."

????Moshe Silver is a Managing Director at Hedgeye Risk Management and author of Fixing a Broken Wall Street.