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鉆石有望接棒黃金成為投資新寵

鉆石有望接棒黃金成為投資新寵

Jen Wieczner 2014-02-21
中國(guó)訂婚鉆戒的需求急速增長(zhǎng)正在幫助推高全球的鉆石價(jià)格。同時(shí),黃金作為傳統(tǒng)的投資品種逐漸喪失了吸引力。因此,鉆石有望成為新的投資熱點(diǎn)。但業(yè)內(nèi)人士稱,鉆石定價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)很復(fù)雜,且容易受潮流和個(gè)人主觀因素的影響,它要成為主流投資品種還面臨很多障礙。

????美國(guó)和新興國(guó)家對(duì)鉆石的需求正在持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。

????黃金已經(jīng)失去了吸引力,至少作為一種投資而言已然如此。自從在2011年夏季上沖至每盎司1,900美元以來(lái),黃金價(jià)格已經(jīng)暴跌了30%。這次暴跌也促使以實(shí)物黃金為支持的交易所交易基金(ETF)出現(xiàn)資金外流。但現(xiàn)在投資者正在把目光投向另一種貴重物資——鉆石。

????近幾個(gè)月以來(lái),圍繞鉆石有可能首次成為一種真正資產(chǎn)類別的興奮情緒一直在逐漸增強(qiáng)。與黃金不同,鉆石目前沒(méi)有現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格,而且除了珠寶商和當(dāng)鋪之外,也沒(méi)有任何傳統(tǒng)市場(chǎng)。著名的新興市場(chǎng)投資者馬克?墨比爾斯最近在接受財(cái)經(jīng)網(wǎng)站《市場(chǎng)觀察》(MarketWatch)的采訪時(shí)表示,他已經(jīng)走訪了各大典當(dāng)經(jīng)銷商,搜集鉆石市場(chǎng)的第一手信息。他認(rèn)為,鉆石市場(chǎng)即將進(jìn)入一輪牛市,而且最終可能會(huì)通過(guò)基金向投資者提供投資渠道。

????事實(shí)上,貝恩公司及其他機(jī)構(gòu)一直在追蹤調(diào)查投資者對(duì)鉆石的興趣,同時(shí)思考從投資方面來(lái)看鉆石是否會(huì)成為下一個(gè)黃金或鉑金。 2013年3月,一群對(duì)沖基金交易員成立了總部位于洛杉磯的鉆石投資交易所(Investment Diamond Exchange)。在那里,投資者可以購(gòu)買實(shí)物鉆石(但無(wú)意把鉆石加工成首飾)。然后在2013年9月,芝加哥一家名為GemShares的公司宣布與納斯達(dá)克OMX集團(tuán)合作,設(shè)立GemShares全球投資等級(jí)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)鉆石一籃子指數(shù)(GemShares Global Investment Grade Standard Diamond Basket Index)。這個(gè)指數(shù)可以用來(lái)創(chuàng)建一只完全以實(shí)物鉆石為支持的交易所交易基金。

????正在推動(dòng)鉆石需求的一個(gè)意外因素是,中國(guó)對(duì)訂婚鉆戒相對(duì)而言新近形成、然而又急速增長(zhǎng)的需求。當(dāng)然,準(zhǔn)新郎花花一大筆錢購(gòu)買鉆戒早已是美國(guó)人訂婚程序的一項(xiàng)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)內(nèi)容。但普信集團(tuán)(T. Rowe Price)全球金屬與礦業(yè)策略的投資組合經(jīng)理里克?德?洛斯?雷耶斯說(shuō),就在幾年前,它對(duì)中國(guó)人來(lái)說(shuō),基本上還是一個(gè)陌生的觀念。不過(guò),隨著中國(guó)的財(cái)富增長(zhǎng),加上中國(guó)獨(dú)生子女政策導(dǎo)致女性與男性的比例降低,中國(guó)女性已經(jīng)找到了一位可以說(shuō)是最好的新朋友。 雷耶斯說(shuō):“如果你是一名中國(guó)女性,而且想要一枚鉆戒的話,那么你一定能找到一位愿意給你一枚鉆戒的男人。中國(guó)的女人差不多掌握著全部的控制權(quán)。”

????同時(shí),因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)好轉(zhuǎn),美國(guó)的鉆石需求同樣也有所增加。市場(chǎng)研究公司拉帕波特集團(tuán)(Rapaport Group)公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2013年美國(guó)進(jìn)口了近230億美元的成品鉆石,與2012年相比增長(zhǎng)了16%以上。這家公司自己設(shè)有的鉆石價(jià)格指數(shù)顯示,去年鉆石的平均價(jià)格上漲了近14%,達(dá)到每克拉1,855美元。

????不過(guò),一些分析師仍然懷疑,鉆石投資是否能像購(gòu)買黃金或其他貴金屬那樣簡(jiǎn)單可行。畢竟,黃金是按照盎司重量定價(jià)的,而鉆石的定級(jí)不僅要根據(jù)它們的大小(即克拉重量),而且還取決于它們的切工、凈度和色澤,甚至在一定程度上還取決于個(gè)人看法。貝恩最近發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告顯示,這四個(gè)因素(即鉆石的4C)存在多達(dá)1.6萬(wàn)種影響每枚鉆石價(jià)格的組合,再加上一定程度的主觀性,鉆石價(jià)值鑒定差異的幅度最高可達(dá)30%。

????銷售諸如金條和鉑金條等實(shí)物資產(chǎn)的貴金屬交易所APMEX首席執(zhí)行官(CEO)邁克爾?海恩斯不清楚自己的客戶是否會(huì)對(duì)鉆石感興趣。雖然海恩斯在鑒定和分級(jí)鉆石方面擁有一定的經(jīng)驗(yàn),他本人甚至還擁有一些鉆石,但他說(shuō)鉆石質(zhì)量參差不齊,從而使得它們成為一種與金條完全不同的資產(chǎn),而且以一種不同的理念吸引著投資者。他說(shuō): “我敢肯定,我們有喜歡購(gòu)買石油、天然氣和波音公司股票的金條買家,但我認(rèn)為他們中間不會(huì)有很多人同時(shí)愿意購(gòu)買鉆石。”

????雷耶斯表示,進(jìn)一步促使鉆石市場(chǎng)復(fù)雜化的因素是,消費(fèi)者的喜好會(huì)變化無(wú)常。比如,目前流行的是深褐色鉆石。但前一輪熱衷于粉色鉆石的趨勢(shì)最終自然而然地結(jié)束了,結(jié)果迫使市場(chǎng)在需求下降時(shí)做出相應(yīng)調(diào)整。雷耶斯說(shuō):“如果鉆石的價(jià)格在很大程度上只是基于時(shí)尚的話,大家怎樣才能給作為投資產(chǎn)品的鉆石定價(jià)呢?”

????雖然他對(duì)未來(lái)市場(chǎng)上出現(xiàn)鉆石ETF的可能性頗感興趣,但現(xiàn)在雷耶斯仍然將繼續(xù)專注于礦業(yè)股,比如英國(guó)公司佩特拉鉆石公司(這家公司的股票在倫敦掛牌交易,交易代碼為PDL),而他效力的普信正是這家公司的大股東之一。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:陳瑋/ iDo98

????

????Demand for diamonds is growing in the U.S. and the emerging world.

????Gold has lost its luster -- at least as an investment. Since hitting $1,900 an ounce in the summer of 2011, the price of the shiny metal has plunged some 30%. That fall has prompted an exodus from gold-backed ETFs. But now investors are setting their sights on another precious material: diamonds.

????Excitement has been building in recent months around the potential of diamonds to become a veritable asset class for the first time. Unlike gold, the gems currently have no spot price or conventional market besides jewelers and pawn shops. The renowned emerging markets investor Mark Mobius recently told MarketWatch that he has visited pawn resellers to get a firsthand view of the market for diamonds, which he believes are on the cusp of a boom, and which may eventually be available to investors via funds.

????Indeed, Bain & Company and other institutions have been tracking investors' interest in diamonds and pondering whether the jewel, in investment terms, could become the next gold or platinum. In March 2013, a group of hedge fund traders launched the Los Angeles-based Investment Diamond Exchange, where investors can buy physical diamonds (with no intention of making them into jewelry). And in September, a Chicago company called GemShares announced a partnership with the Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ) to develop the GemShares Global Investment Grade Standard Diamond Basket Index, which could be used to create an exchange traded fund backed entirely by real diamonds.

????One surprising factor that's driving demand is the relatively new but exploding appetite in China for diamond engagement rings. Prospective grooms splurging on a diamond is, of course, a standard part of the American engagement process. But it was largely a foreign concept to the Chinese until just a few years ago, says Rick de los Reyes, portfolio manager for T. Rowe Price's Global Metals and Mining Strategy. As wealth in China has increased and the country's one-child policy has left the country with a smaller ratio of females to males, however, those women have discovered a new best friend, so to speak. "If you're a woman in China and you want a diamond ring, you can certainly find a man to get you one," says de los Reyes. "You're pretty much in the driver's seat."

????Diamond demand has increased in the U.S., too, thanks to the strengthening economy. The U.S. imported nearly $23 billion of polished diamonds in 2013, up more than 16% from 2012, according to the Rapaport Group, a market research firm that maintains its own index for diamond prices. According to that index, the average price of diamonds increased almost 14% to $1,855 per carat last year.

????Still, some analysts remain skeptical about the feasibility of making investing in diamonds as simple as buying gold or other precious metals. After all, while gold is priced per ounce, diamonds are graded based not only on their size, but on their cut, clarity, and color -- and to a certain extent, the eye of the beholder. According to a recent report by Bain, there are up to 16,000 combinations of those four factors that influence the price of each stone, plus a degree of subjectivity, as value appraisals can differ by as much as 30%.

????Michael Haynes, the CEO of the precious metals exchange APMEX, which sells physical assets like gold and platinum bars, isn't sure his clients would even be interested in diamonds. While Haynes has experience authenticating and grading diamonds -- he even owns some himself -- he says the varying quality of diamonds makes them a different breed of asset than bullion, and attracts investors with a different philosophy. "I'm sure we have bullion buyers who like to buy oil and gas and Boeing stock, but I don't see a large overlap with diamond buyers," he says.

????Further complicating the diamond market, says de los Reyes, is that consumers' tastes can be fickle. Chocolate diamonds, for example, are popular right now. But a previous trend of pink diamonds eventually ran its course, forcing the market to adjust when demand dropped off. "How do you price that when a lot of it's just based on fashion?" de los Reyes says.

????While he's intrigued by the possibility of diamond ETFs in the future, for now, de los Reyes is sticking with mining stocks, like the British company Petra Diamonds (which trades in London under the ticker PDL), of which T. Rowe is one of the largest shareholders.

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