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華爾街對新興市場的看法為什么這么分裂

華爾街對新興市場的看法為什么這么分裂

Mohamed A. El-Erian 2014-02-24
如今的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體比以往更為多元化,也不再那么適于整齊劃一的投資戰(zhàn)略。有鑒于此,針對新興市場的具體投資對象,投資戰(zhàn)略必須高度差異化。

????我猜只有經(jīng)過這個(gè)階段后,局勢的發(fā)展才會(huì)出現(xiàn)變數(shù),原因是現(xiàn)在的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體和過去相比存在相當(dāng)大的差異。實(shí)際上,重點(diǎn)在于人們要意識到二者之間存在下面七個(gè)關(guān)鍵差別:

????? 10年來,新興市場主權(quán)資產(chǎn)的平均質(zhì)量明顯提高——評級從“Ba2/BB”上升到了“Baa3/BBB”【依據(jù)的是投資者普遍關(guān)注的摩根大通全球新興市場債券指數(shù)(EMBIG index)】;

????? 新興市場的整體債務(wù)/GDP比例僅為35%,遠(yuǎn)低于以往;

????? 債務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)明顯改善——短期債務(wù)規(guī)模下降,貨幣錯(cuò)配現(xiàn)象大為減少;

????? 新興市場持有8萬億美元國際儲備,形成了相當(dāng)大的資金緩沖;

????? 大多數(shù)新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體實(shí)際上都取消了僵化的匯率機(jī)制,而這種機(jī)制面對投機(jī)者的侵襲時(shí)顯得特別脆弱;

????? 一些具有系統(tǒng)重要性的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體似乎已經(jīng)可以接觸到西方主要央行重新啟用的掉期工具;

????? 公司層面,企業(yè)普遍變得更有韌性,而且能更好地應(yīng)對金融震蕩。

????當(dāng)然,這種對新興市場資產(chǎn)的整體判斷并不適用于所有國家和地區(qū)。阿根廷等一些國家特別容易受到影響,原因是它們還包含著很大的特殊政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)——考慮到它們滿滿當(dāng)當(dāng)?shù)恼稳粘?,這種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)還將繼續(xù)存在一段時(shí)間。不過,作為一個(gè)資產(chǎn)類別來說,以往威脅新興市場的因素——比如范圍不斷擴(kuò)大的連續(xù)違約、匯率持續(xù)過度上升以及國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)參與的多項(xiàng)緊張談判——對前者的影響已經(jīng)顯著減弱。

????盡管新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體對市場震蕩仍然敏感,但和過去局勢不利時(shí)相比,新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體目前在金融方面的系統(tǒng)性威脅已經(jīng)大為下降。它們的自我保護(hù)程度超過了10年前,金融結(jié)構(gòu)也普遍變得更加牢固。此外,針對新興市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的廣泛探討已經(jīng)持續(xù)了很多個(gè)月份,從而降低了金融市場出現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)性意外事件的可能性。

????話雖如此,但在自鳴得意之前,我們應(yīng)該記住另一個(gè)重要因素,那就是如今新興市場在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中的分量遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過以往。

????IMF的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,10年來新興市場在全球GDP中的比重已經(jīng)從20%上升到了38%(按購買力平價(jià)計(jì)算,這個(gè)數(shù)字將更高)。此外,按主要貨幣計(jì)算,過去10年全球GDP的實(shí)際增長幾乎有三分之二來自這些國家和地區(qū)。

????當(dāng)然,沒有那個(gè)國家比中國更能凸顯人們新近發(fā)現(xiàn)的新興市場日益增長的系統(tǒng)重要性。目前中國是世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,占全球GDP的12%,是10年前的三倍多。實(shí)際上,單憑這一個(gè)原因,密切關(guān)注中國抑制國內(nèi)信貸過快增長的舉措就有可能給投資者和決策者帶來很大收獲。

????如今,新興市場震蕩更多地通過經(jīng)濟(jì)渠道對全球其他地區(qū)產(chǎn)生持續(xù)性影響,而不是金融渠道,而且前者的作用要遠(yuǎn)大于后者。因此,情況最終將變得更加微妙。所以,新興市場已經(jīng)不再是一個(gè)性質(zhì)統(tǒng)一的資產(chǎn)類別,雖然這個(gè)認(rèn)識有悖于人們對整個(gè)新興市場做出大膽預(yù)期的本能意愿。相反,新興市場是一個(gè)存在技術(shù)性關(guān)聯(lián)的集合,但各個(gè)成員國在經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的差異相當(dāng)大。新興市場作為一個(gè)資產(chǎn)類別,它的投資方法應(yīng)該高度差異化。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????本文作者穆罕默德?艾爾-俄萊恩是太平洋投資管理公司即將離任的首席執(zhí)行官兼聯(lián)席首席投資官。

????譯者:Charlie

????

????I suspect that it is only after this stage plays out that the script will evolve differently, reflecting some notable changes between today's emerging economies as a group and those of yesteryears. Indeed, it is important to recognize the following seven key differences:

????? The average asset quality of EM sovereigns has improved markedly in the last ten years -- from Ba2/BB to Baa3/BBB (as measured by the widely followed EMBIG index);

????? At just 35%, their combined public debt-to-GDP is considerably lower than before;

????? The composition of debt is a lot better -- fewer short-term obligations and much lower currency mismatches;

????? At $8 trillion, international reserve holdings provide considerable funding buffers;

????? Most emerging economies have effectively exited rigid currency regimes that were particularly vulnerable to speculator attacks;

????? Some of the systemically important emerging economies seem to have ready access to reactivated swap facilities at major western central banks; and

????? At the corporate level, businesses are generally more resilient and better able to navigate financial volatility.

????Of course, what is true for the asset class as a whole is not true for every country. Some like Argentina and Ukraine are particularly vulnerable as they also incorporate heightened political idiosyncratic risks -- a dimension that will be around for a while given the packed political calendar in several countries. Yet, as an asset class, EM is considerably less prone to the old threats of spreading serial defaults, sustained currency overshoots, and multiple tense IMF negotiations.

????Notwithstanding their continued sensitivity to volatility bouts, today's emerging economies constitute much less of a systemic financial threat than they did in the bad old days. Their degree of self-insurance is greater than what it was 10 years ago, and their financial structures are generally more robust. In addition, there has been extensive discussion of EM risks over a period of numerous months, making a systemic surprise event in financial markets less likely.

????Having said that, and before we let ourselves slip into complacency, we should remember another important fact: Today's EM are a much bigger part of the global growth equation.

????According to IMF data, EM's share in global GDP have increased from 20% to 38% in the last 10 years (and even more in PPP terms). Moreover, this group of countries has contributed almost two-thirds of real global GDP growth in the past 10 years at prevailing exchange rates.

????Of course, no single country exemplifies the newfound systemic growth prominence of emerging markets more than China. China is now the world's second-largest economy, accounting for 12% of global GDP -- three times more than a decade ago. Indeed, for this reason alone, both investors and policymakers would be well-served to keep a close eye on China's efforts to control excessive domestic credit growth.

????These days, the durable impact on the rest of the world of an EM disruption will operate much more through economic channels and less through financial ones. As such, it will end up being more nuanced. So, contrary to the natural desire to make bold predictions for the asset class as a whole, this is no longer a homogenous asset class. Instead, it is a collective of technically linked but economically quite diverse names; and it is an asset class that warrants a highly differentiated investment approach.

????Mohamed A. El-Erian is the outgoing chief executive and co-chief investment officer of Pimco.

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