????最近這些天，閱讀中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)新聞可能會(huì)扭傷你的脖子。某個(gè)月，懷疑論者高舉虛弱的工業(yè)產(chǎn)出數(shù)值，驚呼“中國經(jīng)濟(jì)即將崩潰！”下個(gè)月又輪到樂觀主義者大肆慶賀中國GDP增長7.7%這樣的向好數(shù)據(jù)。

????中國經(jīng)濟(jì)前后搖動(dòng)的最新跡象是近期的一波股票拋售潮。過去幾個(gè)月，中國股市下跌了15%，跌幅是其他新興市場的兩倍，似乎是股票交易者發(fā)出的恐慌信號(hào)。他們擔(dān)心中國可能無法抵御即將到來的挑戰(zhàn)，包括收緊失控的信貸，大規(guī)模的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型，也就是擺脫對龐大的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目的依賴，走上一條更具可持續(xù)性的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之路。

????過去六個(gè)月的中國經(jīng)濟(jì)報(bào)告時(shí)好時(shí)壞，但它們總體上在暗示，烏云就在前方。本文試圖逐一解析各項(xiàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的近期走勢，一窺中國經(jīng)濟(jì)目前的狀況及其未來的發(fā)展方向。

采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)

????半年前，中國的采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù) (PMI，這是衡量一國經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的重要指標(biāo)之一)沖上16個(gè)月以來的最高點(diǎn)。經(jīng)歷了兩個(gè)令人失望的季度之后，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎正在趨穩(wěn)。來自PMI的好消息提振了市場的信心，促使人們相信習(xí)近平主席和李克強(qiáng)總理領(lǐng)銜的中國新一代領(lǐng)導(dǎo)集體有能力應(yīng)對猖獗的影子銀行體系和銀行超額放貸問題，同時(shí)又不至于扼殺經(jīng)濟(jì)增速。當(dāng)時(shí)的主要憂慮似乎是，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)削減國債購買規(guī)模的計(jì)劃到底會(huì)對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)造成多大的傷害。

房地產(chǎn)

????緊跟在這份好心情之后的是一直延續(xù)到去年年末的房價(jià)瘋漲勢頭。去年12月份，北京和廣州的房價(jià)同比上漲了近30%。與此同時(shí)，一些三四線城市的房價(jià)開始下跌。中國的房地產(chǎn)市場現(xiàn)在出現(xiàn)了一道裂痕：最富裕的城市仍然紅紅火火，而一些小城市已經(jīng)開始趔趄?！胺績r(jià)持續(xù)下跌意味著銀行將出現(xiàn)更多的不良貸款，它們將不得不進(jìn)一步收縮貸款規(guī)模，”清華-布魯金斯公共政策研究中心(Brookings-Tsinghua Center)代理主任、中國人民大學(xué)（Renmin University）經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授陶然這樣說道?！叭绻罱K出現(xiàn)信貸緊縮，房地產(chǎn)泡沫可能就會(huì)破滅?！边@一幕可能會(huì)率先從小城市開始，然后逐漸向大城市蔓延。房價(jià)上漲對任何其它經(jīng)濟(jì)體而言都是經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面健康的體現(xiàn)，但在中國，飆漲的房價(jià)意味著，房地產(chǎn)市場崩潰的幾率正在與日俱增。

救助

????今年1月份，一位未透露身份的接盤人（很有可能是政府）救助了一個(gè)規(guī)模高達(dá)5億美元、名為“誠至金開1號(hào)”(Credit Equals Gold No. 1)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資產(chǎn)品。雖然中國避免了信托行業(yè)的第一起違約事件——根據(jù)上一次測算，專為有錢人尋找高息投資機(jī)會(huì)的中國信托業(yè)已經(jīng)發(fā)展到大約1.6萬億美元的規(guī)?！⒉皇且粋€(gè)鼓舞人心的消息。其他潛伏在暗處的不良投資是否也面臨著類似的命運(yùn)？它是不是讓人聯(lián)想到貝爾斯登(Bear Stearns )旗下那兩只于2007年年中崩盤、暗示其他金融機(jī)構(gòu)存在同樣問題的對沖基金？

還是采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)

????二月初，中國的PMI指數(shù)下降到了50.5，抵達(dá)6個(gè)月以來的最低點(diǎn)（PMI指數(shù)50為榮枯分水嶺。大于50說明經(jīng)濟(jì)在發(fā)展，小于50說明經(jīng)濟(jì)在衰退）。就在這些數(shù)字出爐前，中國政府剛剛發(fā)布消息稱，中國2013年GDP增速為7.7%，依然令人印象深刻。這個(gè)PMI數(shù)字非?？膳?，因?yàn)樗A(yù)示著，隨著中國收緊信貸，同時(shí)逐漸擺脫對出口的依賴，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)有可能嚴(yán)重放緩。誰都知道中國最終需要調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式，但這個(gè)過程不一定會(huì)順利。不斷下降的PMI指數(shù)就是在提醒人們注意這一點(diǎn)。

股票拋售

????最后來談一談新興市場在過去幾個(gè)月的股票拋售浪潮：仔細(xì)審視相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)之后，德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)發(fā)現(xiàn)了一個(gè)發(fā)人深省的問題。分析師重點(diǎn)研究了中國H股指數(shù)和A股指數(shù)之間的股價(jià)表現(xiàn)差異（H股在香港上市，由全球投資者廣泛持有；A股在大陸上市，不對外國人開放）。他們發(fā)現(xiàn)，在截止2月中旬的兩個(gè)月，A股指數(shù)僅下跌了6%，而H股指數(shù)則下跌了16%。這些分析師總結(jié)稱，股市并不是在刻意懲罰中國，而是在懲罰所有其他新興市場時(shí)順帶著打壓了一下中國。他們寫道，“對H股指數(shù)與A股指數(shù)跌幅相差10個(gè)百分點(diǎn)這一現(xiàn)象唯一有意義的解釋是，全球投資者正在不加區(qū)分地拋售新興市場股票?！?/p>

????從許多指標(biāo)來看，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)目前起伏不定，但股市多少讓我們對世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的前景抱有一絲樂觀情緒。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：葉寒

????You can get whiplash from reading the economic news coming out of China these days. One month the skeptics hold up weak industrial output and exclaim, "Crash ahead!" The next month, the bulls are back celebrating things like China's 7.7% GDP growth last year.

????The latest sign of China's economic to-and-fro was the recent stock selloff. Chinese shares dropped by 15% over the last couple months, doubling the decline of other emerging market shares, in what seemed like a panic signal from traders worried about China's ability to weather upcoming obstacles, including tightening runaway credit and undergoing a massive pivot away from huge infrastructure projects to more sustainable economic growth.

????The reports have been back-and-forth for the past six months, but overall they hint at some dark clouds ahead. Here, then, is a breakdown of the indicators' recent history, where the economy is now, and where it could be headed.

PMI

????Six months ago, China's Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, a key gauge of the economy's strength, was hitting 16-month highs. The economy looked to be stabilizing after a couple disappointing quarters. The PMI news boosted confidence that the country's new leadership in President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang could tackle rampant shadow banking and banks' excess-lending without killing growth. The chief concern back then seemed to be how much the Fed's cutback in bond purchases, or tapering, would hurt China's economy.

Real estate

????The good spirits were followed by skyrocketing housing prices through the end of last year. Prices rose nearly 30% year over year in December in Beijing and Guangzhou. At the same time, prices in some of the country's smaller third- and fourth-tier cities fell. There's now a break in the market: China's most affluent cities are still booming while smaller ones are starting to falter. "If they continue to drop, that will mean banks will have more nonperforming loans, and they will have to further contract lending," says Ran Tao, Acting Director at Brookings-Tsinghua Center in Beijing and professor of economics at Renmin University. "Finally, if there's a credit crunch, the housing bubble may burst." That could start in the smaller cities, and then make its way to the bigger ones. Rising real estate prices can be healthy for any economy, but in China they're rising so fast that the odds of a crash are growing with them.

Bailouts

????In January, an unnamed source -- most likely the government -- bailed out a $500-million risky bank investment called Credit Equals Gold No. 1. While China averted the first default in its trust industry-- an industry that last measured around $1.6 trillion in size and is tailored for rich people searching for high-interest investments -- the news wasn't encouraging. What does it say about other bad bets lurking in the shadows? Was this reminiscent of two Bear Stearns hedge funds blowing up in mid-2007, which intimated problems elsewhere in the financial system?

PMI, again

????In the beginning of February, China's PMI fell to 50.5, a six-month low (above 50 signals growth). The numbers came just after the news that China posted still-impressive 7.7% GDP growth in 2013. The PMI number was scary because it portended a potential deep slowdown as the country tightens credit and shifts away from a reliance on exports. Everyone knows China eventually needs to shift its economy, but that process won't necessarily be smooth. The falling PMI was a reminder of that.

Stock selloff

????And about that emerging markets selloff the past couple months: Deutsche Bank took a closer look at the figures and found something revealing. The analysts focused on the difference between the stock performance of China's H share index and A share index -- the difference being that H shares are listed in Hong Kong and widely held by global investors, whereas A shares are listed in the mainland and not open to foreigners. What they found was that during the two months leading to mid-February, the A share index fell only 6% while the H shares dropped 16%. They concluded that the stock market wasn't punishing China, but throwing it out with all the other emerging markets. They wrote, "The only meaningful explanation for the 10% under performance of the H share index is the indiscriminate selling of emerging market equities by global investors."

????The stock market offers some optimism for the Chinese economy facing plenty of other ups and downs.