????對(duì)于股價(jià)是高還是低，巴菲特喜歡用股市總價(jià)值和GDP進(jìn)行比較。一年前他就提到了這個(gè)辦法。去年美國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)了1.9%，而股市漲幅接近GDP 的16倍。一年前，美國(guó)股市的總市值是GDP 的133%。去年的牛市過(guò)后，現(xiàn)在這個(gè)數(shù)字是154%。

????這個(gè)數(shù)字曾經(jīng)達(dá)到過(guò)更高的水平——1999年時(shí)的最高點(diǎn)是190%，但這樣的高點(diǎn)并不會(huì)非常頻繁地出現(xiàn)。它并不意味著股市馬上就要迎來(lái)暴跌，但它確實(shí)意味著股市的上升空間可能已經(jīng)不是很大。巴菲特曾在2001年提到，股市價(jià)值和經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的比例在70%-80%之間時(shí)買(mǎi)入股票的投資者會(huì)獲得較高的收益。這就是說(shuō)，股市得重挫48%，才能回到巴菲特所說(shuō)的買(mǎi)入?yún)^(qū)間。

????盡管如此，巴菲特和他的經(jīng)理人仍然在尋找值得出手的股票。2013年，伯克希爾增持了富國(guó)銀行（Wells Fargo）和IBM，這兩只股票只有在經(jīng)濟(jì)和整個(gè)股市表現(xiàn)良好時(shí)才有可能上漲。去年，伯克希爾總共向股市增資了47億美元。

????今年，關(guān)于自己什么時(shí)候退休以及隨后誰(shuí)將掌管伯克希爾的問(wèn)題，83歲的巴菲特仍未透露任何新消息。他只在股東信的末尾談到了今后由誰(shuí)負(fù)責(zé)伯克希爾的運(yùn)營(yíng)，而且?guī)缀跏侵鹱种鹁涞卣瞻崃艘荒昵啊⒛酥吝^(guò)去幾年的話。唯一不同的是伯克希爾的員工人數(shù)，現(xiàn)在這個(gè)數(shù)字是330745人，高于一年前的288000人。

????2011年4月，巴菲特表示自己患上了一期前列腺癌，伯克希爾的繼任規(guī)劃隨即成為一個(gè)熱門(mén)話題。接受治療后，巴菲特很快重新投入了工作，而且再次開(kāi)始一如既往地頻繁出差。和去年一樣，巴菲特說(shuō)他覺(jué)得自己好得不能再好了。

????就像他曾經(jīng)說(shuō)過(guò)的那樣，巴菲特計(jì)劃卸任后把自己的工作一分為二。一名繼任者將成為伯克希爾經(jīng)營(yíng)實(shí)體的首席執(zhí)行官，另外一、兩名繼任者將負(fù)責(zé)管理伯克希爾的投資。巴菲特說(shuō)，可能調(diào)整繼任者人選，但他已經(jīng)確定了哪些人會(huì)在他突然離職的時(shí)候接手這些工作。但只有他和董事會(huì)知道這些人是誰(shuí)。

????現(xiàn)在看來(lái)，投資方面的負(fù)責(zé)人馬上就要敲定。幾年前，巴菲特聘請(qǐng)了投資經(jīng)理托德?康布斯和泰德?韋斯切勒來(lái)幫他管理伯克希爾的投資。在今年的股東信中，巴菲特說(shuō)康布斯和韋斯切勒每人都為伯克希爾管理著70多億美元的資金，而且去年兩人的業(yè)績(jī)不僅跑贏了大盤(pán)，還好于他本人。如果康布斯和韋斯切勒沒(méi)有接替巴菲特的工作，聽(tīng)起來(lái)他們至少能得到一封評(píng)價(jià)不錯(cuò)的推薦信。

????經(jīng)營(yíng)方面，許多人都把艾吉特?吉安視為最有希望的候選人。吉安是伯克希爾旗下最大保險(xiǎn)公司的負(fù)責(zé)人。今年，巴菲特把吉安的大腦稱(chēng)為“一座點(diǎn)子工廠”。他還表示，吉安的業(yè)績(jī)“遠(yuǎn)非其他保險(xiǎn)公司CEO能比”。此外，吉安負(fù)責(zé)的保險(xiǎn)公司在2013年將利潤(rùn)提高了四倍以上。

????巴菲特還說(shuō)，伯克希爾的另外兩名高管——格雷格?阿貝爾和馬特?羅斯——是“非凡的經(jīng)理人”。阿貝爾管理著伯克希爾旗下公用事業(yè)公司MidAmerican，羅斯則是鐵路公司BNSF的負(fù)責(zé)人，外界也經(jīng)常將他們列為巴菲特的潛在接班人。但今年阿貝爾和羅斯出現(xiàn)在同一句話中，而且這句話還談到了BNSF的另一名高層凱爾?艾斯，后者甚至沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)在去年的股東信里。

????這是不是意味著吉安的確領(lǐng)先其他人一個(gè)身位呢？也許吧，但只有巴菲特自己才知道答案。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????

????Buffett's favorite gauge on whether equities are expensive or cheap is to compare the total value of stocks to gross domestic product, and he alluded to this comparison a year ago. Last year, GDP rose 1.9%. Stocks rose nearly 16 times that. A year ago, stocks collectively were trading at a value equal to 133% of GDP. After last year's market gains, we are now at 154%.

????The metric has been higher -- it peaked at 190% in 1999 -- but not too often. That doesn't mean stocks are headed for a crash, but it does mean they may not have much room to grow. Back in 2001, Buffett said investors who buy when the relationship of stock values to the economy falls in the 70% to 80% range should do well. That means stocks would have to plummet 48% before we are back in Buffett buy territory.

????Even so, Buffett and his managers are finding stocks to buy. In 2013, Berkshire bought more shares of Wells Fargo (WFC) and IBM (IBM), two companies that are likely to go up only if the economy and the rest of the market does well. All told, Berkshire put $4.7 billion of new money into the stock market last year.

????Buffett also reveals nothing new this year about who would take over Berkshire if, or when, the 83-year-old executive retires. The only section in which Buffett talks about who will run Berkshire in the future comes at the very end of the annual report and is nearly word-for-word the same as a year ago, as it has been for the past few years. The only difference is the number of employees who work at Berkshire. It is now 330,745, up from 288,000 a year ago.

????Berkshire's succession planning became an issue after Buffett announced in April 2011 that he had been diagnosed with stage 1 prostate cancer. Buffett went through treatment for the cancer, returned to work shortly after, and has resumed his normal heavy travel schedule. Buffett says, like last year, that he has never felt better.

????As he has said in the past, Buffett's plan is for Berkshire to split his job in two when he leaves the company. One person will become the CEO of Berkshire's operating company. Another person or two will be left in charge of managing Berkshire's investment portfolio. Buffett says the names of his successors may change, but he says he has picked who should get those jobs if he were to leave the company suddenly. But only he and the board knows who those people are.

????It appears that the investing job is close to being locked up. A few years ago, Buffett hired money managers Todd Combs and Ted Weschler to help run Berkshire's portfolio. In this year's letter, Buffett says Combs and Weschler each manage more than $7 billion of Berkshire's money. And they both outperformed not only the market but Buffett himself last year. If Combs and Weschler don't get the job, at the very least it sounds like they will be able to get a nice reference.

????As for the operating job, Ajit Jain, who heads up Berkshire's largest insurance unit, is seen by many as the frontrunner. This year, Buffett calls Jain's mind "an idea factory," and says that he has built a business that "no other insurance CEO has come close to matching." What's more, profits at Jain's insurance unit more than quadrupled in 2013.

????Buffett also says Greg Abel, who runs Berkshire utility MidAmerican, and Matt Rose, who co-heads railroad BNSF -- two other Berkshire executives who are often talked of as possible successors -- are "extraordinary managers." But they get grouped into the same sentence, along with another BNSF executive Carl Ice, who didn't even get a mention last year.

????Does that mean Jain is pulling ahead of the pack? Perhaps, but only Buffett knows.