????中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)眼下還沒(méi)有從鋼絲繩上摔下來(lái)。

????周三公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國(guó)2014年第一季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增速為7.4％，低于上個(gè)季度的7.7％。此后，亞洲市場(chǎng)紛紛上漲。雖然第一季度增速是一年半以來(lái)的最低水平，但市場(chǎng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的模式感到滿意——消費(fèi)品零售額的增長(zhǎng)表明國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)上升，固定資產(chǎn)投資增速則略有下降。唱衰中國(guó)的人認(rèn)為中國(guó)依賴于債務(wù)支撐下的基建項(xiàng)目，但這些數(shù)據(jù)則表明中國(guó)在這方面的依賴程度正在下降。

????不過(guò)，這些統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)完全沒(méi)有體現(xiàn)出中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在發(fā)生的演變有多么劇烈。每個(gè)月，仍然有幾百萬(wàn)人從中國(guó)農(nóng)村到城鎮(zhèn)地區(qū)去尋找制造業(yè)領(lǐng)域的工作機(jī)會(huì)，而中國(guó)農(nóng)民工的數(shù)量已經(jīng)超過(guò)美國(guó)的全部勞動(dòng)力。中國(guó)的首要任務(wù)是要維持出口領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展，從而確保為這些人提供就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，以防經(jīng)濟(jì)增速放緩導(dǎo)致政治局勢(shì)不穩(wěn)。

????雖然周三公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在緩慢實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡的過(guò)程中，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速仍足夠高，但批評(píng)者們?nèi)杂谐渥愕睦碛蓙?lái)質(zhì)疑中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)能否繼續(xù)保持增長(zhǎng)。下面就是其中三條：

????1. 經(jīng)濟(jì)史表明不太可能出現(xiàn)不間斷增長(zhǎng)。

????無(wú)論是19世紀(jì)80年代的美國(guó)，還是20世紀(jì)90年代的日本，新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體在演變?yōu)榘l(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的過(guò)程中一般都會(huì)經(jīng)歷某種形式的金融危機(jī)?！皝喼匏男↓垺敝械男录悠潞晚n國(guó)是例外，它們的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過(guò)程并沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)持久的政治或經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。事實(shí)上，韓國(guó)從專制到民主的過(guò)渡有時(shí)會(huì)被那些希望中國(guó)進(jìn)行民主改革的人奉為民主化的典范。然而，即便這樣，韓國(guó)和新加坡還是在20世紀(jì)90年代受到了亞洲金融危機(jī)的沉重打擊，更何況中國(guó)的國(guó)土面積和多元化程度都遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)新加坡和韓國(guó)。

????2. 中國(guó)的中央政府并不是無(wú)所不能。

????前銀行家兼作家薩蒂亞吉特?達(dá)斯最近指出，中國(guó)是否會(huì)出現(xiàn)所謂的經(jīng)濟(jì)硬著陸很大程度上取決于中央政府與地方政府之間的角力。達(dá)斯寫道，

????中國(guó)有句俗話叫山高皇帝遠(yuǎn)。它的意思是，自古以來(lái)，中國(guó)中央政府對(duì)地方的控制力都較弱，地方政府擁有自治權(quán)而且?guī)缀跽劜簧现艺\(chéng)，也就是說(shuō)中央政府對(duì)地方事務(wù)的影響有限。

????盡管中央政府努力遏制影子銀行為地方基建項(xiàng)目放貸（這些項(xiàng)目規(guī)模巨大，經(jīng)濟(jì)效益令人懷疑，而且是為了政績(jī)而建），但有大量證據(jù)表明，許多這樣的投資項(xiàng)目以及其他隱性投資仍然得到了資金支持。去年，摩根大通（JPMorgan）在一份報(bào)告中估計(jì)，2010-2012年影子銀行的規(guī)模擴(kuò)大了一倍，達(dá)到6萬(wàn)億美元。即便最近中國(guó)一直在整頓監(jiān)管范圍之外的貸款，但目前可能已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了很多嚴(yán)重問(wèn)題。

????3. 就算泡沫沒(méi)有破滅，揮霍浪費(fèi)的支出仍然可能嚴(yán)重拖累經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。

????1月下旬，中國(guó)一家投資公司因?yàn)橘Y助的煤炭公司被迫違約而得到了政府的援助。這樣做是為了不讓市場(chǎng)擔(dān)心這家基金公司破產(chǎn)、從而在影子銀行領(lǐng)域引起恐慌。這起事件表明，中國(guó)政府愿意竭盡全力來(lái)防止金融危機(jī)。但是，北京方面無(wú)法糾正影子銀行做出的錯(cuò)誤決定。即便中國(guó)能夠避免債務(wù)泡沫的破滅，缺乏效益的項(xiàng)目未來(lái)仍然會(huì)導(dǎo)致中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入困境。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

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????The Chinese economy hasn't fallen from the tightrope yet.

????Markets in Asia rose Wednesday following the release of data showing that the growth of the Chinese economy slowed in the first quarter of 2014 to an annual rate of 7.4% from 7.7% the previous quarter. Though the first quarter saw the slowest growth for the Chinese economy in a year-and-a-half, markets were pleased with the way in which it was slowing -- with increases in retail sales signaling growth in domestic consumption and a slight decline in the rate of fixed asset investment growth, which show the Chinese turning away from what China bears see as a dependence on debt-fueled infrastructure projects.

????But these statistics don't even begin to tell the story of how radically the Chinese economy continues to evolve. Millions of people per month continue to emigrate from China's farms to urban areas in search of work in the country's manufacturing sector, while the number of migrant workers in China is greater than the size of the entire American labor force. Maintaining an export sector that can supply jobs for all these people is priority No. 1 for China, lest a lack of economic progress leads to political instability.

????And while data released Wednesday suggest that China is growing quickly enough while managing to slowly rebalance its economy, there are still plenty of reasons for critics to doubt they can continue to pull it off. Here are three:

????1. Economic history suggests a seamless ascent isn't likely.

????Be it the United States in the 1890s or Japan in the 1990s, it's common for economies to experience some sort of financial crisis as they make a transition from emergent to developed. Exceptions to this rule include Singapore and South Korea -- both of these "Asian Tigers" were able to ascend in status without lasting political or economic crises. Indeed, South Korea's transition from authoritarianism to democracy is sometimes cited as a model for those hopeful that democratic reforms will come to China. But even these economies were hit hard by the Asian financial crisis of the 1990s, and neither country is anywhere near as large or diverse as China.

????2. The Chinese central government isn't all-powerful.

????As former banker and author Satyajit Das pointed out recently, much of the case for expecting a so-called hard landing is centered around the way the central government interacts with powerful local governments in China. Writes Das,

????An ancient Chinese proverb -- shan gāo, huángdì yuǎn -- states "The mountains are high and the emperor is far away." The saying implies that Beijing's control over its regions is historically weak, with local autonomy and little loyalty, meaning that central authorities have limited influence over local affairs.

????Despite the central government's efforts to curb shadow bank lending to support big, economically questionable, politically motivated local infrastructure projects, there's plenty of evidence that these and other dodgy investments continue to be funded, threatening the stability of the system. A JPMorgan report from last year estimated that the size of the shadow banking sector doubled between 2010 and 2012 to $6 trillion. Even with recent efforts to rein in unregulated lending, much of the worst could already have been done.

????3. Even without a bubble burst, wasteful spending could be a serious drag on growth.

????In late January, a Chinese investment company was bailed out by the government after a coal company it was funding was forced to miss a debt payment. The bailout was arranged to calm fears that this particular fund company going belly up would spark panic in the rest of the shadow banking sector. The incident shows that the Chinese government is willing to go to great lengths to prevent a financial crisis, but Beijing can't do anything to reverse bad decisions made by shadow banks. Even if China can avoid a bursting of a debt bubble, its economy will still have to struggle under the weight of economically unproductive projects.