????上周五，美國零售及時裝設(shè)計(jì)公司拉爾夫?勞倫（Ralph Lauren）公布了第四季度業(yè)績。雖然平淡的前景造成公司股價下跌，但它的業(yè)績依然好于華爾街預(yù)期。如果投資者在消化業(yè)績數(shù)據(jù)時能和拉爾夫?勞倫（本人，而不是這家公司）待上五分鐘，他們就會向這位首席執(zhí)行官提出三個關(guān)鍵問題。

????這些問題有：

關(guān)于授權(quán)經(jīng)營

????拉爾夫?勞倫公司在過去40年中經(jīng)歷了幾個為期十年的大周期，現(xiàn)在正要進(jìn)入一個新的周期。有些周期起伏不定，有些則完成得很完美。但最成功的莫過于重新掌控各類品牌和產(chǎn)品的設(shè)計(jì)與銷售。最有利的周期（遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過其他周期）剛剛結(jié)束。雖然有些人不這么認(rèn)為，但在我們看來這個周期已經(jīng)毫無疑問地結(jié)束了。

????最強(qiáng)勁的周期是公司收回內(nèi)容控制權(quán)（而非對外授權(quán)）的時候。例如，手提包業(yè)務(wù)的規(guī)模原本應(yīng)該達(dá)到幾十億美元，如果被許可人的銷售額只有1億美元，公司就會收回授權(quán)?；蛘攮偹狗b集團(tuán)（Jones Apparel Group）的利潤率達(dá)到了28%，拉爾夫?勞倫卻只能獲得前者7%的利潤，它也會收回這個價值4億美元的品牌。還有很多這樣的例子。但從PVH/ Warnaco公司收回Chaps品牌之后，拉爾夫?勞倫已經(jīng)沒有規(guī)模較大的授權(quán)可以收回了。

????這一點(diǎn)很重要，因?yàn)槭召忂@些授權(quán)是我們在零售行業(yè)見到的增值能力最強(qiáng)的活動，而且這不只是因?yàn)槔瓲柗?勞倫的收購成本通常為零。重新獲得內(nèi)容控制權(quán)后，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)這家公司經(jīng)營性資產(chǎn)的凈回報率從13%升至26%，從而使拉爾夫?勞倫成為這個零售細(xì)分市場中回報率最高的零售商之一。

????問題：拉爾夫?勞倫正要進(jìn)入一個新的周期，必須投入大量資金來實(shí)現(xiàn)增長。我們認(rèn)為機(jī)遇是存在的，但要考慮到實(shí)際的資本成本。從數(shù)學(xué)角度而言，這些新舉措的回報率有沒有希望超過10年來的高增長機(jī)遇為拉爾夫?勞倫帶來的回報率？如果不能，我們對財(cái)務(wù)回報率應(yīng)該有怎樣的預(yù)期？如果回報率下降，估值倍數(shù)就很可能不會上升。

關(guān)于繼任計(jì)劃

????標(biāo)普500指數(shù)（S&P 500）的成分股公司中，只有七位首席執(zhí)行官的年齡達(dá)到或超過了74歲，而拉爾夫?勞倫就是其中之一。有趣的是，隨著這家公司長期以來的二把手羅杰?法拉（一直是公司增長的關(guān)鍵人物）今年進(jìn)入“假退休”狀態(tài)，人們或許會認(rèn)為，74歲的首席執(zhí)行官勞倫的作用也會不斷下降。但實(shí)際情況正好相反，勞倫開始發(fā)揮更重要的作用。我們認(rèn)為這樣做沒問題，原因是首席財(cái)務(wù)官克里斯?彼得森將承擔(dān)更大的責(zé)任，而且會在今年兼任首席會計(jì)官。我們認(rèn)為彼得森與法拉如出一轍，都是“搖滾明星”式的管理者。

????On Friday, U.S. retailer and clothing designer Ralph Lauren (RL) reported earnings for the fourth quarter. The results were better than Wall Street expected, although the company's tepid outlook has sent shares lower. As investors digest the news, here are three key questions for Ralph Lauren (the man, not the company) if we had five minutes with the CEO.

????Here goes …

On licensing

????Ralph Lauren is a company that has successfully navigated through decade-long mega-cycles over the past 40 years, and it's starting a new one right now. Some cycles have been choppy, some were perfectly executed. But the most successful had to do with regaining control over designing and selling different labels and product classifications. The most favorable cycle -- by a country mile -- was the one that just ended. And though some might argue otherwise, there's no doubt in our mind that it did in fact end.

????The strongest cycles were when the retailer was taking back control of its content (as opposed to licensing it out). For example, taking back a handbag license when the licensee only generated $100 million in sales on what should have been a billion dollar business. Or taking back a $400 million label from Jones Apparel Group when Jones was generating a 28% margin and only paying Ralph Lauren 7%. There are over a dozen examples. But with Ralph Lauren taking back the Chaps label from PVH/Warnaco, there are officially no more meaningful licenses the retailer can pull back in house.

????This matters because these license acquisitions are some of the most accretive deals we've seen in retail -- and that's not just because the acquisition costs for Ralph Lauren have usually been zero. While the retailer regained control of its content, we saw return on net operating assets go from 13% to 26% -- making Ralph Lauren one of the highest return retailers in its segment of retail.

????Question: Ralph Lauren is starting off a new cycle where it has to invest significant capital to grow. The opportunities are there, we think. But there's a real capital cost that needs to be put against these ideas. Is it mathematically possible for these new initiatives to be higher return than the slam-dunk growth opportunities the retailer has had over the past 10 years? If not, how should we think about the trajectory of financial returns? If returns go down, the multiple probably is not going up.

On succession planning

????There are only seven CEOs in the 500 companies listed in the Standard & Poor's Index who are 74 or older. Ralph Lauren is one of them. Interestingly enough, this year with the pseudo-retirement of longtime second-in-command Roger Farrah (who has been critical to the retailer's growth trajectory), Lauren is taking a greater role in the organization as opposed to the diminishing role one might expect from a 74-year-old CEO. We're okay with that for one reason -- and that's the enhanced responsibilities given to chief financial officer Chris Peterson, who added chief accounting officer to his role this year. We think that Peterson is every bit the rock star that Farrah was.