????上周四公布的調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，5月份，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇力度稍有減弱，但仍有望出現(xiàn)三年來(lái)表現(xiàn)最好的一個(gè)季度。

????研究機(jī)構(gòu)Markit公布，5月份，該機(jī)構(gòu)的歐元區(qū)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)（PMI）從54.0的三年高點(diǎn)微跌至53.9。美銀美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）分析師估算，這個(gè)數(shù)字對(duì)應(yīng)的歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)年化增長(zhǎng)率為1.5%-2.0%。PMI超過(guò)50表明經(jīng)濟(jì)處于擴(kuò)張狀態(tài)。

????去年歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)擺脫了衰退陰霾，但復(fù)蘇一直乏力；部分成員國(guó)的失業(yè)率仍然接近歷史最高水平；各家銀行更關(guān)心的也依然是如何改善自己的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債情況，而不是向企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者發(fā)放新的貸款。

????Markit調(diào)查了歐元區(qū)約5000家公司，外界認(rèn)為它的PMI能很好地體現(xiàn)當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)。如果得到產(chǎn)出和銷(xiāo)售等硬數(shù)據(jù)的證實(shí)，5月份PMI就表示第一季度增長(zhǎng)遲緩的歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)有了改善。但這項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)中仍隱藏著許多嚴(yán)重不足之處。舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，歐元區(qū)第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體、法國(guó)的綜合指標(biāo)（composite index）回落到了50以下，表明法國(guó)5月份的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)實(shí)際上出現(xiàn)了下降。此外，歐元區(qū)制造業(yè)指標(biāo)（manufacturing component）跌到了52.5，是六個(gè)月以來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)，表明歐元升值已經(jīng)帶來(lái)了問(wèn)題，至少對(duì)歐元區(qū)部分出口商來(lái)說(shuō)是這樣。歐洲央行（European Central Bank）在下周的理事會(huì)會(huì)議上可能會(huì)因此而面臨更大的壓力，要求它放松政策。美銀美林分析師預(yù)計(jì)，歐央行將把主要再融資利率（refinancing rate）從0.25%下調(diào)至0.10%。就算目前沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)通縮，歐元區(qū)的通脹率也已經(jīng)非常接近于零，導(dǎo)致歐央行在過(guò)去幾個(gè)月中一直面臨著采取措施的壓力。

????英國(guó)傳來(lái)了更為明顯的有利消息。英國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)（Confederation of British Industry）的最新調(diào)查顯示，大多數(shù)公司表示3-5月份產(chǎn)出上升，預(yù)計(jì)隨后三個(gè)月產(chǎn)出將進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)的公司也占大多數(shù)。雖然歐央行依然更有可能放松貨幣政策，但看來(lái)英國(guó)央行（Bank of England）正在緩慢地朝著首次收緊政策邁進(jìn)。市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)，英國(guó)央行最快將在明年第一季度提高基準(zhǔn)利率。

????此外，上周四公布的亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)都表現(xiàn)良好。匯豐銀行（HSBC）估算，中國(guó)制造業(yè)達(dá)到了五個(gè)月以來(lái)的最佳狀態(tài)。日本的類(lèi)似調(diào)查表明，工業(yè)企業(yè)已經(jīng)消化了國(guó)內(nèi)銷(xiāo)售稅大幅上調(diào)的影響——就日本首相安倍晉三再次啟動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的重大計(jì)劃而言，許多人都認(rèn)為提高銷(xiāo)售稅是最大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素之一。日經(jīng)（Nikkei）指數(shù)上周四收盤(pán)時(shí)上漲2.1%，香港恒生指數(shù)也上揚(yáng)了0.5%。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????The euro zone's economic recovery weakened slightly in May, but is still on course for its best quarter in three years, according to a survey released Thursday.

????Research firm Markit said its Purchasing Managers' Index for the euro zone fell marginally to 53.9 in May from a three-year high of 54.0, indicating that the region is growing at an annualized pace of between 1.5%-2.0%, according to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. A number above 50 denotes expansion.

????The euro zone exited recession last year, but the recovery has struggled to build any momentum, with unemployment still near record highs in some countries, and banks still more concerned with strengthening their balance sheets rather than extending new loans to businesses and consumers.

????Markit's surveys track responses from some 5,000 companies around the euro zone, and are seen as a good indicator of current economic conditions. If confirmed by 'hard' data on output and sales, the latest PMIs would represent an improvement from a sluggish first quarter, but they still continue to hide a number of important weak spots: for example, the composite index for France, the region's second-largest economy, slipped back below 50, indicating that activity actually fell during the month. In addition, the manufacturing component of the regional index fell to a six-month low of 52.5, suggesting that the strength of the euro is causing problems for at least some of the region's exporters. That may increase the pressure on the European Central Bank to ease policy when its governing council meets next week. BAML analysts expect the ECB to cut its key refinancing rate to 0.10% from 0.25%. Even if the region isn't currently experiencing outright deflation, inflation is so close to zero that pressure has been building on the ECB to do something for months.

????There was more clearly positive news from the UK, where the Confederation of British Industry's latest survey found a big majority of companies reporting higher output in there three months to May, and another big majority expecting output to rise further in the coming quarter. Whereas the ECB is still more likely to loosen its monetary policy, the Bank of England appears to be edging closer to first measures to tighten it. Markets expect the BoE to raise its key interest rate as early as the first quarter of next year.

????Elsewhere, it's been a good day for data in Asia too, with HSBC's estimate of manufacturing conditions in China hitting its highest level in five months and a similar survey in Japan suggesting that industry has digested a big increase in the domestic sales tax, an event that many saw as one of the biggest risks to the radical plans of Prime Minister Abe to get the economy going again. The Nikkei index of Japanese stocks ended up 2.1% on the day, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index gained 0.5%.