????近期，莫迪獲得歷史性勝利，當(dāng)選印度新任總理，全球市場應(yīng)聲上漲。外國投資者希望莫迪能夠扭轉(zhuǎn)印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢。僅在過去六個(gè)月內(nèi)，外國投資者在印度市場的投資總額就達(dá)到了160億美元。

????不過，盡管這個(gè)世界上最大的民主國家在世界舞臺(tái)上扮演著重要角色，但由于過度監(jiān)管、缺乏全國性的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、政治上的腐敗，印度從未真正發(fā)揮全部的經(jīng)濟(jì)潛力。雖然莫迪政府的自由市場改革前景對(duì)投資界而言十分誘人，而且可能會(huì)吸引更多資金流入印度，但是，美國和其他地方的投資者不能操之過急，相反應(yīng)認(rèn)真考慮印度經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢以及莫迪政府中仍然存在的固有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

????印度擁有12億人口，其中30％仍然生活在貧困之中，而56％的勞動(dòng)力從事農(nóng)業(yè)工作，但農(nóng)業(yè)僅占GDP的18％。因此，印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)改革不僅僅需要放寬商業(yè)監(jiān)管，還需要對(duì)勞動(dòng)力進(jìn)行大規(guī)模地重新分配，同時(shí)通過更好的教育和職業(yè)培訓(xùn)對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力進(jìn)行再培訓(xùn)，讓他們能夠從事其他職業(yè)。此外，雖然印度女性占人口的50%，但只有29％的印度女性參加工作，說明有價(jià)值的資源沒有得到充分地利用，而這也阻礙了國家的進(jìn)步。

????為改善這種效率低下的局面，莫迪政府將不得不重新打造一套新班子。但鑒于官方資源的缺乏和印度臭名遠(yuǎn)揚(yáng)的官僚怠惰現(xiàn)象，莫迪政府要想取得成功，關(guān)鍵在于贏得私營部門的資金和支持。此外，還需要重點(diǎn)指出的是，印度勞動(dòng)力的重組將需要花費(fèi)數(shù)年、甚至數(shù)十年的時(shí)間，而后才能為經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來成效。這些因素都會(huì)降低投資者的短期和中期回報(bào)，而且印度自身也需解放思想，在這一方面進(jìn)行先期投資。

????印度進(jìn)行自由市場實(shí)驗(yàn)的另一個(gè)主要挑戰(zhàn)是印度人民黨（BJP）在省級(jí)層面的基礎(chǔ)勢力，人民黨的根源在于宗教原教旨主義。如果沒有真正自由的社會(huì)，自由市場經(jīng)濟(jì)也就無法正常運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。而莫迪所領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人民黨奉行的是保守的社會(huì)和政治理念，無法實(shí)現(xiàn)真正自由的社會(huì)。雖然新任總理承諾將采取包容性立場，但要讓人民黨的廣大成員也做到這一點(diǎn)卻極為困難，他們中的大部分人仍居住在鄉(xiāng)村，而且深陷于種姓制度這樣的傳統(tǒng)社會(huì)結(jié)構(gòu)之中。

????人民黨的農(nóng)村基礎(chǔ)是莫迪方針面臨的另一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。雖然印度的貧窮人口肯定會(huì)從經(jīng)濟(jì)改革中受益，但他們也最容易受到企業(yè)的剝削，因此可能需要通過國家福利來維持生計(jì)。這對(duì)莫迪以及印度真正的自由市場而言是一個(gè)明顯的矛盾。為了提高國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)水平，印度必須推行資本主義準(zhǔn)則，但如果沒有國家的控制，印度的窮人和中產(chǎn)階級(jí)會(huì)被遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)甩在后面。過去二十年的偽自由經(jīng)濟(jì)使得大型印度公司和外國公司得以繁榮發(fā)展，也支持了印度經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，但由于財(cái)富過于集中、收入不平等以及政府腐敗，印度未能改變普通民眾的命運(yùn)。

????這些會(huì)讓外國投資者感到擔(dān)憂，因?yàn)闊o計(jì)劃的偶然增長可能會(huì)帶來動(dòng)蕩。印度不斷擴(kuò)大的貧富差距將引發(fā)勞工問題和政治動(dòng)蕩，而這可能會(huì)妨礙莫迪政府引導(dǎo)經(jīng)濟(jì)平衡、系統(tǒng)地增長。人們往往認(rèn)為自由市場原則可以解決所有問題，但如果只有一小部分人享有大部分成果，問題就無法得到解決；如果人民黨無法實(shí)現(xiàn)承諾，為所有人帶來繁榮，它也會(huì)像左傾國大黨一樣很快被趕下臺(tái)。

????此外，印度還存在腐敗這個(gè)棘手的問題。出現(xiàn)腐敗問題并非缺少法規(guī)，而是因?yàn)楣賳T普遍漠視法規(guī)。要根除腐敗，莫迪政府除了制定體制上的解決方案之外，還需要從文化和個(gè)人層面著手來解決這一問題。說起來容易做起來難。具有諷刺意味的是，現(xiàn)有企業(yè)通過抑制競爭來保護(hù)自己在印度市場的霸主地位，而腐敗是這些企業(yè)運(yùn)用的一種工具。這意味著莫迪的反腐敗計(jì)劃可能也會(huì)面臨來自私營部門大型企業(yè)的反對(duì)（雖然它們只會(huì)暗中反對(duì)）。

????這一切并不意味著新任總理完全沒有機(jī)會(huì)，但等待他的將是重重困難。如果投資者將希望寄托于新總理實(shí)行切實(shí)或快速的改革，那么他們最好采取有針對(duì)性的對(duì)沖措施以避免損失。目前的市場的興奮情緒可能只是一個(gè)泡沫，而且投資者可能會(huì)因此付出高昂的代價(jià)。

????本文作者是一位政治和商業(yè)評(píng)論員。他曾在拉扎德和德利佳華這兩家投資銀行任職，還曾為對(duì)沖基金Ramius效力。他目前是中端市場廣播服務(wù)提供商戴維森媒體集團(tuán)的董事。作者擁有哥倫比亞大學(xué)商學(xué)院的工商管理碩士學(xué)位，還著有兩部驚悚小說。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者： Lina

????Markets around the world rallied recently on Narendra Modi's historic win as India's new prime minister. Foreign investors are hopeful he will turn the economy around and have invested $16 billion in India's markets in the last six months alone.

????But while the world's largest democracy is an important player on the world stage, India has never quite managed to achieve its full economic potential due to over-regulation, lack of national infrastructure, and political corruption. The prospect of free market reform under Modi is enticing for the investment community and could open the floodgates to a lot more capital, but before investors in the U.S. and elsewhere dive in too quickly, they should consider the risks still inherent in the Indian economic landscape as well as in Modi's government more carefully.

????India is a country with 1.2 billion people, of which 30% still live in poverty, and 56% of the workforce is engaged in agriculture even though it contributes only 18% of GDP. Reforming India's economy will therefore require more than just the relaxation of business regulations; it will require a massive reallocation of labor and the retraining of agrarian workers for other professions through better education and vocational training. In addition, only 29% of women in India are in the workforce even though they comprise 50% of the population, which represents the severe underutilization of a valuable resource, and a barrier to progress.

????Modi's government will have to create an infrastructure to rectify these inefficiencies, but given the lack of official resources and India's notorious bureaucratic lethargy, funding and support from the private sector will be crucial for success. It is also important to note that the reorganization of India's labor force will take years, if not decades, to yield results for the economy. All this can push returns down for investors in the short and medium term, and necessitate an upfront financial leap of faith in the country itself.

????Another major challenge for India's free market experiment will be the provincial foundation of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has its roots in religious fundamentalism. Free market economics can't work properly without a truly free society, and the conservative social and political philosophies of Modi's party could prevent that from happening. While the new prime minister has promised to be inclusive, getting rank and file BJP members, many of whom reside in villages and remain mired in traditional social structures such as the caste system, to follow suit will be extremely difficult.

????The rural base of the BJP also poses another risk for Modi's agenda. While India's poor will certainly benefit from economic reform, they are also the most vulnerable to exploitation by corporate forces and may require state-sponsored welfare for subsistence. This creates an obvious contradiction for Modi and a real free market in India. To lift the country economically, capitalist principles must be embraced, but without state control, India's poor and middle class may be left behind. The pseudo economic freedom of the past two decades, which allowed large Indian corporations and foreign companies to prosper, has buoyed India's economy, but because of the narrow concentration of wealth, income inequality, and government corruption, done little to change the fortunes of the common man.

????That should concern foreign investors because of the instability haphazard growth can cause. A widening prosperity gap in India will cause labor problems and political unrest, which can hamper the efforts of the Modi administration to direct even and systematic economic growth.It is tempting to imagine that free market principles can solve all problems but not if the spoils accrue disproportionately to a small segment of the population; and if the BJP fails to keep its promise of prosperity for everyone, they will be ousted as quickly as the left-leaning Congress party was.

????There's also the intractability of corruption in India. Such problems are not because of a lack of rules but because of a widespread disregard for those rules. To eradicate corruption, Modi's administration will have to address it at a cultural and individual level in addition to an institutional one, which is much easier said than done. Ironically too, corruption is a tool for incumbent businesses to protect their hegemony in Indian markets by stifling competition, implying that Modi's anti-corruption agenda could face opposition from powerful private-sector players as well (albeit in the shadows).

????All this is not to say that the new prime minister does not stand a chance, but that the odds are stacked heavily against him, and if investors are depending on real or quick reform, they would be smart to hedge their bets. The current market euphoria could turn out to be a bubble, and an expensive one.

????Sanjay Sanghoee is a political and business commentator. He has worked at investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, as well as at hedge fund Ramius. Sanghoee sits on the Board of Davidson Media Group, a mid-market radio station operator. He has an MBA from Columbia Business School and is also the author of two thriller novels.