????實際上，金融危機以來，美聯(lián)儲估算的經(jīng)濟增長率一直偏高。下圖由投資及金融咨詢機構(gòu)Guggenheim Partners提供。從中可以看出，越靠近2013年，美聯(lián)儲的經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)期就下降得越厲害。最終，美聯(lián)儲預(yù)計2013年美國經(jīng)濟將增長2.1%，但這樣的預(yù)期依然顯得樂觀。原因是，去年美國經(jīng)濟只增長了1.8%。

????In fact, the Fed has consistently overestimated how quickly the economy would grow ever since the financial crisis. The following chart from Guggenheim Partners shows how the Fed’s economic growth expectations last year dropped precipitously as 2013 grew closer. In the end, even their final prediction of GDP growth of roughly 2.1% was optimistic, as the economy only grew 1.8% last year.

????現(xiàn)在，美聯(lián)儲又把2014年美國GDP增長預(yù)期削減了逾0.5個百分點，從2.8%-3.0%下調(diào)到了2.1%-2.3%。雖然聽起來調(diào)整幅度不大，但要知道，GDP增長率每提高1個百分點，就業(yè)機會就會增加大約100萬個。這是一條很準(zhǔn)的規(guī)律。

????鑒于今年第一季度美國經(jīng)濟的年化增長率實際上降到了1%，預(yù)計全年經(jīng)濟增長2.1%就意味著后三個季度經(jīng)濟要有較大幅度的反彈。同時，美聯(lián)儲仍然預(yù)測2015年美國經(jīng)濟增長率為3.0%-3.2%。這也就是說，美聯(lián)儲認(rèn)為今年損失的經(jīng)濟增長率不會在今后幾年得到補償。

????因此，如果第一季度的經(jīng)濟滑坡真的完全都是因為天氣（許多人都這么說），那就應(yīng)該認(rèn)為絕大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟增長都會在天氣情況更好的后三個季度中實現(xiàn)。人們通常認(rèn)為，壞天氣只會延緩經(jīng)濟活動，而不是完全把它扼殺。此外，美聯(lián)儲將自己的長期利率預(yù)期從4.0%下調(diào)到了3.75%。美聯(lián)儲主席珍妮特?耶倫在周三公布貨幣政策后的新聞發(fā)布會上說，這樣做的原因是“長期經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)期略有下降”。

????總之，可以認(rèn)為貨幣政策聲明以及隨后的新聞發(fā)布會表明，美聯(lián)儲認(rèn)可了經(jīng)濟學(xué)家、美國前財政部長拉里?薩默斯最近提出的一項理論。他的理論認(rèn)為，美國經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)進入“長期蕭條”階段，在這期間，需求將不足以支撐美國已經(jīng)習(xí)慣的那種增長水平。

????畢竟，人們都認(rèn)為，衰退之后的經(jīng)濟增長率應(yīng)該超過正常水平。然而，本次衰退過后，美國經(jīng)濟在任何一個年份的增長率都沒能達到3.27%的長期平均水平。就連美聯(lián)儲的最樂觀預(yù)期也只認(rèn)為明年美國經(jīng)濟增速將勉強達到這個水平，而到2016年又將回落至3%，隨后幾年的增長率甚至更低，只有2.3%。

????對于美聯(lián)儲或者聯(lián)邦政府怎樣才能扭轉(zhuǎn)這種趨勢的問題，耶倫在周三的新聞發(fā)布會上沒有做出正面回答。她說希望經(jīng)濟衰退的負(fù)面影響，比如長期失業(yè)率被夸大以及個人信譽受損，能隨著時間的推移而減弱。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????And the Fed’s at it once again, as it reduced its estimate for GDP growth in 2014 by more than half a percentage point, from 2.8%-3.0% down to 2.1%-2.3%. While that may not sound like much, remember that a good rule of thumb is that a single percentage point of GDP growth leads to roughly 1 million new jobs.

????Given that the economy actually shrank at an annual rate of 1% in the first quarter of this year, a projection of 2.1% growth for 2014 implies a relatively large expected bounce back in the remaining quarters. At the same time, the Fed stuck with its projections for 2015 economic growth of 3.0%-3.2%, meaning it doesn’t expect lost economic growth this year to be made up in the years to come.

????So, if the first quarter contraction was really just about the weather (as many have said), you would expect the vast majority of that economic growth to be made up in later quarters when the weather was better. Bad weather is generally thought to simply delay, rather than kill, economic activity. Furthermore, the Fed cut its projections for long-term interest rates from 4.0% to 3.75%, a change that Fed Chair Janet Yellen attributed to “a slight decline in projections for longer term growth,” in a press conference following Wednesday’s policy announcement.

????All in all, the announcement and press conference could be taken as an endorsement of a theory that economist and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has recently put forward, which is that the U.S. economy is entering a period of “secular stagnation” in which there is insufficient demand to support the sort of growth rates the U.S. has become accustomed to.

????After all, economies are supposed to grow above typical trends following recessions, and the U.S. economy has failed to even reach its long-run growth rate trend of 3.27% for any year since the recession ended. Even the Fed’s best-case scenario has the economy growing at roughly that long-term rate next year before falling back to 3% in 2016 and 2.3% per year in the years thereafter.

????When asked what the Fed or the federal government could do to break out of this rut, Yellen evaded the question at the Fed’s press conference on Wednesday, saying that she hoped the damaging effects of the recession–like exaggerated long-term unemployment and damaged household credit worthiness–would wane as time passes.