????歐洲最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體德國目前步履蹣跚，原因是它的三大出口市場(chǎng)也開始像德國一樣有了麻煩。

????德國經(jīng)濟(jì)部周一表示，剔除季節(jié)性因素的影響并按日歷天數(shù)進(jìn)行調(diào)整后，德國5月份工業(yè)產(chǎn)值連續(xù)第三個(gè)月出現(xiàn)滑坡。而且在短期內(nèi)，這項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)看來將保持低迷狀態(tài)。原因是，上周五公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，5月份德國制造商獲得的新訂單減少了1.7%。

????這項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)印證了近幾周市場(chǎng)情緒指數(shù)所反映的情況：雖然研究機(jī)構(gòu)Ifo等方面公布的信心指數(shù)仍然高于長(zhǎng)期平均值，但6月份的預(yù)期指數(shù)已經(jīng)下跌到六個(gè)月以來的最低水平。

????今年前兩個(gè)月，德國工業(yè)產(chǎn)值比往年第一季度平均下跌了1.5%；但德國經(jīng)濟(jì)部表示，市場(chǎng)情緒指數(shù)表明，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)將在下半年再次變得活躍起來。

????這一點(diǎn)在很大程度上將取決于德國以外的因素，原因是一直以來德國都非常依賴出口。

????今年初以來，德國三大出口市場(chǎng)的表現(xiàn)都不盡如人意：法國是德國最大的貿(mào)易伙伴，但它的經(jīng)濟(jì)根本沒有增長(zhǎng)；烏克蘭危機(jī)讓德國的后院，也就是中歐和東歐的商業(yè)信心和投資受到了打擊，進(jìn)而造成俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)基本停滯【德國工商大會(huì)（DIHK）預(yù)計(jì)，今年德國對(duì)俄羅斯和烏克蘭的出口將減少約50億歐元，降幅為10%】。

????就連中國經(jīng)濟(jì)也已經(jīng)明顯放緩，原因是中國政府正在設(shè)法控制過度投資問題。

????歐元區(qū)外圍國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)卻發(fā)生了令人矚目的反轉(zhuǎn)?，F(xiàn)在，讓歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)依然亮麗的正是這些國家——5月份，來自歐元區(qū)的訂單增長(zhǎng)了5.7%（沒有受到法國經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷的影響），而來自歐元區(qū)以外的訂單則下降了5.2%

????有理由認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)減速階段可能已經(jīng)結(jié)束，至少在法國以外是這樣。烏克蘭政府軍周末收復(fù)了東部?jī)勺匾某鞘?，表明烏克蘭的沖突或許能在對(duì)俄制裁不再繼續(xù)升級(jí)的情況下結(jié)束——對(duì)俄羅斯的制裁會(huì)給德國的出口帶來沉重的打擊（還有可能引起俄羅斯的報(bào)復(fù)，從而削減輸送給德國的石油和天然氣）。

????同時(shí)，赴中國訪問的德國總理安格拉?默克爾周一和中國總理李克強(qiáng)會(huì)面時(shí)應(yīng)該可以從后者那里得到一些慰藉。據(jù)路透社報(bào)道，李克強(qiáng)在發(fā)表講話時(shí)重申，中國政府仍然認(rèn)為自己有能力讓今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率保持在不低于7.5%的水平。

????為了配合默克爾的訪問，德國汽車巨擘大眾（Volkswagen）表示將在中國華東地區(qū)投資約27億美元，用于跟中方合資伙伴一汽集團(tuán)共同新建兩座工廠；中方也同意斥資約3億歐元購買100架空中客車（Airbus）生產(chǎn)的直升機(jī)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????Europe’s largest economy is stuttering as problems with three of its most important export markets catch up with it.

????Germany’s Economy Ministry said Monday that industrial output fell for the third month in a row in May, adjusted for seasonal and calendar factors. It also looks set to stay weak for the near future, as data released on Friday showed that new orders to manufacturers slid by 1.7% in May.

????The figures corroborate what sentiment indicators have been saying in recent weeks: although confidence indices such as that of research institute Ifo are still above their long-term averages, expectations hit their lowest level in six months in June.

????Output in the first two months of the spring quarter was down an average of 1.5% from first-quarter levels, although the Ministry said indicators of sentiment suggest activity will pick up again in the second half of the year.

????That will depend to a large degree on factors outside Germany, due to the country’s traditionally heavy reliance on its export sector.

????So far this year, three key export markets have been misfiring: France, Germany’s largest trading partner, isn’t growing at all, and growth in Russia has slowed to a near-standstill as the Ukraine crisis has hit business confidence and investment all across Germany’s backyard in central and eastern Europe. (The German Chamber of Trade and Industry, or DIHK, expects exports to Russia and Ukraine to fall by around €5 billion, or 10% this year.)

????Even in China, the economy has slowed markedly as the authorities try to get to grips with the problems of an investment boom that has gone too far.

????In an eye-catching turnaround, it’s now the recovering eurozone periphery that’s helping to keep the numbers decent: orders from the eurozone rose 5.7% in May (despite French weakness), while those from outside the eurozone fell by 5.2%.

????There are reasons to think that the slowdown may have run its course, at least outside France. The capture of two key cities in eastern Ukraine at the weekend suggests that the conflict there may be ended without any further escalation in sanctions on Russia that would hit German exporters hard (and risk retaliation in the form of reduced oil and gas shipments to Germany).

????Meanwhile, Chancellor Angela Merkel was able to get some reassurances from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in person Monday, during a visit to China. In a speech, Li repeated that the Chinese government still expects to be able to keep growth at no less than 7.5% this year, according to Reuters.

????To mark Merkel’s visit, auto giant Volkswagen AG VLKAY -2.35% said it will invest around $2.7 billion in building two new plants in eastern China together with its local joint venture partner FAW worth $2.7 billion, while China also agreed to buy 100 Airbus EADSY 0.83% helicopters for some €300 million.