????今年第二季度，在德國和意大利經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)欠佳的主要影響下，歐元區(qū)18個(gè)國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長集體陷入停滯。

????據(jù)歐盟統(tǒng)計(jì)局（Eurostat）稱，歐元區(qū)第二季度GDP走勢連續(xù)疲軟，增長速度與第一季度0.2%的增幅相比再度放緩。經(jīng)季節(jié)性因素調(diào)整后，歐元區(qū)GDP與去年同期相比僅微增0.7%。

????歐元區(qū)的這種表現(xiàn)與美國形成了強(qiáng)烈反差，美國第二季度真實(shí)國內(nèi)GDP經(jīng)季節(jié)性調(diào)整后的年增長率為4%。

????這些最新數(shù)據(jù)表明，歐元區(qū)債務(wù)和失業(yè)率高企的問題仍較為突出，同時(shí)金融業(yè)也因歐元危機(jī)的沖擊而尚未恢復(fù)元?dú)?。咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)G+ economics的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家萊娜?克米列娃表示，歐元區(qū)正在經(jīng)歷三重衰退，并指出各主要指標(biāo)均表明自六月以來增長動力不斷削弱，尤其是商業(yè)界的信心已受到烏克蘭危機(jī)的重創(chuàng)。

????這些數(shù)據(jù)也將再次引發(fā)政府間爭論，一方是德國政府和歐洲央行，他們認(rèn)為歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)不振的根源是各國沒能對陳舊的公共部門和福利國家開展大刀闊斧的改革，而另一方則是法國和意大利政府，他們宣稱歐元區(qū)需求之所以受到抑制，是因?yàn)楦鲊ο鳒p赤字，同時(shí)匯率過高。上周意大利就已宣布，今年上半年該國再度陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

????就在法國剛剛宣布第二季度再次陷入零增長后，法國財(cái)政部長邁克爾?薩班就表示放棄政府原定的今年預(yù)算赤字僅占GDP 3.8%的目標(biāo)，因?yàn)槿杲?jīng)濟(jì)增長1%的目標(biāo)已成空中樓閣。他表示，法國已“完全掌控”了支出，且不會通過增加稅收的方式來填補(bǔ)預(yù)算漏洞。

????薩班在《世界報(bào)》（Le Monde）的一篇專欄文章中寫道：“歐洲央行……必須根據(jù)其要求采取所有可能的措施，消除通縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，使歐元價(jià)值重回良好水平?！?/p>

????法國在德國和其他成員國身上花了大筆政治資本，從歐元區(qū)爭取了為期兩年的寬限期，旨在將其預(yù)算赤字拉回占GDP 3%的水平。而上周四西班牙發(fā)表的聲明則將進(jìn)一步考驗(yàn)德國總理默克爾的決心和耐心。現(xiàn)在默克爾需要獲得法國的支持，繼續(xù)施壓意大利和希臘實(shí)施改革。

????但市場在下注默克爾和歐洲央行會很快作出反應(yīng)。由于投資者確信歐洲央行會采取類似美國、英國和日本央行的“量化寬松”政策開始買入政府債券，致使政府債券的收益率跌至歷史新低。比如德國10年期的政府債券收益率已跌至1.00%的歷史新低，而意大利政府債券收益率也跌至2.67%。而股市價(jià)格則普遍上漲，歐洲斯托克600指數(shù)上漲了0.3%。歐元則小幅上漲了0.25美分至1.3403美元。

????貝倫貝格銀行（Berenberg Bank）的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家克里斯蒂安?舒爾茨表示：“今年下半年如果歐洲央行大部分人認(rèn)為有必要采取進(jìn)一步的刺激政策，德國令人失望的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)就應(yīng)會促使德國央行不再反對此舉?！?/p>

????歐盟統(tǒng)計(jì)局并未就GDP預(yù)計(jì)增長情況展開分析，它目前只是一個(gè)初步預(yù)測。而在德國，這一數(shù)字則受到一個(gè)特定情況的拖累，即德國去年反常的暖冬使更多基建工程在今年第一季度完工，基建產(chǎn)出增長了0.7%。這使第二季度的增長相形見絀。但德國統(tǒng)計(jì)局則悲觀地指出，投資和出口偏弱也對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長造成了不利影響。同比去年，在經(jīng)過季節(jié)性和日歷因素調(diào)整后，德國今年GDP增長了1.2%。

????The 18 nations that make up the eurozonefailed to generate economic growth in the second quarter of the year, mostly due to a poor showing in Germany and Italy.

????Gross domestic product was flat in the second quarter on a sequential basis, softening from the first quarter’s 0.2% increase, according to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, seasonally adjusted GDP rose 0.7% in the eurozone.

????The euro zone’s performance is in stark comparison to the results coming out of the U.S., where real gross domestic product jumped 4% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the second quarter.

????The latest data highlight the currency bloc’s continuing problems with high levels of debt and unemployment, and with a financial sector weakened by the euro crisis. Lena Komileva, chief economist with G+ economics, said the Eurozone is on course for a triple-dip recession, pointing to the fact that leading indicators suggest momentum has weakened further since June, not least because the crisis in Ukraine has battered business confidence.

????The data also prepare the ground for another clash between those–such as the German government and the European Central Bank–who think that the root cause of the Eurozone’s weakness is the failure to overhaul outdated public sectors and welfare states, and those such as the French and Italian governments, who claim that demand is being depressed by a fixation with deficit reduction and an exchange rate that is too high. Italy had already announced last week that it slipped back into recession in the first half of this year.

????Immediately after France reported its second straight quarter of zero growth, Finance Minister Michel Sapin abandoned the government’s aim of keeping the budget deficit to only 3.8% of GDP this year, because the growth target of 1% was no longer realistic. He said France had spending “completely under control” and wouldn’t raise taxes to plug any holes in the budget.

????“The ECB…must exhaust its possibilities, in line with its mandate, to make the risk of deflation disappear and to bring the euro back to a more favorable level,” Sapin wrote in an op-ed piece in the newspaper Le Monde.

????France has already spent a lot of political capital with Germany and others in getting a two-year grace period from Eurozone to bring its budget deficit down to 3% of GDP. Sapin’s announcements Thursday will further test the resolve and patience of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who needs French support to keep up the pressure for reform on countries such as Italy and Greece.

????Markets bet on Merkel and the ECB being the first to blink, though. Yields on government bonds fell to new record lows as traders bet that the ECB would start buying bonds in a form of ‘quantitative easing’ akin to U.S., U.K. and Japanese ones. The German 10-year yield fell to a new record low of 1.00%, while Italy’s fell to 2.67%. Stocks were also broadly higher, the Euro Stoxx 600 index rising 0.3%. The euro itself rose a quarter of a cent to $1.3403.

????“Germany’s disappointing performance should weaken Bundesbank opposition to any further stimulus steps should the ECB majority decide they are necessary later this year,” said Berenberg Bank economist Christian Schulz.

????Eurostat gave no breakdown of its GDP estimate, which is only preliminary for now. In Germany, the figures were depressed by the fact that an extraordinarily mild winter allowed more of the year’s construction work to be done in the first quarter, when output rose 0.7%. That made the second look weak by comparison. But statistics office Destatis noted more ominously that weak investment and exports also weighed on the economy. In year-on-year terms, GDP was up 1.2%, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects.