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“別買(mǎi)谷歌股票”——作為投資專家十年前我為什么會(huì)看走眼

“別買(mǎi)谷歌股票”——作為投資專家十年前我為什么會(huì)看走眼

Stephen Gandel 2014-08-22
谷歌上市十周年后,我回顧了一下,發(fā)現(xiàn)自己做出了史上最差的一個(gè)投資建議:別買(mǎi)谷歌的股票。為什么我對(duì)谷歌大大看走了眼?在判斷一家科技公司的股價(jià)上,我由此學(xué)到一些重要的教訓(xùn)。

????十年前,谷歌(Google)進(jìn)行了首次公開(kāi)募股。那時(shí),我認(rèn)為這里面充滿了虛夸成分,并把所有購(gòu)買(mǎi)谷歌股票的人稱為“傻蛋”。我還特意在我為《Money》雜志撰寫(xiě)的文章中單獨(dú)加了一段文字,并以“我的建議”為題寫(xiě)道“別碰這只股票”。事實(shí)證明我錯(cuò)了。

????實(shí)際上,從始至終很少有誰(shuí)給出的投資建議像我錯(cuò)得這么離譜:只有著名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家歐文?費(fèi)舍爾在1929年(大蕭條時(shí)期)曾稱股市前景一片光明,之后便是我了。

????谷歌上市后的股價(jià)為50美元,幾年后股票“一拆二”。當(dāng)時(shí)我說(shuō)他們股票的實(shí)際價(jià)值連這個(gè)數(shù)的一半都不到,大約在20美元左右——我當(dāng)時(shí)非常肯定谷歌股價(jià)將會(huì)暴跌到這個(gè)價(jià)格。但是這種情況卻沒(méi)有發(fā)生。

????十年后,谷歌的股價(jià)為586美元,回報(bào)率高達(dá)約1084%,是同期股市回報(bào)率的10倍。如果那時(shí)你在谷歌投資了一萬(wàn)美元的話,那么現(xiàn)在你的一萬(wàn)美元就變成了118,400美元,比你把錢(qián)投給標(biāo)普500所賺的還要多上97,000美元。聽(tīng)了我的你就虧了!

????為什么我對(duì)谷歌的判斷錯(cuò)的這么離譜?我能從這件事上學(xué)到什么嗎?

????首先,試圖預(yù)估一家公司的確切股價(jià)是極其愚蠢的。我之所以給出谷歌每股20美元的價(jià)格,是因?yàn)槲疫\(yùn)用了那些華爾街和財(cái)經(jīng)專家所謂的現(xiàn)金流貼現(xiàn)模型。我還向紐約大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授阿斯沃斯?達(dá)摩達(dá)蘭求教,因?yàn)樗麑?xiě)了一本如何給公司估值的書(shū)。預(yù)估公司在以后十年間(因?yàn)樵囍A(yù)估更遠(yuǎn)的時(shí)間只能讓你顯得很蠢)盈利的總額,然后參照未來(lái)通脹預(yù)期得出現(xiàn)金流當(dāng)前價(jià)值。這樣,你很快就能算出谷歌或者其他任何公司的市值。

????好吧,有好多方法可以把計(jì)算結(jié)果搞得一團(tuán)糟,而我則都試了個(gè)遍。我第一個(gè)失誤是,預(yù)估谷歌銷售額將會(huì)保持年均30%的穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)。在線廣告市場(chǎng)在不斷增長(zhǎng)中,因此我估計(jì)谷歌將會(huì)從中分一杯羹。但是我萬(wàn)萬(wàn)沒(méi)有想到的是,谷歌得到的哪里只是一杯羹,它得到的幾乎是全部。事實(shí)上,谷歌的收入在過(guò)去十年間保持了年均50%的增長(zhǎng)。

????并且,我一度還認(rèn)為我很可能高估了谷歌的盈利能力。我曾聲稱谷歌極有可能和網(wǎng)景公司(Netscape)一樣葬身于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的發(fā)展洪流中?;谒?dāng)時(shí)的盈利能力,我預(yù)計(jì)谷歌最多能掙480億美元,但我斷言這幾乎不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)。而且,通貨膨脹將吞噬其大部分利潤(rùn)。因此我用每年15%的折現(xiàn)率,估算出這些利潤(rùn)的價(jià)值約為150億美元。

????這與事實(shí)相去甚遠(yuǎn)。谷歌在過(guò)去十年間的實(shí)際現(xiàn)金流超過(guò)900億美元,并且通脹基本上不存在。

????Ten years ago, I called anyone buying into Google’s much hyped IPO a “sucker.” My bottom line, which I helpfully broke out into a separate paragraph titled “My Advice” in my Money magazine article was “stay clear.” Man was I wrong.

????In fact, few investing calls, since the beginning of time, have been more wrong. Leading economist Irving Fisher calling stocks cheap in 1929. And then there’s me.

????Google’s shares started trading at $50, adjusted for a2-for-1 splita few years later. I said they were worth less than half that, around $20. And I was pretty sure they would soon nosedive to that price. They never did.

????A decade later, Google’s shares now trade for $586. That’s a 1084% return, roughly 10 times what the stock market did at the same time. If you had invested $10,000 in Google then, you would now have $118,400, or $97,000more than what you would had if you invested the same money in the S&P 500. You’re welcome!

????So why was I so utterly wrong about Google? Can I learn anything about investing from this call?

????First of all, trying to come up with an exact price for what a company is worth is the true suckers game. To come up with my $20 a share for Google, I used what Wall Streeters and finance professors call a discounted cash flow model. And I sought out the advice of New YorkUniversity economics professor Aswath Damodaran, who wrote a textbook about how to value companies, to do it. Estimate all the money you think a company is going to generate over the next decade (because try to estimate beyond that and you are bound to look pretty silly), and then figure out what, based on future inflation, that cash flow would be worth today. And presto, you will know what Google, or any company should be worth.

????Ok, so there were a number of ways to mess this up, and I did all of them. My first mistake was to assume that Google’s sales growth would be a stable 30% a year. Online advertising was increasing, and I figured Google would get a slice of that. What I didn’t understand was that Google wouldn’t just get a slice, but nearly all of it. As a result, Google’s revenue has grown an average of 50% a year over the past decade.

????Also, I thought there was a high probability that I was overestimating how profitable Google could be. I said there was a strong possibility that Google would end up with Netscape in the internet graveyard. Based on its current profitability, I said Google could earn $48 billion over its lifetime. But that, I said, was unlikely. What’s more, inflation would eat up the value of a lot of those profits. So I used a discount rate of 15%, per year, to figure out that the value of those profits was more like $15 billion.

????Not even close. Google’s actual cash flow over the past decade has been just over $90 billion, and inflation has been basically non-existent.

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