????即使上述的數(shù)字都是正確的，我也無法依靠這些數(shù)字預(yù)測到谷歌的股價會在2014年達到近600美元。但是，我還以為股票的回購價在50美元。

????第二，一些公司確實能做到名符其實，事實上，可能比我們預(yù)期的還要好。我同達莫達蘭聯(lián)系，聊起這個10年前的錯誤。他告訴我不需要為此太過介意，他認為在公司估值問題上，失誤率一般都在20%左右。對我來說絕不止這個數(shù)字。很多在十年前被我視作成功的公司現(xiàn)在都已經(jīng)輝煌不再。不過，其中倒是也沒有八家公司破產(chǎn)。

????這些公司在未來十年的表現(xiàn)可能會超出預(yù)期。因此，我們應(yīng)該問的并不是一家公司在下個十年到底能掙多少錢，而是從現(xiàn)在開始十年后，它是否還會存在。假設(shè)它依然存在，那么它會比你預(yù)計的還要成功。

????最后，那些成功的公司往往比你想象的還要有價值，這就是股市的本性。我們都在追逐同一批為數(shù)不多的股票，市場永遠在隨大流。我們認為市場和所有的買入賣出都是建立在對公司價值的精確估值上。這就是有效市場假說。但事實正好相反，股票市場和其他市場一樣，好的東西往往比你的預(yù)估更有價值，而壞的東西則會被過高估價。

????哥倫比亞大學(xué)（Columbia）權(quán)威專家布魯斯?格林沃德說我并不應(yīng)該因為錯估了谷歌公司而這么沮喪。十年前，搜索市場在不斷變化，好多東西還不完善。但是，我本應(yīng)該知道谷歌公司并不會垮掉，而且隨著在線廣告蓬勃發(fā)展，該公司就會掌握整個廣告行業(yè)。簡言之，我應(yīng)該明白谷歌公司并不只是一家普通的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司，它是一家領(lǐng)先業(yè)界的、獨一無二的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司。而我當(dāng)時并不知道這一點。

????我從中學(xué)到的東西是：十年前，我認為價格是投資股市時最重要的元素?，F(xiàn)在我覺得這種理解是不正確的。而谷歌給我上了生動的一課，使我深刻意識到，在投資時最重要的是要選擇正確的公司。只要選擇正確，你買的股票就就不會讓你失望。

????你怎么才能知道哪些公司會成功呢？這是我要闡釋的第二點，這也是更為有用的一點。我從谷歌案例上學(xué)到的是：購買指數(shù)基金。我無法預(yù)知未來，你能么？想要選擇好的股票，你必須有準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測未來的能力。因此別費力去預(yù)測了，你只需要買標(biāo)普500上的股票。如果有公司終會成功，比如谷歌的例子，那么放心，它們最終會出現(xiàn)在指數(shù)上。

????谷歌上市成功的幾個月后，其股票攀升到約61美元，那時我再一次建議大家別碰這只股票。相反的，我還建議去買eBay。我又錯了！eBay的股票從那時起只升值了17%。我還曾建議別去買雅虎（Yahoo）的股票，這個倒是對的，但是這不足以抹去我曾經(jīng)給出史上最差投資建議的事實。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????If I had gotten that number correct, and trusted it, I still wouldn’t have predicted that Google’s shares would be near $600 by 2014. But I would have thought the stock was a buy back at $50.

????Second, some companies do live up to their hype. Actually, probably more than most of us expect. Damodaran, who I called up to chat about our decade old folly, said not to be so down on trying to value companies. He thinks you will be wrong 20% of the time. That seems low to me. A number of companies that I thought were successes a decade ago have faltered. But I can’t think of eight high profile busts.

????The companies that are still around a decade from now will probably perform better than expected. So the better question is not what the company will earn over the next ten years, but will it be around ten years from now. And then just assume if it is, it will do much better than you expect.

????Lastly, the companies that succeed are always going to be worth more than you think they are worth. That’s the nature of the stock market. We’re all chasing the same few stocks. And the market moves in herds. We think of the market and all the buying and selling as a way to come at the exact price a company is worth. That’s the efficient market hypothesis. Instead, the market for stocks works like any other market. The good stuff always costs more than you think it should. And the bad stuff is always overpriced.

????Bruce Greenwald, Columbia’s reigning expert when it comes to investing, says I shouldn’t feel so bad about being so wrong about Google. A decade ago, the search business still seemed in flux. So again, I would have had to have known that Google wasn’t going away, and that it along with online advertising was going to take over the advertising world. In short, I had to know that Google was not just another Internet company, but the Internet company. I did not know that.

????So here’s what I think I have learned: A decade ago, I thought price was the most important thing when it came to investing in stocks. That doesn’t seem right to me. The lesson of Google is that the most important thing when it comes to investing is picking the right companies. Get that right, and the price you pay for their shares is always going to be a good bet.

????How do you know what companies will succeed? That leads me to my second, and more useful, lesson from my experience with Google: Buy index funds. I don’t know the future. Do you? And you kind of have to know the future really well to pick individual stocks. So don’t do it. Just buy the S&P 500. If the companies are successful, like Google, they will end up in the index eventually.

????A few months after the IPO’s success, when Google’s stock had risen to the equivalent of $61, I again advised avoiding the stock. Instead, I said to buy eBay . Wrong, again. eBay’s stock is up a pathetic 17% since then. Although I also said to avoid the shares of Yahoo –a good call, but not enough to get me off the hook for the worst investment call of all time.