????的確，傳聞經(jīng)常引起波瀾的原因并不是要發(fā)生什么事，而是人們認(rèn)為將要發(fā)生，或者應(yīng)該發(fā)生什么事。投資者同樣關(guān)注這些潛在并購(gòu)信號(hào)，分析某些和并購(gòu)有關(guān)的金融和經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)，仔細(xì)聆聽(tīng)首席執(zhí)行官和首席財(cái)務(wù)官的并購(gòu)興趣，以尋找蛛絲馬跡。擺放在大多數(shù)職業(yè)投資者和交易員案頭的彭博（Bloomberg）終端不停地滾動(dòng)著一份“全球潛在收購(gòu)目標(biāo)”名單。目前，這份名單上的公司已經(jīng)超過(guò)3300家。

????投資公司Barrow Street Advisors已將其注意力從私募股權(quán)轉(zhuǎn)向共同基金。該公司指出，2009年以來(lái)，真正被收購(gòu)的美國(guó)公司有987家，而它持有其中60家公司的股份，占了整整6%，是整個(gè)市場(chǎng)平均水平的三倍以上。該公司主管大衛(wèi)?貝克特爾說(shuō)：“我們當(dāng)然不會(huì)從傳聞中尋找思路?！彼赋觯摴緦ふ业耐顿Y對(duì)象都有讓收購(gòu)方感興趣的特點(diǎn)。

????不過(guò)，條件恰當(dāng)時(shí)，投資者幾乎會(huì)相信任何跟并購(gòu)有關(guān)的消息——當(dāng)有人抱著這份信心開(kāi)始交易時(shí)，其他人也會(huì)更加相信這個(gè)消息，并且也會(huì)開(kāi)始進(jìn)行同樣的交易，從而讓相關(guān)股票變得誘人，也讓期權(quán)市場(chǎng)變得熱鬧起來(lái)。聯(lián)博資產(chǎn)管理公司（Alliance Bernstein）前證券投資經(jīng)理斯科特?華萊土最近在芝加哥成立了對(duì)沖基金公司Shorepath Capital Management。他說(shuō)：“最終，如果出現(xiàn)了傳聞，就會(huì)有人覺(jué)得可信，隨后就會(huì)有人在股市里采取和傳聞所指方向一致的行動(dòng)，這就會(huì)引起很多人的注意。有許多人相信的傳聞就是好傳聞。如果相關(guān)股票隨之而動(dòng)，那就可能意味著別人掌握了我不知道的信息?！?/p>

????投資老手都說(shuō)，華爾街妥善地隱藏著一個(gè)秘密，那就是專(zhuān)業(yè)交易員相互交換想法的頻繁程度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)了合規(guī)部門(mén)允許的水平。當(dāng)這些交易員在股東大會(huì)上見(jiàn)面，相互打電話，或者通過(guò)網(wǎng)絡(luò)論壇進(jìn)行交流時(shí)，交易所一般都被蒙在鼓里。

????蘭迪說(shuō)：“有了社交媒體，你就不必再通過(guò)高層中的朋友來(lái)了解人們的想法了。這些消息會(huì)迅速而廣泛地傳播開(kāi)來(lái)?！彼慷眠@種情況——他在一篇分析師評(píng)論中猜測(cè)某家公司可能成為別人收購(gòu)的對(duì)象。幾經(jīng)加工后，他的保守猜想讓整個(gè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)都把這家公司視為收購(gòu)目標(biāo)，后者的股價(jià)因此大幅上漲。

????當(dāng)然，如果投資者分享的不僅僅是個(gè)假設(shè)，而是有關(guān)未來(lái)并購(gòu)的機(jī)密信息，就會(huì)出現(xiàn)問(wèn)題?；谶@樣的非公開(kāi)信息采取行動(dòng)叫做內(nèi)幕交易，這是違法行為。

????不過(guò)，傳聞開(kāi)始四處流傳的原因往往是投資者就某個(gè)特定并購(gòu)思路尋找反饋意見(jiàn)，或者一些打著如意算盤(pán)的人（比如股東和投行人士）有意延續(xù)這些傳聞；又或者做預(yù)測(cè)就是那么有意思，就像《財(cái)富》雜志在今年1月刊中體會(huì)到的那樣——當(dāng)時(shí)《財(cái)富》正在猜測(cè)美國(guó)電話電報(bào)（AT&T）和沃達(dá)豐（Vodafone）以及亞馬遜（Amazon）和美國(guó)郵政（United States Postal Service）會(huì)不會(huì)合并。

????以StockTwits為例，這家網(wǎng)站專(zhuān)門(mén)通過(guò)最多140個(gè)字符的帖子共享股市投資思路，其中許多帖子都涉及潛在并購(gòu)對(duì)象。該網(wǎng)站創(chuàng)始人霍華德?林德扎說(shuō)：“我就是這么做的。我會(huì)思考‘Twitter收購(gòu)這家公司，或者那家公司買(mǎi)下這家公司是否合理？’這可不是內(nèi)幕交易，這只是分享一個(gè)想法，看看是不是有人也這樣想?！?/p>

????Indeed, rumors frequently swirl not because something is going to happen, but rather because people think it will…or should. Investors watch for the same signals of potential deals, analyzing certain financial and economic measures associated with acquisitions, and listening for hints of M&A interest from CEOs and CFOs. Bloomberg terminals—on the desks of most pro investors and traders—keep a running list of “potential global takeover targets” that currently number more than 3,300.

????Barrow Street Advisors, an investment firm that has switched its focus from private equity to mutual funds, points out that 60 of its portfolio holdings have been acquired since 2009—a full 6% of the 987 U.S. companies that were actually acquired during the period, which is more than triple the acquisition rate for the market as a whole. “And that’s without going to the rumor mill for ideas,” boasts David Bechtel, a principal at Barrow, saying that his firm looks for companies with the same characteristics that buyout firms would find attractive.

????When the right factors are present, though, investors will believe almost any whisper of a deal—and when someone begins trading on that belief, it strengthens the belief of others, who often start trading, too, juicing the stocks and lighting up the options market. “At the end of the day, if there is a rumor, and there is credibility—and there’s action in the stock market that points in the direction of the rumor—that’s something that a lot of people would pay attention to,” says Scott Wallace, a former Alliance Bernstein portfolio manager who recently launched a hedge fund firm in Chicago, Shorepath Capital Management. “What makes a good rumor is a lot of people believe it. And if the stock’s moving on it, then maybe they know something I don’t know.”

????A well-kept Wall Street secret, say veteran investors, is that professional traders bounce ideas off each other much more often than their compliance departments would allow. The exchanges are typically behind the scenes, when they run into each other at shareholder meetings, or chat over the phone or in online forums.

????“With social media, you don’t have to have friends in high places to see what people are thinking,” Landy says. “And that can be spread wild and fast.” Landy has seen this firsthand—when he speculated in an analyst commentary that a certain company could be a takeover candidate. His gentle musing snowballed into the company being labeled a target all over the web, bumping up the stock’s price.

????Of course, problems arise when investors share not a mere hypothesis, but rather confidential intel about a future M&A deal. Acting on such non-public information is known as insider trading, and it’s illegal.

????But often, rumors begin to circulate because investors are looking for feedback on a particular M&A theory—or wishful thinkers (say, shareholders and investment bankers) perpetuate them. Or because it’s just fun to make predictions, as Fortune learned when, in our January issue, we took odds on potential mergers between AT&T and Vodafone , and Amazon and the United States Postal Service.

????Take, for example, Howard Lindzon, the founder of StockTwits, the site dedicated to sharing stock ideas in 140-character posts—many of which include potential M&A candidates, he says. “I do it. I’ll speculate on my stream, ‘Wouldn’t it make sense if Twitter bought this company, or that company bought this one?’” Lindzon says. “It’s not insider trading; it’s just sharing an idea. Just to see if somebody else is thinking the same thing.”