????今年夏初，許多投資者在這方面吃了大虧。6月中旬，總部位于明尼阿波利斯的醫(yī)療器械制造商Medtronic發(fā)布公告稱，該公司將斥資430億美元收購(gòu)愛(ài)爾蘭競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手Covidien。幾周來(lái)，倫敦和紐約等地的分析師一直覺(jué)得Medtronic正在歐洲挑選收購(gòu)對(duì)象，目的是通過(guò)和當(dāng)?shù)毓竞喜?lái)降低稅率，就像其他幾家美國(guó)醫(yī)療保健企業(yè)最近所做的那樣。

????有些分析師從字里行間看出，這只是Medtronic將收購(gòu)誰(shuí)的問(wèn)題。而Covidien一直都沒(méi)有參與到這個(gè)“傳聞鏈”中。6月4日，有消息稱Medtronic將收購(gòu)英國(guó)人工關(guān)節(jié)制造商Smith & Nephew。相關(guān)媒體報(bào)道讓Smith & Nephew的股價(jià)上漲了12%。Summer Street Research Partners分析師蘭迪上調(diào)了Smith & Nephew的目標(biāo)價(jià)。蘭迪承認(rèn)，接受記者采訪時(shí)，自己讓這條消息變得更加可信。蘭迪說(shuō)：“有關(guān)Medtronic的傳聞出現(xiàn)時(shí)，我說(shuō)這很合情合理，原因是在我看來(lái)，Smith & Nephew對(duì)Medtronic來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)切實(shí)的收購(gòu)目標(biāo)?！?/p>

????當(dāng)Covidien披露真正的收購(gòu)目標(biāo)后，幾乎沒(méi)有哪個(gè)兜售傳聞的人公開(kāi)承認(rèn)了自己的錯(cuò)誤。相反，投資者和分析師開(kāi)始再次醞釀傳聞，他們猜想這個(gè)行業(yè)中的其他公司，比如強(qiáng)生（Johnson & Johnson）和史塞克公司（Stryker）也可能發(fā)起收購(gòu)。

????本著讓傳聞延續(xù)下去的精神，幾名投資者向《財(cái)富》透露了他們?cè)诓①?gòu)方面的預(yù)期。有人在Mergerize.com上預(yù)測(cè)蘋(píng)果公司將收購(gòu)照相機(jī)廠商GoPro；還有人將一個(gè)關(guān)于Joy Global公司成為大宗期權(quán)交易對(duì)象的Twitter帖子解讀為，這家設(shè)在密爾沃基州的采礦設(shè)備公司可能被收購(gòu)，德羅根對(duì)此表示贊同。

????華萊士說(shuō)，他一直在關(guān)注半導(dǎo)體公司博通（Broadcom），后者正計(jì)劃剝離那些表現(xiàn)不夠理想的業(yè)務(wù)，“擺脫這些業(yè)務(wù)后，博通就會(huì)成為一個(gè)良好的收購(gòu)整合機(jī)會(huì)……”開(kāi)始猜吧。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????Many investors learned this the hard way earlier this summer, when Minneapolis-based medical device maker Medtronic announced in mid-June that it would buy its Irish competitor Covidienfor $43 billion. For weeks, analysts from London to New York had been speculating that Medtronic had been shopping in Europe, looking to merge with a company there to secure a lower tax rate, as several other U.S. health care companies had recently done.

????For analysts reading between the lines, it was just a matter of who Medtronic would buy. Covidien, though, had never been part of the chain of rumors. By June 4, there were whispers that Medtronic would acquire British artificial joint manufacturer Smith &Nephew , whose shares rose 12% on the media reports. Landy, the Summer Street analyst, raised his price target for Smith & Nephew, and concedes that he helped perpetuate the theory when reporters called him. “When the Medtronic rumor broke, I said that makes good sense,” Landy says, “because to me, Smith & Nephew was a viable target for Medtronic.”

????When the actual target—Covidien—was announced, few rumor-mongers publicly admitted their mistake. Instead, investors and analysts began churning the rumor mill anew, speculating that other industry players, such as Johnson & Johnson and Stryker , might launch bids of their own.

????In the spirit of keeping the gossip going, several investors shared their own takeover theories with Fortune. Drogen agreed with one Mergerize prediction that Apple would buy GoPro, and interpreted a Twitter post about heavy options trading on Joy Global as a sign that the Milwaukee mining-equipment company might soon be acquired. Shortly after, Joy Global shares surged 8% in a single day. The reason? What else? Acquisition rumors.

????Wallace says he’s been watching Broadcom , a semiconductor company that is planning to sell off one of its underperforming units: “Once they get rid of that,” he says, “the rest of the business would make for a nice consolidation opportunity for somebody to buy….” Let the speculation begin.