阿里巴巴IPO：對投資者來說這是一筆“撿漏”的買賣
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????阿里巴巴最大的問題可能集中在“大數(shù)法則”上。阿里巴巴網(wǎng)站上已經(jīng)銷售了近3000億美元的商品。達(dá)摩達(dá)蘭的66美元股價估值是基于未來10年阿里巴巴銷售額將增長500%的預(yù)期，而1.5萬億美元對于阿里巴巴看起來似乎遙不可及。沃爾瑪（Wal-Mart）去年的銷售額僅為這一數(shù)額的三分之一。 ????但阿里巴巴并不是一家美國零售商。它身處中國零售市場_——全球增長最快的經(jīng)濟(jì)體中增長最快的一個領(lǐng)域。這些數(shù)字將會變得非常巨大。 ????不過，阿里巴巴并不將其網(wǎng)站上銷售的商品總額記為收入。阿里巴巴通常在其網(wǎng)站上銷售其他公司的商品，并收取交易服務(wù)費。它將這些服務(wù)費記為收入。目前，這些服務(wù)費只相當(dāng)于阿里巴巴網(wǎng)站總銷售額的3%，最近一個財務(wù)年度總計84億美元。達(dá)摩達(dá)蘭表示，未來十年這些服務(wù)費須增至470億美元，才值得以66美元買進(jìn)該公司股票。 ????但要實現(xiàn)這一點，阿里巴巴的總銷售額不一定要達(dá)到500%的增長率。隨著阿里巴巴規(guī)模繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大，它可以要求賣家或買家支付更高比例的服務(wù)費。如果阿里巴巴將其平均服務(wù)費率提高至5%，未來十年銷售額只需增加兩倍就能實現(xiàn)達(dá)摩達(dá)蘭的預(yù)期。如果費率提高至10%，銷售額甚至都不需翻番。 ????另外，為了估量阿里巴巴的公允價值，投資者還必須考慮利潤率，這很重要。去年，阿里巴巴將接近一半的服務(wù)費納入營運利潤。這樣的營運利潤率幾乎是谷歌的兩倍?；诖耍_(dá)摩達(dá)蘭認(rèn)為，即便該公司的增長率在今后10年降至2%，阿里巴巴也只需11年多一點就能賺回其IPO籌集的資本。這相當(dāng)不錯了。相比之下，基于當(dāng)前收益，市值3950億美元的谷歌需要用28年才能賺回IPO籌集的資本。 ????所有這些都是基于投資者以IPO價格獲得阿里巴巴的股票。但是，正如杜利所講，即便該股首日交易大漲25%至82.50美元，其靜態(tài)市盈率仍只有36倍。這樣的市盈率肯定算高，但遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于Facebook 100倍的市盈率和亞馬遜500倍的市盈率。 ????阿里巴巴股票或許不是讓“四十大盜”狂喜的那種寶藏，但很可能是我們在IPO市場上迄今為止，以及未來很長一段時間內(nèi)，能見到的一樁可以“撿漏”的好買賣。（財富中文網(wǎng)） ????譯者：早稻米 |
????Alibaba’s biggest problem could center on the law of big numbers. Alibaba already sells nearly $300 billion worth of merchandise on its site. Damodaran’s $66 stock price estimate is based on Alibaba’s sales rising 500% over the next decade, and $1.5 billion sounds like an impossibly large amount of stuff for Alibaba to sell. Wal-Mart’s sales were a third of that last year. ????But Alibaba isn’t an American retailer. It’s in Chinese retailing, the fastest growing segment of the fastest growing economy in the world. The numbers are going to get large. ????What’s more, Alibaba doesn’t count the total dollars generated by the sales of the goods on its site as revenue. Alibaba generally sells other companies’ merchandise on its website and collects a fee from buyers and sellers. It records those fees as its revenue. Right now, those fees equal a slim 3% of the total sales on its site, or $8.4 billion in its last fiscal year. Damodaran says those commissions have to grow to $47 billion over the next decade to make it worth buying the stock at $66. ????But Alibaba’s total sales don’t have to increase by 500% to get there. As Alibaba gets larger, it could force sellers, or buyers, to hand over a bigger slice of those sales. If Alibaba increases its average fees to 5%, its sales only have to triple over the next decade to achieve Damodaran’s predictions. If the fees go up to 10%, then sales don’t even have to double. ????Still, to justify Alibaba’s value, you have to consider its profit margins, which are huge. Last year, Alibaba retained nearly half of its fees as operating profits. That’s nearly double the operating margins of Google. Based on that, Damodaran thinks that even if the company’s growth rate drops to 2% a decade from now, it will take Alibaba a little over 11 years to earn back the money it raises in its IPO. That’s not bad. By comparison, it would take Google 28 years to justify its $395 billion market cap, based on its current earnings. ????All of this is based on investors getting Alibaba shares at its IPO price. Still, even if the stock jumps 25% on its first day, as Tully suggests, to $82.50, its trailing p/e would still only be 36. High, for sure. But still far lower than Facebook’s p/e of 100, and Amazon’s 500. ????Alibaba shares may not be as much of a steal as Alibaba’s thieves might have liked, but they are as close to a bargain as we have seen, and are likely to see, in the IPO market in a long time. |
