美元會持續(xù)升值嗎?
????別看了,美元正在高歌猛進(jìn)。我的同事杰弗里?史密斯的觀點(diǎn)如下: ????“美元指數(shù)(U.S. Dollar Index)衡量美元兌六種主要西方貨幣的走勢,但不涉及人民幣等新興市場貨幣。第三季度該指數(shù)上漲了7.1%,是2008年市場出現(xiàn)恐慌行情以來增長最快的一個(gè)季度……作為主要國際儲備貨幣,美元兌巴西雷亞爾和墨西哥比索創(chuàng)下了7個(gè)月新高,兌印度盧比也接近6個(gè)月來的最高點(diǎn)。在主要貿(mào)易伙伴國貨幣中,唯一沒有對美元貶值的是人民幣,部分原因是中國工業(yè)部門對大宗商品(以美元計(jì)價(jià))的需求下降?!?/p> ????沒錯(cuò),盡管近年來許多人都警告說美聯(lián)儲(Fed)的政策正在摧毀美元的價(jià)值,但美元匯率卻達(dá)到了金融危機(jī)以來的最高點(diǎn)。正如史密斯指出的那樣,美元飆升的短期原因很明顯,那就是美聯(lián)儲開始壓縮債券購買規(guī)模,而日本央行則繼續(xù)將儲備資金注入該國銀行體系,同時(shí)歐洲也在考慮啟動歐洲版量化寬松政策。但除此以外,經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面也是美元走強(qiáng)的原因。同時(shí),有理由相信這些趨勢可能有利于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)。 ????那么,除了刺激性措施的作用,美元兌其他貨幣的匯率為什么會上揚(yáng)呢?最合理的解釋是美國和世界其他地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率存在差異。三年來,歐元區(qū)18國的經(jīng)濟(jì)基本處于停滯狀態(tài)。最新數(shù)據(jù)表明,作為歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)兩大傳統(tǒng)動力的德國和法國今年二季度不是萎縮就是持平。過去五年中,日本實(shí)際GDP增長率超過2%的時(shí)間只有四分之一。與之相比,上一季度美國4.2%的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率就顯得強(qiáng)勁得多。 ????標(biāo)準(zhǔn)經(jīng)濟(jì)理論認(rèn)為,投資者會轉(zhuǎn)移到增長較快的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。要做到這一點(diǎn),他們就得購買這個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的貨幣。就目前的全球局勢而言,這就意味著美元需求量將上升,因?yàn)橥顿Y者需要買入美元,以便投資于相對強(qiáng)勢的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)。 ????那出口呢?有人認(rèn)為,世界就要陷入一系列貨幣戰(zhàn)爭,原因是各國央行都在壓低本國貨幣的價(jià)值,目的是讓出口產(chǎn)品變得更便宜,同時(shí)提振國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)。這種觀點(diǎn)的邏輯基礎(chǔ)是央行不會降低刺激性政策力度。但至少就美國來說,允許量化寬松推動低迷的日本和歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)增長顯然會讓美國經(jīng)濟(jì)受益,盡管這樣做意味著美元匯率將上升。宏觀研究機(jī)構(gòu)Renaissance Macro Research經(jīng)濟(jì)研究主管尼爾?杜塔在本周寫給客戶的報(bào)告中指出:“雖然美元升值讓進(jìn)口價(jià)格壓力處于低點(diǎn),而且有損出口競爭力,但美國是一個(gè)相當(dāng)封閉的經(jīng)濟(jì)體?;蛘哒f,美元波動對進(jìn)口價(jià)格和出口活動的影響相當(dāng)小。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和出口之間的彈性遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過美元(的相對價(jià)值)。” ????換句話說,和有利的匯率環(huán)境相比,日本和歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長對美國出口商以及整個(gè)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)更為有利。 ????鑒于其他發(fā)達(dá)國家面臨著和美國一樣的障礙,比如人口老齡化、貧富差距加大以及工資停止增長,幾乎沒有理由不相信美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度將繼續(xù)超過前者。這個(gè)因素正在推升美元,再加上其他國家和地區(qū)剛剛開始實(shí)施貨幣性刺激措施,今后幾年美元可能繼續(xù)處于王者地位。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)) ????譯者:Charlie |
????Don’t look now, but the U.S. dollar is on a tear. Here’s my colleague Geoffrey Smith with the details: ????“The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the buck against six major western currencies but not against emerging market currencies such as China’s yuan, has risen 7.1% in the third quarter, its biggest quarterly rise since the 2008 market panic . . . the world’s premier reserve currency is also at seven-month highs against Brazil’s real and Mexico’s peso, and near a six-month high against India’s rupee. The only major trading partner it isn’t strengthening against is the yuan, partly because of weaker demand for commodities (which are priced in dollars) from a slowing Chinese industrials sector.” ????That’s right, despite the manywarnings in recent years that Fed policies are destroying the value of the dollar, the greenback hasn’t been stronger since the financial crisis. As Smith points out, the short-term reasons for the dollar’s surge is clear: the Federal Reserve is winding down its bond buying program while Japan is still pumping reserves into its banking system and Europe is considering a quantitative easing program of its own. But beyond these, there are fundamental economic reasons for the dollar’s rise, as well as reasons to believe that these trends could bode well for the global economy. ????So why, beyond stimulus measures, is the dollar gaining value against foreign currencies? The best explanation is the difference in growth rates between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Growth in the 18-member eurozone has basically been stagnant for three years now, with the most recent readings showing that the usual engines of its economy, Germany and France, shrank or stalled in the second quarter of 2014. Japan, meanwhile, has only had one quarter of real GDP growth above 2% in the past five years, which makes the U.S. economy’s latest quarterly growth reading of 4.2% look a lot better. ????Standard economic theory says that investors will flock to economies that are growing faster, and to do that, they need to buy the currency of that economy. In today’s world, that means the dollar will be in greater demand because investors will need to buy dollars to invest into the relatively strong American economy. ????But what about exports? The logic of the argument that the world is descending into a series of currency wars–whereby central banks around the world are devaluing their currency in order to make their exports cheaper and boost their domestic economies–depends on central banks not letting up on stimulus. But at least in the case of the U.S., it’s clear that the American economy would benefit from allowing QE programs to help boost the sluggish Japanese and European economies to grow, even if it means a stronger dollar. As Neil Dutta, head of Economics for Renaissance Macro Research, wrote in a note to clients this week, “While a rising dollar keeps import price pressures low and hurts export competitiveness, the US is a fairly closed economy. That is, dollar movements have a fairly small impact on import prices and export activity.” He goes on to write, “There is a much more elastic relationship between global growth and exports than the [the relative value of] the dollar.” ????In other words, It’s better for U.S. exporters, and the broader U.S. economy, that Japan and the EU are growing quickly than to have a favorable exchange rate situation. ????And with the rest of the developed world facing the same hurdles as the U.S. in terms of aging populations, growing inequality, and stagnant wage growth, there’s little reason to believe that the U.S. won’t continue to outpace the rate of growth of the rest of the developed world. With that tailwind at the dollars back, and monetary stimulus just now getting underway in other parts of the world, we could see King Dollar reigning for years to come. |