????如果市場(chǎng)對(duì)明顯的好消息都無(wú)動(dòng)于衷，那說(shuō)明狀況確實(shí)不妙。

????由于擔(dān)心全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩步伐過(guò)快，各國(guó)股市上周均陷入恐慌。因此，人們可能盼著，世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體——中國(guó)的外貿(mào)數(shù)據(jù)能超出預(yù)期，在本周給大家注入些許樂(lè)觀(guān)情緒。

????今年9月份，中國(guó)出口同比增長(zhǎng)15.3%，高于8月份9.4%的增速，比12%的預(yù)測(cè)值也高出不少。對(duì)美國(guó)和歐洲市場(chǎng)的發(fā)貨量均增長(zhǎng)了15%左右。考慮到德國(guó)、法國(guó)和意大利等歐洲國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)已幾乎陷入停滯，對(duì)歐出口的增長(zhǎng)看來(lái)成果尤為顯著。

????然而，亞洲股市周一仍跌跌不休，部分原因是人們擔(dān)心上述數(shù)據(jù)可能有些靠不住——這種擔(dān)心也不是第一次出現(xiàn)了。上證指數(shù)和日經(jīng)指數(shù)分別下跌了0.4%和1.2%。

????具體來(lái)看，9月份中國(guó)內(nèi)地對(duì)香港出口同比猛增34%，而8月份對(duì)香港出口剛下跌了2.1%。這在一定程度上表明，中國(guó)出口數(shù)據(jù)的增長(zhǎng)很大程度上可能并非源于真實(shí)的出口貿(mào)易，而是源自變相外匯市場(chǎng)投機(jī)的影響。

????中國(guó)的資本賬戶(hù)控制很?chē)?yán)格，只允許根據(jù)實(shí)際貿(mào)易需要來(lái)購(gòu)匯和結(jié)匯。因此，內(nèi)地企業(yè)經(jīng)常向自己的香港子公司虛開(kāi)發(fā)票，制造有名無(wú)實(shí)的進(jìn)出口交易，以便擴(kuò)大或縮小自身對(duì)外匯市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)敞口。澳新銀行（ANZ）分析師指出，對(duì)香港出口的增長(zhǎng)“正值過(guò)去幾個(gè)月人民幣再次升值”。

????不過(guò)，中國(guó)進(jìn)出口數(shù)據(jù)的另一面，顯現(xiàn)出了更令人鼓舞的信號(hào)——進(jìn)口在8月份下跌2.4%后，在9月份同比增長(zhǎng)了7%，但上升原因可能并不如中國(guó)政府或西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所愿。在很大程度上，帶動(dòng)當(dāng)月進(jìn)口增長(zhǎng)的是原油以及（用于煉鋼的）鐵礦石進(jìn)口增加。中國(guó)政府正努力向內(nèi)需驅(qū)動(dòng)型經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型，而上述數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)難作為轉(zhuǎn)型的有力證據(jù)。

????今年，中國(guó)政府的目標(biāo)是保持約7.5%的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率，而國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）仍維持對(duì)中國(guó)今明兩年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率分別為7.4%和7.1%的預(yù)測(cè)。IMF上周下調(diào)了對(duì)全球大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期，其悲觀(guān)預(yù)測(cè)成為引發(fā)股市下跌的原因之一。許多分析師擔(dān)心，房地產(chǎn)泡沫破裂會(huì)導(dǎo)致中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)更加急劇的減速。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????You know things in the markets are bad when they don’t even react well to what appears to be good news.

????Fears that the world economy was slowing down too fast threw global stock markets into a funk last week, so it might have been expected that better-than-forecast trade data from China, the world’s second-largest economy, would have injected a bit of optimism into everyone’s Monday morning.

????China’s exports rose 15.3% on the year in September, accelerating from a rate of 9.4% in August and comfortably above the 12% expected. Shipments to the U.S. and E.U. both grew by around 15%, a particularly decent clip in the case of Europe, where Germany, France and Italy have all but ground to a halt.

????But Asian stock markets continued to sell off Monday, partly because of fears–not for the first time–that there may be something fishy about the numbers. The benchmark Shanghai index fell 0.4%, and the Japanese Nikkei fell 1.2%.

????Specifically, exports to Hong Kong leaped 34% on the year in September, having been down 2.1% in August. That suggested to some that much of the improvement in the data might not be down to real exports as such, but rather to disguised bets on the foreign exchange market.

????China’s capital account is tightly controlled and only allows foreign exchange to be bought or sold when needed for real underlying trade. As a result, mainland businesses often fake invoices to subsidiaries in Hong Kong to generate phantom exports or imports when they want to take on, or reduce, exposure to swings in currency markets. Analysts at ANZ noted that the rise in exports to Hong Kong were “coincident with the renewed renminbi appreciation in the last few months.”

????But there were more encouraging signs from the other side of the trade data. Imports rose 7% on the year, having fallen 2.4% in the year to August, but perhaps not for the reasons either Beijing or western economists would want. Much of the increase was due to more purchases of iron ore (for steel) and crude oil–hardly clear evidence of the kind of rebalancing towards domestic consumption that the authorities are aiming for.

????China’s government is trying to sustain a growth rate of around 7.5% this year. The International Monetary Fund, whose gloomy predictions last week were one of the triggers for the market sell-offs, left its forecast for this year and 2015 unchanged at 7.4% and 7.1%, respectively, even while it downgraded it forecasts for most of the rest of the world. Many analysts are concerned that the collapse of a real estate bubble may lead to a sharper slowdown.