????對歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟陷入衰退的擔(dān)憂正在升溫，但顯然，德國的狀況要遠遠好于其他鄰國。如今的德國擁有低失業(yè)率、超低通脹、高貿(mào)易順差和平衡的預(yù)算。相比之下，歐元區(qū)大部分成員國處境艱難，一些國家正經(jīng)歷災(zāi)難性的經(jīng)濟衰退和高失業(yè)率。德國政府表示，其自身的成功與鄰邦的失敗沒有任何關(guān)聯(lián)，鄰邦艱難的處境應(yīng)歸咎于決策欠佳。但是，即便政策失靈確實存在，德國的這一分析仍是錯的。

????德國多年來奉行限薪政策，很多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家將此描述為競爭性貶值或“以鄰為壑”政策。德國獲得的競爭力可以立即轉(zhuǎn)化為貿(mào)易順差，因為商品、服務(wù)、人員和資本的自由政策允許德國產(chǎn)品在整個歐盟地區(qū)自由迅速地流通。這些是歐盟法的基本自由條款，受歐洲法院（European Court of Justice）有力保護。若沒有這些，德國政策一直以來不會如此成功。

????德國還受益于固定匯率：歐元的使用令德國與其他歐洲主要市場之間的貨幣保持固定匯率。這意味著出口繁榮不會被其自身貨幣升值所消減。如果德國一直在歐元區(qū)之外，貨幣升值會損害到德國的收益。但在歐元區(qū)內(nèi)就不會有這個問題。

????德國從歐元區(qū)受益良多，而那些不那么成功的鄰邦只能忙于招架。歐元區(qū)缺乏適用于其他貨幣聯(lián)盟的財政自動穩(wěn)定因素，即不同地區(qū)間的財政轉(zhuǎn)移支付，比如失業(yè)和住房福利、共擔(dān)型醫(yī)療保健成本等，以及銀行風(fēng)險和存款保險資金池。歐元區(qū)也缺乏美國享有的大規(guī)模州際勞動力遷移，這主要是由于語言和監(jiān)管障礙的限制。歐元區(qū)的這些制度特點創(chuàng)造出了一個高度不公平的經(jīng)濟聯(lián)盟，會令失敗的后果被畸形放大。

????德國或許會這樣回應(yīng)：“活該，其他成員國應(yīng)該預(yù)見到這樣的狀況?！睔W元區(qū)所有成員都面臨同樣的競爭環(huán)境。所有成員都批準了相關(guān)的協(xié)議，表明它們認可這樣的政策設(shè)計。所有成員都曾有機會進行調(diào)整的。然而，這種論調(diào)也是錯的。

????As worries rise that the eurozone is slipping into recession, it’s clear Germany is doing way better than its neighbors. Today, the country has low unemployment, very low inflation, a large trade surplus and a balanced budget. By contrast, most members of the Eurozone are stagnating, while some are going through a catastrophic recession and suffering from debilitating unemployment. The German government says that its own success and its neighbors’ failures are unrelated; that poor performance is due to poor decisions. Yet, even though the policy failures are real enough, this analysis is false.

????Germany has for many years pursued a policy of wage suppression, which many economists have described as a competitive devaluation or ‘beggar thy neighbor’ policy. Germany’s gains in competitiveness were immediately translated to gains in trade, since the freedom of goods, services, persons and capital allowed German products to circulate freely and quickly throughout the European Union. These are the fundamental freedoms of EU law and are vigorously protected by the European Court of Justice. German policy would not have been successful without them

????Germany has also benefited from the fixed exchange rate that the Euro effectively secures between itself and its major European markets. This means that its export boom was not offset by a rise in its own currency. If Germany had been outside the Euro, currency appreciation would have hurt Germany’s gains. Not so in the Eurozone.

????While Germany has benefited so much from the Eurozone, its less successful partners are left to fend for themselves. The Eurozone lacks the automatic stabilizers that other currency unions apply among the various regions — namely, fiscal transfers such as unemployment and housing benefits, shared health care costs, or the pooling of bank risks and deposit insurance. The Eurozone also lacks the large movement of workers across state borders enjoyed by the United States, mostly due to language and regulatory barriers. These institutional features of the Eurozone have created a highly unfair economic union, which magnifies disproportionately the consequences of failure.

????Germany might respond, ‘Tough, the others ought to have seen it coming.” All members of the Eurozone are subject to the same competitive environment. All consented to its design by ratifying the relevant treaties. All had a chance to adjust. Yet this argument is false too.