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美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)結(jié)束巨額購(gòu)債計(jì)劃,量化寬松時(shí)代畫(huà)上句號(hào)

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)結(jié)束巨額購(gòu)債計(jì)劃,量化寬松時(shí)代畫(huà)上句號(hào)

Laura Lorenzetti 2014-10-31
自2008年12月啟動(dòng)量化寬松政策以來(lái),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表已膨脹至4.48萬(wàn)億美元。

????周三,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)發(fā)布聲明,宣布將結(jié)束其持續(xù)多年的債券購(gòu)買計(jì)劃。這項(xiàng)旨在刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的舉措給經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)了一系列影響,引發(fā)無(wú)數(shù)爭(zhēng)論,現(xiàn)在終于即將畫(huà)上句號(hào)。

????隨著市場(chǎng)狀況不斷改善,對(duì)持續(xù)低通脹的擔(dān)憂減弱,失業(yè)率也在以穩(wěn)定地速度下降,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)最終決定結(jié)束第三輪購(gòu)買抵押貸款和財(cái)政部擔(dān)保債券。自2008年啟動(dòng)量化寬松策略以來(lái),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表至今已膨脹至4.48萬(wàn)億美元。

????與此同時(shí),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)計(jì)劃繼續(xù)持有其證券,并將所持到期證券的本金重新投資于自己的機(jī)構(gòu)擔(dān)保證券,同時(shí)會(huì)在拍賣時(shí)對(duì)到期的國(guó)庫(kù)債券進(jìn)行展期。顯然,通過(guò)持有債券余額,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)希望能夠“在經(jīng)濟(jì)中保持具有適應(yīng)性的金融市場(chǎng)狀況”,而無(wú)需進(jìn)行新的購(gòu)債安排。

????這份聲明是由美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的政策制定機(jī)構(gòu)——公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)(Open Market Committee)在結(jié)束為期兩天的會(huì)議后所發(fā)布。很多分析師都希望能從中挖掘線索,推斷美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將在何時(shí)開(kāi)始加息。委員會(huì)繼續(xù)將聯(lián)邦基金利率的目標(biāo)范圍設(shè)立在0%至0.25%之間,這意味著目前整體經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)的利率仍將保持在一貫的低水平位置。

????在聲明中,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景十分樂(lè)觀,表示自9月份的聯(lián)邦公開(kāi)市場(chǎng)委員會(huì)會(huì)議以來(lái),“就業(yè)市場(chǎng)狀況已得到進(jìn)一步改善,崗位增長(zhǎng)穩(wěn)定,失業(yè)率下降。”

????聲明指出,“總體來(lái)說(shuō),一系列的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)指標(biāo)顯示,勞動(dòng)力資源利用不充分的情況正在逐漸消失?!?/p>

????對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是否歸功于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的量化寬松計(jì)劃,目前仍存在爭(zhēng)議。自量寬啟動(dòng)以來(lái),失業(yè)率已經(jīng)從2009年10月份(購(gòu)債計(jì)劃開(kāi)始的一年后)10%的高位下降至上個(gè)月的5.9%。與此同時(shí),根據(jù)國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)的數(shù)據(jù),今年美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)2.8%,遠(yuǎn)超2008年0.3%的負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。

????“從投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)的角度來(lái)看,沒(méi)有量寬比繼續(xù)量寬更好,雖然短期來(lái)說(shuō)會(huì)造成一定的波動(dòng)性?!奔涡爬碡?cái)(Charles Schwab)的首席投資策略利茲?安?松德斯表示,“至少,我們可以考察經(jīng)濟(jì)能否在自身引擎的驅(qū)動(dòng)下運(yùn)作,股市的表現(xiàn)也將與營(yíng)收的表現(xiàn)更為貼近,而不是被量寬牽著鼻子走?!?/p>

????松德斯認(rèn)為,和第一輪及第二輪量化寬松所不同,第三輪量寬令市場(chǎng)信心面臨考驗(yàn)。

????由于規(guī)??涨暗馁Y產(chǎn)購(gòu)買計(jì)劃,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表不斷膨脹?!百Y產(chǎn)負(fù)債表規(guī)模越大,退出就越發(fā)困難。”她解釋道。

????美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)目前還無(wú)需面臨退出投資的后果,并且表示至少在委員會(huì)開(kāi)始再次加息之前,不會(huì)調(diào)整其資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。即便如此,在第三輪量寬之后,市場(chǎng)難免波動(dòng),情況會(huì)和前兩次計(jì)劃結(jié)束時(shí)一樣。

????The Federal Reserve will bring to an end its long-running bond purchase program, according to a statement released Wednesday, concluding a stimulus exercise that has attracted intense debate as to its impact on the economy and the financial markets.

????Improving market conditions, including diminished fears of persistently low inflation and a steadily descending jobless rate, led the Fed to make the call to put an end to its third round of purchases of mortgage- and treasury-backed bonds. To date, the Fed has amassed a balance sheet of $4.48 trillion since it started its quantitative easing strategy in November 2008.

????The Fed plans to hold onto its securities and will reinvest principal payments from its holdings into its own agency-backed securities and will roll over maturing Treasury securities at auction. It is hoping that by holding its bond balance, it will “help maintain accommodative financial conditions” in the economy without needing to continue with new purchases.

????The Fed’s policy-setting Open Market Committee made the statement at the end of its two-day meeting Wednesday. Many analysts were hoping for further insight into when the Fed may start boosting interest rates. The committee stands by its 0% to 0.25% target range for the federal-funds rate, which means that interest rates across the broader economy will remain at their consistently low levels for now.

????In its statement, the Fed was remarkably upbeat about the economy’s prospects, saying that since the Federal Open Market Committee last met in September, “l(fā)abor market conditions have “improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate.”

????“On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing,” the statement said.

????Whether or not the economy’s gains can be attributed to the Fed’s quantitative easing program is a matter of debate. Since its inception, the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.9% last month from a high of 10% in October 2009, a year after the bond-buying began. Meanwhile, U.S. gross domestic product is expected to pick up to 2.8% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, compared to 0.3% decline in 2008.

????“We’re better off from an investment and economic perspective without QE than if it had continued, even if there is short-term volatility,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “We can at least see if the economy can operate under its own engine power, and we will probably see the stock market behave more in-line with earnings rather than gyrating around QE.”

????Sonders said that unlike the first and second rounds of quantitative easing, the third round put downward pressure on confidence.

????“The bigger the balance sheet, the harder to exit,” she said, referring to the growth in the Fed’s balance sheet due to its unprecedented asset-purchase program.

????The Fed still doesn’t have to face the prospect of exiting its investments just yet, and has said it won’t change its balance sheet until at least the committee begins raising interest rates again. Even so, there may be some volatility in the markets following the end of QE3, much like after the end of the first two programs.

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