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假期購物季前美國經(jīng)濟(jì)適時好轉(zhuǎn)

假期購物季前美國經(jīng)濟(jì)適時好轉(zhuǎn)

Chris Matthews 2014-11-28
本周公布的新數(shù)據(jù)表明,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)即將加速增長。

????到今年圣誕節(jié)前,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能終將迎來眾人期待已久的那種復(fù)蘇。

????經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)期,在衰退過后,一個經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增長速度將高于它的長期增長潛力,從而最終趕上衰退前的大趨勢。但美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的最新復(fù)蘇卻并不符合這種預(yù)期。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)非未恢復(fù)元?dú)猓且廊蛔邉葸t緩。

????不過,周二公布的修訂后GDP增速表明,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)或終將迎來我們期盼已久的高于趨勢線的快速增長。高頻經(jīng)濟(jì)公司(High Frequency Economics)美國首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家吉姆?奧沙利文指出,除今年第一季度外,去年年中以來美國的GDP年化增長率一直為3.5%。他寫道:“我們相信實(shí)際增速至少為3%,甚至是3.5%。無論如何,這都要高于潛在增長率,后者目前的估值不超過2%?!?/p>

????上述分析包含了一些令人失望的信息。美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)研究人員本周稱,幾乎可以確定,金融危機(jī)及其后的衰退影響了美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛在增長率。很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都預(yù)計(jì),考慮到勞動人口老齡化以及人口增長放緩,今后幾年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將低于二戰(zhàn)后的平均水平。

????但是,如果美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速實(shí)際上高于趨勢值,那就意味著它更接近充分就業(yè)狀態(tài),而充分就業(yè)是提高工資的必要條件。

????有跡象表明薪酬增長或許就要到來。雖然月度就業(yè)報(bào)告中的工資數(shù)據(jù)表明,美國人均收入增長率僅與通脹持平;但周二公布的GDP數(shù)據(jù)顯示,個人收入增速幾乎是前者的兩倍。出現(xiàn)這種情況的原因可能是美國勞工部(Labor Department)的數(shù)據(jù)并未考慮年終獎等收入。同時,隨著失業(yè)率持續(xù)下降,預(yù)計(jì)雇主們將不得不通過加薪來應(yīng)對日趨緊張的勞動力供應(yīng)。

????除了工資上升,另一個因素也讓我們感到樂觀。雖然11月份消費(fèi)者信心下降,但在10月份,世界大型企業(yè)聯(lián)合會(The Conference Board)消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)飆升至七年新高。正如宏觀研究機(jī)構(gòu)Renaissance Macro Research經(jīng)濟(jì)研究主管尼爾?杜塔所說,今年打算購房的消費(fèi)者數(shù)量一直在上升,而打算購買大型家電的消費(fèi)者數(shù)量已達(dá)到2010年以來的最高點(diǎn)。這或許與汽油價(jià)格持續(xù)下跌有關(guān)。鑒于目前汽油零售價(jià)比近期高點(diǎn)低88美分,杜塔認(rèn)為 ,如果汽油價(jià)格保持在這樣的低點(diǎn),隨后一年里美國消費(fèi)者有望節(jié)省1190億美元的開支。

????此次汽油降價(jià)正值假期購物旺季逐漸升溫之際,消費(fèi)者可能更愿意消費(fèi)而非儲蓄,從而進(jìn)一步促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。

????此外,住房市場也呈現(xiàn)出復(fù)蘇跡象。周二出爐的Case-Shiller美國樓市報(bào)告表明,雖然住宅價(jià)格增速繼續(xù)放緩,但整體趨勢很健康。市場預(yù)測機(jī)構(gòu)IHS環(huán)球透視(HIS Global Insights)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家帕特里克?紐波特稱,這是一份“很好的報(bào)告”,樓市放緩的原因在于供給增多和止贖率下降,而非經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡。

????同時,美國人口普查局(Census Department)周三公布,新建住宅銷量與2013年10月份相比上升了1.8%,年化銷量為45.8萬套。和歷史水平相比,這個數(shù)字相當(dāng)?shù)?,但相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)表明建筑業(yè)正在持續(xù)復(fù)蘇,只是速度緩慢。

????但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們認(rèn)為,阻礙銷量及建筑業(yè)增長的主要原因很簡單,即缺乏住戶——美國住戶數(shù)量一直沒有明顯反彈。不過,如果今年第四季度以及明年工資開始上升,就可能促使年輕人開始購買住房,進(jìn)而使這些數(shù)據(jù)恢復(fù)到衰退前的正常水平。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Joe

????For Christmas this year, the U.S. might finally be given the sort of recovery we’ve all been waiting for.

????Economists expect that following recessions, an economy should grow more quickly than than its long-term potential, so that growth eventually catches up to the pre-recession trend. Our most recent recovery, however, never lived up to this expectation, and the economy simply sputtered along rather than making up for lost time.

????But Tuesday’s revision of GDP growth suggests the U.S. economy might finally be seeing the above-trend growth we’ve been waiting for. As Jim O’Sullivan of High Frequency Economics points out, other than in the first quarter of 2014, the economy has been growing at a 3.5% annual rate since the middle of last year. “We believe the trend in real growth is now at least 3 percent, and possibly even 3.5 percent. In any event, it’s above the potential growth rate, which is probably no more than 2 percent currently,” he writes.

????There is some disappointing news packed into this analysis. As researchers at the Federal Reserve noted this week, the potential growth rate of the economy has most certainly been damaged by the financial crisis and subsequent recession, while many economists predict that the U.S. will grow slower in the coming years than the post World War II average simply because of the aging of the workforce and slowing population growth.

????But if we are, in fact, growing above trend, that means the economy will be closer to reaching full employment—a necessary condition for rising wages.

????And there are signs that this wage growth might be around the corner. While wage data in the monthly jobs report suggests that the average American’s pay is rising only fast enough to keep pace with inflation, Tuesday’s GDP numbers show private income rising at nearly twice that rate, likely because the Labor Department data leaves out income workers earn from sources like annual bonuses. Meanwhile, as the unemployment rate continues to fall, it’s expected that employers will have to respond to a tightening market by raising salaries.

????And there’s reason for optimism beyond rising wages. Consumer confidence ticked down in November, but that was after a huge jump in October that placed the Conference Board’s index at a seven-year high. As Renaissance Macro’s Neil Dutta argues, the number of consumers expecting to buy a home has risen throughout the year, while the number expecting to buy major appliances is at its highest since 2010. This may have something to do with consistently declining gas prices. Since retail gas prices are 88 cents below their recent highs, Dutta argues that American consumers could end up saving a total of $119 billion over the next year, if prices stay this low.

????With this price break coming just as the holiday shopping season ramps up, consumers might be willing to spend rather than save that money, giving an extra boost to the economy.

????And finally, the housing market is showing signs of life. Tuesday’s Case-Shiller report demonstrated that while home price appreciation is continuing to slow, the trend is healthy. IHS Global Insights’ Patrick Newport called it a “good report,” arguing that the slowdown is due to added supply and fewer foreclosures rather than a weakening economy.

????Meanwhile, the Census Department announced on Wednesday that new home sales increased 1.8% from last October, to an annual rate of 458,000 units. While this number is quite low by historical standards, the data show that the construction industry is continuing to recover, albeit slowly.

????But economists believe that the main force holding back new sales and construction is simply the lack of household formation, which has yet to rebound in a significant way. But if wages begin to pick up in the final quarter of 2014 and next year, that could be a catalyst for young people to begin to move into their own homes, and for these data to recover to their pre-recession norms.

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