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理查德?布蘭森:我如何決定要不要投資一個(gè)新項(xiàng)目

理查德?布蘭森:我如何決定要不要投資一個(gè)新項(xiàng)目

Richard Branson, Entrepreneur.com 2014-12-26
在進(jìn)行這種決策時(shí),尚無(wú)確切的科學(xué)理論可供參考,但理查德?布蘭森在此提供了一些基本原則。

????本文為與《創(chuàng)業(yè)者》雜志的合作內(nèi)容,原文最初刊登在Entrepreneur.com網(wǎng)站。

????做,還是不做,這是個(gè)問(wèn)題。企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人之所以能拿高薪,關(guān)鍵就在他們得做出一個(gè)個(gè)考慮周全的明智抉擇,比如是否要冒險(xiǎn)從事某項(xiàng)潛在業(yè)務(wù)。然而,創(chuàng)業(yè)新手在進(jìn)行類似抉擇時(shí)卻沒(méi)有什么科學(xué)理論或建議可供參考。

????這類決策永遠(yuǎn)也無(wú)法編成程序輸入計(jì)算機(jī)。它更像是參加陪審團(tuán),后者要求陪審人員在做出裁定之前必須消除所有合理的懷疑。(令人欣慰的是,企業(yè)決策很少涉及企業(yè)存亡問(wèn)題?。┎贿^(guò),我發(fā)現(xiàn)了幾條基本原則,能夠經(jīng)常幫助我較為及時(shí)地決定是否批準(zhǔn)某個(gè)項(xiàng)目。

????對(duì)我而言,第一印象一直都是非常重要的,但我不會(huì)讓它影響我的商業(yè)決策。我發(fā)現(xiàn),就算某個(gè)想法能立即讓你的眼前為之一亮,你也必須把自己的第一反應(yīng)放在一旁,然后仔細(xì)、客觀地衡量這項(xiàng)潛在業(yè)務(wù)的利弊。即使在初步評(píng)估過(guò)程中沒(méi)有發(fā)現(xiàn)任何重大弊端,但這也不能說(shuō)明這些弊端并不存在。幾乎每一位初創(chuàng)企業(yè)的負(fù)責(zé)人都有自己難以預(yù)見(jiàn)的問(wèn)題,因此,請(qǐng)務(wù)必多花點(diǎn)時(shí)間來(lái)找出這些問(wèn)題,并在采取行動(dòng)前對(duì)解決方案進(jìn)行評(píng)估。如果你在起步之后才發(fā)現(xiàn)重大問(wèn)題,那么在處理時(shí)就會(huì)處于非常被動(dòng)的地位。

????如果團(tuán)隊(duì)成員都贊成實(shí)施某個(gè)項(xiàng)目,這種謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度的重要性就會(huì)受到質(zhì)疑。沒(méi)有什么點(diǎn)子是完美無(wú)缺的,因此,請(qǐng)務(wù)必提高警惕,并努力探索那些含有隱藏問(wèn)題的領(lǐng)域,然后找到問(wèn)題,并予以解決。只有這樣,企業(yè)家才能構(gòu)建更好的企業(yè)。對(duì)于是否啟動(dòng)某個(gè)項(xiàng)目,不要孤立地做決定,你必須考慮它對(duì)自己公司的整體運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)有何影響。作為負(fù)責(zé)人,你的每個(gè)決定都會(huì)或多或少地影響你隨后把握機(jī)會(huì)的能力——這就是專家們所說(shuō)的“決策流”。

????你可能會(huì)覺(jué)得自己一直在考慮的項(xiàng)目非常好,所以不容錯(cuò)過(guò)。但你必須思考該項(xiàng)目今后會(huì)對(duì)你的其他項(xiàng)目會(huì)產(chǎn)生什么樣的影響。如果當(dāng)前似乎并非是采取行動(dòng)的最佳時(shí)機(jī),那么就你就得考慮一下,在大家都能接受的時(shí)間范圍內(nèi)擱置項(xiàng)目是否有風(fēng)險(xiǎn),如果有的話,會(huì)是什么樣的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如果出現(xiàn)在兩個(gè)項(xiàng)目之間舉棋不定的情況,那就想一想,為什么要批準(zhǔn)這個(gè)項(xiàng)目而否定那個(gè)項(xiàng)目,以及這樣做是否能體現(xiàn)你的優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)安排。

????最后,盡一切可能來(lái)降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)——以免出現(xiàn)不利情況。在股票投資組合當(dāng)中,明智的投資者都會(huì)竭盡全力地去減少潛在的損失,而你在建立一家新公司的時(shí)候也應(yīng)該采取類似的策略。

????以我組建維珍大西洋航空公司時(shí)的情況為例,如果要讓我在維珍唱片的那些生意伙伴勉強(qiáng)接受開(kāi)設(shè)新航空公司的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),唯一的辦法就是和波音達(dá)成協(xié)議:如果新公司一年后的業(yè)績(jī)未達(dá)到我們的預(yù)期,那么波音將回購(gòu)賣給我們的波音747飛機(jī)。從那時(shí)起,只要我們打算建立規(guī)模巨大的資本密集型公司,比如維珍銀河或者即將上馬的維珍游輪,我們的團(tuán)隊(duì)總會(huì)花大量時(shí)間來(lái)尋找獨(dú)出心裁的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)避途徑。

????以上只是一些小竅門,我一直用它們來(lái)幫助自己做出明智的商業(yè)決策,希望對(duì)大家也能有所幫助。最后一點(diǎn)建議:如果你有時(shí)間來(lái)慢慢梳理整個(gè)項(xiàng)目,請(qǐng)一定要這樣做。只要?jiǎng)e錯(cuò)過(guò)機(jī)會(huì),針對(duì)某個(gè)項(xiàng)目多做些準(zhǔn)備幾乎不會(huì)帶來(lái)什么不利影響。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Charlie

????審稿:李翔

????This post is in partnership with Entrepreneur. The article below was originally published at Entrepreneur.com.

????To do, or not to do — that is the question. Business leaders get paid big bucks to make smart, informed decisions about whether or not to take the plunge on a potential venture, yet there is no science or advice anyone can offer that will help new entrepreneurs to make similar choices.

????Such decisions could never be programmed into a computer. It’s more like sitting on a jury: All reasonable doubt must be removed before you can pass a verdict one way or the other. (Thankfully, though, corporate decisions seldom involve matters of life and death!) That said, I have found that a few general rules often help me to arrive at a decision within the appropriate timeframe about whether to approve a project.

????For me, first impressions always matter a great deal, but I don’t let that thought process influence my decision-making when it comes to business matters. I’ve learned that even when an idea immediately strikes you as a really good one, you must push aside that first reaction and carefully and objectively weigh the potential new business’s pros and cons. If no significant cons come to mind when you first evaluate an idea, that doesn’t mean that they don’t exist. Almost every startupencounters unforeseen problems, so be sure to devote a lot of time to figuring out what they are and assessing solutions before you move forward — if you learn of a major problem after the launch, you’ll be in a much worse position to deal with it.

????This kind of caution becomes doubly important if everyone on your team is unanimously in favor of going ahead with a project. No idea is perfect, so be on your guard and work hard at exposing the hidden problem areas. Find and address them, and you’ll only build a better business. Avoid making a decision in isolation about whether to launch a venture: You must also consider how the project will affect the overall functioning of your company. Every choice you make as an entrepreneur will impact, to some degree, your ability to explore future opportunities — this is what the experts call the “decision stream.”

????You might feel that the venture you’re considering might be too good to pass up, but you have to keep in mind how it will affect your other projects down the road. If it appears that now is not be the best time to move forward, consider what risks, if any, there would be in putting the venture on hold for an agreed-upon length of time. In those situations where you cannot take on a project because another is waiting in the wings, think about why one should get the nod and the other not, and what that says about your priorities.

????Finally, do everything you can to limit your exposure to risk — protect the downside. Wise investors go to great lengths to limit their potential losses when it comes to stock portfolios, and you should employ a similar strategy when setting up a new business.

????For example, when I was starting up Virgin Atlantic, the only way I got my business partners at Virgin Records to begrudgingly accept the risks involved in running a new airline was by getting Boeing to agree to buy back our 747 airliner after a year if things didn’t work out as we’d hoped. Ever since then, whenever we are looking into starting up a giant, capital-intensive venture like Virgin Galactic or our upcoming Virgin Cruises, our team always spends a lot of time finding inventive ways to protect the downside.

????These are just a few tips that I have used to help me make smart business decisions, and I hope that they will help you too. A final hint: If you have the time to take an approach that involves orchestrated procrastination, then do so. Doing more homework on a project is seldom a bad thing — as long as you don’t let the opportunity pass you by!

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