????過去幾個月，中國官方媒體一直大肆報道中國的“新常態(tài)”，并透露政府可能將2015年的GDP增長目標(biāo)定為7％。新華社20日撰文稱：“中國的超高速增長期已經(jīng)過去，我們得接受這一點(diǎn)?！?/p>

????早在2014年伊始，中國就在淡化自身增長潛力。2014年早些時候，李克強(qiáng)總理宣布，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長目標(biāo)為7.5％，僅一天后，財政部長樓繼偉就表示，增長7.2％就很好了。

????以花長春為首的野村證券香港分析師團(tuán)隊，詳細(xì)說明了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長繼續(xù)放緩可能會帶來的局面?？梢哉f是“塞翁失馬，焉知非福”。

????花長春寫道：“鑒于地方政府債務(wù)控制收緊、房地產(chǎn)市場調(diào)整以及去杠桿化等深層次的國內(nèi)挑戰(zhàn)……，經(jīng)濟(jì)將持續(xù)下滑。對于2015年，我們維持GDP增長6.8％的預(yù)測?！?/p>

????中國宣布的國有企業(yè)、影子銀行以及地方政府債務(wù)等多項改革，會導(dǎo)致增長放緩，但它們有助于經(jīng)濟(jì)健康發(fā)展。目前，中國公共債務(wù)占GDP的比重高達(dá)250％，已令國民經(jīng)濟(jì)幾乎難以支撐。

????澳新銀行的劉利剛表示，中國服務(wù)業(yè)在2014年的表現(xiàn)，是此次公布的GDP數(shù)據(jù)中的一大亮點(diǎn)。服務(wù)業(yè)對GDP增長的貢獻(xiàn)率為3.8個百分點(diǎn)，而制造業(yè)的貢獻(xiàn)率為3個百分點(diǎn)。劉利剛稱：“過去四年，盡管中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩，但新增就業(yè)崗位數(shù)量卻在逐年增長，原因便在于服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展?！毕啾茸詣踊墓S，服務(wù)業(yè)雇傭的人更多。

????同時，盡管中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度在全球各大經(jīng)濟(jì)體中仍然遙遙領(lǐng)先，但其對石油、鐵礦石和銅等大宗商品的消耗量卻未同比例增長，出現(xiàn)這一現(xiàn)象的原因亦是因為服務(wù)業(yè)。隨著市場意識到中國對大宗商品的需求增長被嚴(yán)重高估，過去半年，上述商品的價格直線下跌。

????如今的GDP增長放緩，同去年三季度時一樣明顯。當(dāng)時，中國季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長創(chuàng)下5年來的新低，消息一出，中國股市應(yīng)聲下跌。然而，同樣是面對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩的消息，本月20日中國股市反而上漲了2％，這暗示投資者或許已經(jīng)習(xí)慣中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Hunter

????審稿：李翔

????For the past couple of months, China’s state-run press has been relentlessly running stories about China’s “new normal” and telegraphing the government’s likely reduction in the 2015 GDP target to 7% growth. “The country’s period of miraculous break-neck growth is over, but let’ s get over it,” state-run Xinhua wrote today.

????Even in the beginning of 2014, China was downplaying its growth potential. Only a day after Premier Li Keqiang announced China’s growth target of 7.5% earlier last year, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei undercut him and said 7.2% growth would be just fine.

????Nomura analysts led by Chang Chun Hua in Hong Kong spell out the likely scenario by which China’s growth continues slowing. It shouldn’t be completely unwelcome.

????“The economy will resume its downtrend … given deep-rooted domestic challenges such as tighter controls over local government debt, the property market correction and deleveraging,” Hua writes. “For 2015, we maintain our GDP growth forecast of 6.8%.”

????China’s announced reforms for state-run enterprises, shadow banking, and local government debt should reduce growth but contribute to a healthier economy which is struggling under a public-debt-to-GDP ratio of 250%.

????ANZ’s Liu says China’s service sector’s performance in 2014 is an important takeaway from the GDP announcements. The contribution from services to GDP growth was 3.8 percentage points vs. manufacturing’s 3 percentage points. He says, “This also explains, despite China’s slowing growth over the past four years, the new jobs created are growing year by year.” Services employ more people than do automated factories.

????It also explains why a growth rate that is still by far the fastest of any large economy in the world isn’t translating one-for-one into consumption of commodities such as oil, iron ore and copper, prices for which have tumbled in the last six months as markets wake up to how much they have overestimated the profile of Chinese demand growth.

????Today’s GDP growth slowdown was just as apparent in the third quarter, when China’s quarterly growth hit a five-year low. Back then Chinese stocks fell on the news. In a hint that investors may be getting used to a slowing China, stocks in Shanghai rose by 2% today.