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印度:下一個超級大國?

印度:下一個超級大國?

Sanjay Sanghoee 2015-01-29
貧困和腐敗在印度依然隨處可見,但這個國家已經(jīng)為晉身超級大國做好了準(zhǔn)備。新總理莫迪的改革旨在改變限制性工商業(yè)法規(guī)并建立一個真正自由的市場,這些措施似乎已經(jīng)開始發(fā)揮作用。2014年第三季度印度的GDP增長率為5.3%,盡管稍低于第二季度,但遠(yuǎn)高于之前幾年的水平。

????但印度基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施最重要的一面在于其人力資本。印度人口之所以價值連城,原因在于該國擁有大量年輕勞動力——35歲及以下人口在印度占65%,這將讓印度在今后幾十年里擁有強(qiáng)大的競爭優(yōu)勢。

????為實(shí)現(xiàn)人力資本的潛力,印度政府已經(jīng)采取多項(xiàng)措施,旨在改善教育條件,留住行業(yè)內(nèi)從事技術(shù)性工作的農(nóng)民工,為所有印度人提供銀行賬戶并進(jìn)行個人理財(cái)規(guī)劃教育,提供免費(fèi)人壽保險,鼓勵更廣泛地使用計(jì)算機(jī)和互聯(lián)網(wǎng),以及實(shí)現(xiàn)勞動力的全面現(xiàn)代化,以迎接醫(yī)療保健、信息技術(shù)、通信和零售行業(yè)的快速增長所帶來的就業(yè)機(jī)遇的激增。

????印度有可能成為超級大國的最后一個因素是地緣政治優(yōu)勢。自上任以來,莫迪一直在下大力氣鞏固印度與俄羅斯、日本和美國之間的關(guān)系。對于后三者來說,印度是個有價值的貿(mào)易伙伴,擁有巨大的消費(fèi)者群體和有待開發(fā)的勞動力資源。更為重要的是,印度和這些國家建立聯(lián)盟有著重要的戰(zhàn)略意義。

????受西方經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁和低油價影響,俄羅斯比以往任何時候都需要印度這個伙伴,以便鞏固自己在亞洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)支點(diǎn)并在影響力上和美國抗衡。與之類似,在2013年美印雙邊貿(mào)易額達(dá)到950億美元的基礎(chǔ)上,美國愿意擴(kuò)大和印度的貿(mào)易規(guī)模,并利用印度來制衡中國。莫迪通過向這三個國家伸出橄欖枝展現(xiàn)了其外交手腕;同時,對于那些能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)印度經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治利益最大化的合作伙伴關(guān)系,莫迪也持贊成態(tài)度。。

????印度也許無法一帆風(fēng)順地實(shí)現(xiàn)自己的目標(biāo),或者說無法按莫迪設(shè)定的時間表做到這一點(diǎn)。然而,印度非常有可能十分迅速地成長為經(jīng)濟(jì)和地緣政治領(lǐng)域一股重要力量。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????本文作者現(xiàn)為商業(yè)評論員,曾在投行拉扎德和德利佳華任職,還曾為RamiusCapital對沖基金效力,握有哥倫比亞商學(xué)院MBA學(xué)位。

????譯者:Charlie

????審稿:李翔

????But the most important aspect of India’s infrastructure is its human capital. What makes India’s population so valuable is its large pool of young workers — 65% of India’s population is 35 or under, giving the country a strong competitive edge in the coming decades.

????To realize the potential of this human capital, the government has launched several initiatives aimed at improving education, retraining rural workers for skilled jobs in other sectors, providing bank accounts to all Indians to teach personal financial planning, offering free life insurance, encouraging the wider use of computers and the Internet, and generally modernizing the workforce for the big jobs boomcoming up in the fast-growing healthcare, information technology, telecom, and retail sectors.

????The final factor that could position India as a superpower is its geopolitical advantage. Since his election, Modi has made a concerted effort to strengthen ties with Russia, Japan, and the U.S. For each of them, India is a valuable trading partner with a vast consumer base and labor pool waiting to be tapped. But even more significant is the strategic importance of its alliance with all those nations.

????Reeling from Western economic sanctions and low oil prices, Russia needs India’s partnership more than ever to bolster its economic foothold in Asia and counter U.S. influence. Similarly, the U.S. would like to expand bilateral trade with India, which reached$95 billion in 2013, while also using the democratic nation to balance the power of China in the region. By extending the hand of friendship to all of them, Modi is being diplomatic; but he is also keeping his options open to forge partnerships that will maximize the benefit to India, both financially and politically.

????India may not reach its desired destination in a straight line or in the timeframe that Modi has set for it, but odds are pretty good that it will become a leading player in the economic and geopolitical spheres fairly soon.

????Sanjay Sanghoee is a business commentator. He has worked at investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, at hedge fund Ramius Capital, and has an MBA from Columbia Business School.

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