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數(shù)據(jù)表明中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)明顯放緩

數(shù)據(jù)表明中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)明顯放緩

Geoffrey Smith 2015-03-13
通縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)似乎正在上升,而不是下降。國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局周一公布,今年2月份,工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠價(jià)格同比下降4.8%,這是2009年以來(lái)的最大跌幅。

????周二公布的一系列數(shù)據(jù)顯示,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的幅度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)之前預(yù)期的水平。

????今年前兩個(gè)月,中國(guó)的工業(yè)產(chǎn)值、零售銷售額和固定資產(chǎn)投資增速都遠(yuǎn)低于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。這引發(fā)了對(duì)當(dāng)局將出臺(tái)更多刺激措施的猜測(cè),政府或?qū)⒉坏貌粍?dòng)用這些手段來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo),盡管該目標(biāo)已經(jīng)降至二十多年來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)。

????外界普遍認(rèn)為,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩是今年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的最大威脅之一。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)也將其視為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的特定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之一。

????據(jù)中國(guó)國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局公布,今年1-2月份國(guó)內(nèi)工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值同比僅增長(zhǎng)6.8%,這是2009年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)觸底以來(lái)的最低增速,而且明顯低于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè)的7.8%。同時(shí),固定資產(chǎn)投資增速也從2014年12月的15.7%降至13.9%。

????為了減輕春節(jié)假期對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)帶來(lái)的影響,中國(guó)政府會(huì)把每年前兩個(gè)月的多項(xiàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)合并后公布。

????政府官員對(duì)于工業(yè)增長(zhǎng)放緩的跡象普遍持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度,因?yàn)檫@和中國(guó)的長(zhǎng)期戰(zhàn)略一致——讓經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)更倚重于國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)和服務(wù)業(yè)的拉動(dòng)。

????但周二公布的數(shù)據(jù)表明,消費(fèi)增速也明顯下滑。盡管相對(duì)于發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體來(lái)說(shuō),這樣的增長(zhǎng)水平依然非常高。今年1-2月份,中國(guó)社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額同比增長(zhǎng)10.7%,低于去年12月的11.9%。

????China’s economy is slowing at a much sharper rate than previously thought, according to a raft of data out Tuesday.

????Figures for industrial production, retail sales and investment in fixed assets in the first two months of the year all fell well short of market expectations, prompting fresh speculation that Beijing will have to resort to more stimulus measures to meet what is already its most modest growth target in over 20 years.

????The slowdown in China is widely seen as one of the biggest threats to the world economy this year, with the Federal Reserve also singling it out as a particular risk to the U.S. recovery.

????According to the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial output in January and February was up only 6.8% from a year earlier, the slowest since the trough of the 2009 downturn, and clearly below the 7.8% rate forecast by economists. At the same time, the rate of growth in investment in fixed assets fell to 13.9% from 15.7% in December.

????China bundles many of its data for the first two months of the year in order to smooth out the effect of the Lunar New Year holiday, which can fall in either month.

????Government officials have been generally sanguine about signs of slowing industrial growth, as it’s in line with their longer-term strategy of re-orienting the economy more to domestic consumption and services.

????But the figures showed that consumption, too, is slowing appreciably–albeit to rates that developed economies would consider alarmingly high. Retail sales grew 10.7% on the year, down from a rate of 11.9% in December.

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