????2. 就業(yè)市場沒有看上去那么強勁

????2月份，美國失業(yè)率降至5.5%。受當(dāng)月就業(yè)報告影響，人們再次對利率走勢感到不安。但就業(yè)市場可能沒有看上去那么強勁。RHB Securities Singapore經(jīng)濟學(xué)家托馬斯?拉姆一直在觀察美國的就業(yè)和失業(yè)趨勢。他指出，進入2015年后，所謂的工作尋獲率一直在下降。這個指標(biāo)體現(xiàn)的是失業(yè)者在某個月份找到工作的可能性。2月份報告表明，長期失業(yè)者增多，未納入勞動力群體的人數(shù)也在大幅上升，也就是說他們甚至都沒去找工作。此外，工資并未上升。從該報告中可以看出，一年來美國就業(yè)者的平均小時工資僅提高了0.03美元。

????2. The job market is weaker than it looks

????Unemployment dropped to 5.5% in February. The jobs report for that month kicked off the latest round of anxiety about the trajectory of interest rates. But the job market may not be as strong as it looks. Thomas Lam, an economist at RHB Securities Singapore who watches the flow of workers in and out of employment, says that the so-called job finding rate—that is, the chances of an unemployed person landing a job in any given month—has been growing worse this year. Last month's report showed a rise in the number of long-term unemployed people as well as a jump in the number of people not included in the workforce, meaning they are not even looking for work.

????On top of that, wages are not rising. The February report showed that the average hourly pay of a U.S. worker has risen just $0.03 in the past year.

????3. 全球經(jīng)濟正在放緩

????美國經(jīng)濟也許終于開始強勢復(fù)蘇。但放眼海外，全球其他地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟都在放緩。歐洲地區(qū)有很大一部分都處于衰退之中，或者即將陷入衰退。最近中國也再次下調(diào)GDP目標(biāo)。作為自然資源主要消費國，就算中國經(jīng)濟增速只是小幅下降，世界其他地區(qū)也會受到巨大影響。油價下跌雖應(yīng)有利于美國經(jīng)濟，但它對中東、巴西和俄羅斯這樣的經(jīng)濟體來說是一場災(zāi)難，特別是俄羅斯。美國經(jīng)濟和全球經(jīng)濟的聯(lián)系比以往任何時候都要緊密，因此所有這些因素也會讓美國經(jīng)濟稍稍放慢增長腳步。

????4. 強勢美元將阻礙出口增長

????美元一直在升值，而加息只會讓它進一步走強。這可能提高美國公司向世界其他地區(qū)出口產(chǎn)品的難度，但不管怎么樣，后者對美國商品的需求都有可能下降。

????同時，隨著油價下滑，世界各地的價格水平都在下跌，這可能讓成本保持在較低水平。在通脹率非常低的情況下，美聯(lián)儲就不必急于提高利率。而且它一直也沒有著急。近七年來，美國的利率一直接近于零。別指望這種情況會那么快地發(fā)生改變。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????審校: 李翔

????3. The global economy is slowing

????The U.S. economy's recovery may finally be coming on strong. But take a look around. The rest of the world is slowing down. Much of Europe is in a recession or near it. And China recently cut its GDP estimate, again. As a large consumer of natural resources, even a small slowdown in China is bound to have repercussions for the rest of the world. And while lower oil prices should help the U.S. economy, it's a disaster for economies in the Middle East, Brazil, and particularly Russia. The U.S. economy is more connected to the global economy than ever before, so all of this is bound to slow America down a bit as well.

????4. A strong dollar will slow exports

????Raising interest rates is only going to make the dollar—which has already been rising against other currencies—climb higher. That's likely to make it harder for U.S. companies to export their goods around the world, where they are likely to see less demand anyway.

????What's more, falling prices around the world, along with the drop in oil prices, is likely to hold down costs here as well. With very little inflation, the Fed doesn't have to rush to raise interest rates. And it hasn't been in a rush. Interest rates have been close to zero for nearly seven years. Don't expect that to change so fast.