????近幾周，美國經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)相當(dāng)慘淡。

????之前美國商務(wù)部宣布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2015年一季度GDP初值環(huán)比僅增長0.2%。但隨后發(fā)布的新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，三月份美國貿(mào)易赤字要遠比經(jīng)濟學(xué)家預(yù)期的更高，因此一季度GDP實際上有可能是萎縮的。

????目前，大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟學(xué)家預(yù)計，美國經(jīng)濟將在第二季度和去年一樣出現(xiàn)反彈，GDP全年實際增長率將超過去年的2.4%。

????不過，這個觀點遭到了標普道瓊斯指數(shù)公司大宗商品部全球負責(zé)人朱迪?岡茲伯格的反駁，他在一份新的分析報告中表明，新一輪衰退即將到來。岡茲伯格指出，以標普高盛商品指數(shù)來衡量，大宗商品表現(xiàn)出色，該指數(shù)4月上漲了11.1%，漲幅在1970年該指數(shù)創(chuàng)立以來的所有月份中可排到第19位。其中，能源和工業(yè)金屬兩類大宗商品的表現(xiàn)尤其突出，四月份平均增長12.67%。這兩類商品在同一時期出現(xiàn)價格激增并不常見。據(jù)岡茲伯格說，自1983年以來，只有大約30%的時間里能源指數(shù)與工業(yè)金屬指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)是同步的，而漲幅高于今年四月的情況，過去幾十年里只有12個月出現(xiàn)過。（如下圖）

????It’s been a pretty miserable couple of weeks for the U.S. economy.

????Last week, the Commerce Department announced that GDP growth in the first quarter of 2015 fell dramatically to 0.2% on an annualized basis. But after new data released Tuesday showed that the trade deficit in March was far higher than economists had expected, it’s likely that GDP in the first quarter actually shrank.

????For now, most economists expect that the economy will bounce back in the second quarter of 2015, just like it did last year, and that overall real growth will beat last year’s performance of 2.4%.

????But a new analysis from Jodi Gunzberg, global head of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, argues against this consensus, and instead makes the case that we’re headed for another recession.Gunzberg points to the outstanding performance of commodities in April as measured by the S&P GSCI index, which gained 11.1% that month, the 19th best month since the index first starting tracking these commodities back in 1970. Two groups of commodities–energy and industrial metals–did particularly well, rising by a combined 12.67% in April. It’s not common for these two groups of commodities to surge in value at the same time. According to Gunzberg, the two indices have only moved in tandem about 30% of the time since 1983. And there have only been 12 months in which the energy and industrial metals sectors have risen more than they did in April:

????可以看出，兩類商品均表現(xiàn)較好的月份往往集中在經(jīng)濟衰退前。岡茲伯格認為，這是因為依賴這些原材料（如能源類的石油、天然氣和金屬類的銅、鋁）的企業(yè)，通常在感覺業(yè)績要下滑時開始大量購進原材料，他說：“如果多觀察幾輪經(jīng)濟周期就會發(fā)現(xiàn)，股市先于經(jīng)濟周期而動，而大宗商品則與經(jīng)濟周期基本同步。”

????換言之，市場接近頂部，企業(yè)現(xiàn)金和資本也很充足的情況下，如果對未來業(yè)績?nèi)狈π判?，企業(yè)就會囤積對全球經(jīng)濟發(fā)展較重要的基礎(chǔ)原材料——大宗商品。但隨著他們的業(yè)績惡化，市場對原材料的需求最終也會減弱。

????當(dāng)然，岡茲伯格的數(shù)據(jù)僅包括過去30年，涉及的經(jīng)濟衰退也只有三次。有可能出現(xiàn)這樣的數(shù)據(jù)只是偶然的巧合，并不能作為預(yù)測的依據(jù)。但眼下美國經(jīng)濟已連續(xù)第70個月增長，持續(xù)時間已達到1850年以來的有史第6長，這么看來第一季度的經(jīng)濟增長放緩很可能不僅是個偶發(fā)異常現(xiàn)象。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Donna

????審校：夏林

????As you can see, the months in which these sectors did well are clustered around times leading up to a recession. Gunzberg argues that this is because firms that rely on these materials—like oil and natural gas in the energy sector, and copper and aluminum in the metals sector—start buying up these materials in bulk when they sense their performance is about to start waning. “When you look at broad economic cycles,” says Gunzberg “equities lead the cycle, while commodities are on the cycle.”

????In other words, as the market nears a top, and companies are flush with cash and capital, but short on faith in their future performance, they start to hoard the basic commodities that power the global economy. But eventually their performance takes a turn for the worse, and so does demand for raw materials.

????Of course, Gunzberg’s data goes back by just 30 years, and it predicts only three recessions. It’s possible that these data only point to strange coincidences rather than something with real predictive power. But with the U.S. in its 70th month of economic expansion–the sixth longest the U.S. economy has had since 1850–the slowdown in the first quarter may very well be more than just a blip.