????本周，全球幾大產(chǎn)油國的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人將在維也納會(huì)面。幾乎同時(shí)，油價(jià)開始在每桶60美元左右企穩(wěn)。

????隨著夏季駕車出行高峰臨近，消費(fèi)者可能會(huì)擔(dān)心本次會(huì)談將重現(xiàn)30多年前的場景：旨在通過限制供給提高油價(jià)的各石油出口國將推動(dòng)原油產(chǎn)量下降。但今時(shí)不同往日，1979年石油輸出國組織（OPEC）曾權(quán)傾一時(shí)，占全球石油產(chǎn)量的一半，相比之下，目前其石油產(chǎn)量只占全球不到三分之一。

????今年2月份，《財(cái)富》雜志曾對(duì)油價(jià)暴跌進(jìn)行過報(bào)道，當(dāng)時(shí)，資深價(jià)值投資者杰里米?格蘭瑟姆等人告訴我們，長期來看油價(jià)會(huì)回到每桶100美元以上。其他分析人士，比如經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家魯比尼等認(rèn)為，低油價(jià)只會(huì)延續(xù)一年或一年半，沙特等產(chǎn)油國只是借此擠壓美國頁巖油生產(chǎn)商等高成本的競爭對(duì)手。

????Leaders from some of the world’s most productive oil-exporting nations will meet this week in Vienna, just as oil prices have begun to stabilize at around $60 per barrel.

????As we near peak summer driving season, American consumers would have worried a generation ago that such a meeting would be an impetus for a pullback in production, with oil exporters aiming to raise prices by limiting supply. But the world has changed a great deal since the height of OPEC’s power in 1979, when member nations accounted for 50% of global oil production, compared with less than one-third today.

????When Fortune published its report on the collapse of oil prices in February, investors like Jeremy Grantham told us that oil would be heading back to a price per barrel of more than $100 in the long run. Other analysts, like economist Nouriel Roubini, argued that cheap oil would last just a year or 18 months before producers like Saudi Arabia had successfully flushed out higher-cost competitors like shale producers here in the U.S.

????魯比尼的預(yù)言能否成真還要一段時(shí)間才能見分曉。不過，近幾個(gè)月的實(shí)際情況表明，從飽受戰(zhàn)爭創(chuàng)傷的伊拉克石油企業(yè)，到美國頁巖油生產(chǎn)商，全世界的石油公司都沒有被低油價(jià)嚇得止步不前。就算今年夏天美國汽油消費(fèi)量上升，我們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為低油價(jià)時(shí)代不會(huì)很快結(jié)束，原因有以下四點(diǎn)。

????1. 低利率意味著美國石油生產(chǎn)商的資金成本不高。《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》上周日指出，盡管油價(jià)不斷下跌，投資者仍然很愿意為美國的石油勘探和精煉提供資金。因?yàn)槔势?，投資者正在尋求各種穩(wěn)健的投資渠道，就連成本高價(jià)格低的石油公司都不存在融資問題：

????“去年原油價(jià)格開始暴跌時(shí)，許多能源專家都預(yù)計(jì)1986年的情景將重現(xiàn)。當(dāng)時(shí)美國石油企業(yè)資金斷流，行業(yè)低谷持續(xù)了好幾年。資金匱乏的石油公司只能放慢生產(chǎn)速度，甚至停產(chǎn)，而美國石油正是全球供給過剩的原因之一。許多公司都被迫出售給競爭對(duì)手，要么就得破產(chǎn)?！?/p>

????“然而本輪油價(jià)暴跌后，并未大規(guī)模出現(xiàn)當(dāng)年行業(yè)下滑時(shí)的慘狀。因?yàn)殂y行、私募股權(quán)公司和機(jī)構(gòu)投資者的資金源源不斷地涌向石油領(lǐng)域，哪怕石油生產(chǎn)商削減數(shù)十億美元預(yù)算又裁員逾十萬人，也擋不住投資的熱情?！?/p>

????2. 沙特除了繼續(xù)產(chǎn)油別無選擇。沙特曾在全球石油市場扮演“產(chǎn)量調(diào)節(jié)器”的角色，可以通過增減產(chǎn)來保持油價(jià)穩(wěn)定并賺取高額利潤，如今時(shí)移世易。《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》刊登的一篇文章深入探討了幾十年來沙特的變化。首先，由于政局不穩(wěn)，與政府繼續(xù)用石油賺取大筆收入相比，保持石油行業(yè)就業(yè)水平更加重要；其次，世界其他地區(qū)產(chǎn)油量激增，沙特生產(chǎn)的石油不再像過去那樣重要；最后，在過去30年中，隨著低硫原油產(chǎn)量下降，沙特越發(fā)依賴于出口質(zhì)量較低的石油。為此，沙特一直投資提高石油精煉產(chǎn)能。正是這項(xiàng)投資需求促使沙特即便在油價(jià)不斷下跌的情況下，也得繼續(xù)產(chǎn)油。

????3. 伊朗的石油可能很快進(jìn)入國際市場。如果伊朗和美國就核問題達(dá)成正式協(xié)議，從而解除石油禁運(yùn)，全球原油供應(yīng)就會(huì)進(jìn)一步上升。分析師估算，到2016年，解禁后的伊朗可能會(huì)讓全球石油日供應(yīng)量增加100萬桶。屆時(shí)如果美國頁巖油企業(yè)資金耗盡，伊朗的石油將為市場供應(yīng)提供緩沖。

????4. 可再生能源越發(fā)廉價(jià)。本月初，《金融時(shí)報(bào)》引述某位未具名沙特官員的話稱：“沙特希望石油時(shí)代延續(xù)下去……希望石油仍是主要能源，也希望沙特仍是主要產(chǎn)油國。”這也是OPEC成員國減產(chǎn)動(dòng)力不大的另一個(gè)原因，即可再生能源已經(jīng)開始讓化石燃料面臨真正的競爭，而產(chǎn)油國愿意維持石油的廉價(jià)能源地位。

????人們經(jīng)常說，低油價(jià)不會(huì)妨礙太陽能等可再生能源崛起，因?yàn)槭椭饕獮槠嚨葯C(jī)器提供動(dòng)力，而可再生能源大多用于發(fā)電。然而，高油價(jià)也是電動(dòng)汽車等產(chǎn)品的福音。舉例來說，美國汽車信息網(wǎng)站Edmunds.com上個(gè)月報(bào)道，電動(dòng)汽車的用戶忠誠度有史以來首次跌至50%以下。Edmunds產(chǎn)業(yè)分析總監(jiān)杰西卡?考德威爾表示：“不管怎么說，現(xiàn)在看來許多混合動(dòng)力車以及電動(dòng)汽車車主換車就是為了省錢，而不是出于保護(hù)環(huán)境的責(zé)任感?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????審校：夏林

????While there’s still time for Roubini’s prediction to come true, the intervening months have shown that producers around the world—from embattled drillers in war-torn Iraq, to shale concerns here in the U.S.—aren’t being scared off by cheap prices. Here are four reasons why we can expect the era of cheap oil to continue, even as Americans consume more gasoline this summer.

????1. Low interest rates mean cheap money for American producers.A report in The Wall Street Journal Sunday showed that despite falling prices, investors are still eager to fund oil exploration and extraction efforts here in the U.S. With interest rates so low and investors searching for anything that will provide decent returns, even oil companies facing high costs of production and low market prices are having no problem getting funding:

????“As crude prices began to plunge last year, many energy experts predicted a repeat of 1986 when U.S. oil companies lost their funding and the industry collapsed into a yearslong bust. Without money, companies had to slow or even stop drilling for the crude that helped create a global glut. Many were forced to sell out to rivals or go bankrupt.”

????“But the gloomy scenario of that downturn hasn’t played out on a large scale this time. That is because banks, private-equity firms and institutional investors have continued to pour money into the sector even as oil companies slashed billions of dollars in spending from their budgets and laid off more than 100,000 workers.”

????2. Saudi Arabia has no choice but to keep pumping.Long gone are the days when Saudi Arabia acted as the so-called “swing producer” in the global oil market, when it would increase or decrease production to keep prices stable and profits high. A report in The New York Times delves into what has changed in the Middle Eastern kingdom over the last generation. For one, political instability has made maintaining employment in the oil industry more important than keeping government revenues from oil sales high. Second, the explosion in oil production elsewhere in the world means that Saudi Arabia’s production just isn’t as significant as it once was. And finally, over the previous 30 years, Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on selling lower quality oil as its supply of “sweeter” crude has dwindled. To facilitate this, the kingdom has invested in its refinery capabilities, and that investment demands that it keep the oil flowing, even amid falling prices.

????3.Iran’s oil could soon hit the global market. If Iran and the United States finalize an agreement on the latter’s nuclear enrichment program and lift an embargo against Iranian oil, we would see another increase in global supply. Analysts estimate that a sanction-free Iran could add another 1 million barrels per day of oil to global supply by 2016, providing a supply cushion if U.S. shale producers end up running out of financing.

????4. Renewable energy continues to get cheaper.Earlier this month, an unnamed Saudi official told The Financial Times, “Saudi Arabia wants to extend the age of oil…. We want oil to continue to be used as a major source of energy and we want to be the major producer of that energy.” That logic is another reason why OPEC countries have less of an incentive to cut back production: renewable energy sources is starting to give fossil fuels some serious competition, and oil-exporting countries have an interest in keeping oil a cheap alternative.

????It’s often said that cheap oil will not hurt the rise of renewables like solar because oil is used mainly to power things like automobiles, while renewables are mostly used for electricity generation. But expensive oil has been a boon to products like electric cars, too. Edmunds.com announced last month, for instance, that for the first time ever loyalty rates for electric car owners fell below 50%. “For better or worse, it looks like many hybrid and EV owners are driven more by financial motives rather than a responsibility to the environment,” said Edmunds.com director of industry analysis Jessica Caldwell.