????手工藝品交易網(wǎng)站Esty的IPO仿佛在當紅夜總會一夜狂歡，之后，從股價來看，這家公司及其投資者就一頭跌向了“貧民窟”。

????上周，走勢低迷的Etsy的股價首次跌破16美元的發(fā)行價，和上市首日收盤價相比，股價已下跌超過50%。今年新股表現(xiàn)并不是很好，平均漲幅僅為15%，低于去年的21%和前年的40%。而Etsy則是其中最差的一只。

????看了Etsy提交的IPO文件后，我就猜到人們對這只股票過于熱情了。上市以來，該公司的業(yè)績一直下滑。

????今年第一季度，該公司收入增長44%，接近5900萬美元。增幅確實可觀，但在線商城收入增速繼續(xù)放緩。一季度此項收入盡管上升了27%，但增幅低于2014年全年的38%，也稍低于當季在線交易總額28%的升幅。這意味著Etsy收取的交易手續(xù)費也呈下降趨勢，只是幅度較小。

????一季度收入猛增的動力來自Etsy向個人和小企業(yè)賣家提供的服務。但如果在線交易增速放慢，可以想見賣家很快就會發(fā)現(xiàn)購買Etsy的額外服務沒什么好處。

????不過，Etsy的最大問題在于費用比銷售額增長得更快。一季度，公司的費用同比上升了72%。在這種情況下，通常虧損額會增加，除非在測算業(yè)績時另辟蹊徑，Esty顯然就是這么做的。

????除了按通用會計準則（GAAP）公布官方業(yè)績，Etsy還披露了所謂的非通用會計準則調(diào)整后息稅折舊攤銷前利潤，且聲稱這才是其衡量業(yè)績采用的方法。果不其然，Etsy表示，按照這個標準，一季度凈利潤增長了近10%，并沒有受到成本大幅上升的影響。實際上，該公司當季凈利潤下降了近3600萬美元。

????同時，Etsy“設想的”凈利潤和實際數(shù)字之間的差距也在變大。一年前，二者相差700萬美元；今年一季度已經(jīng)達到4300萬美元。

????如果說Etsy的股價像其網(wǎng)站上出售的手工藝品一樣以質(zhì)定價，這也沒什么問題。但Etsy的股票完全不是那么回事。盡管股價下跌，該公司目前的市銷率仍接近8倍。而作為規(guī)模遠超Esty的競爭對手，亞馬遜的市銷率僅略高于2倍。而且，亞馬遜已經(jīng)打算推出名為Amazon Handmade的業(yè)務，將和Esty展開更直接競爭。

????總之，Esty身為上市公司的苦日子還在后頭。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????審校：夏林

????Etsy’s initial public offering felt like a night at the Stork Club. But since then, the stock price of the vintage and craft online marketplace suggests that the company and its investors are headed for a Hooverville.

????Last week, Etsy’s stock price dropped below its $16 offering price for the first time since its IPO. But the company’s shares have been doing terribly for a while. Shares of Etsy ETSY 7.60% have fallen more than 50% from where they stood at the end of its first day of trading. That makes it the worst performing IPO, based on that measure, in a year when IPOs haven’t been doing all that well. The average IPO has risen 15% from its offering price this year. That’s down from 21% last year, and 40% the year before that.

????I predicted that the enthusiasm for Etsy’s shares was overblown, based on the filing it made for its IPO. Since going public, Etsy’s numbers have only grown worse.

????Revenue in the first quarter at the company did grow an impressive 44% to nearly $59 million. But the increase in revenue the company received from selling stuff on its website continued to slow. It was 27% in the first quarter, down from 38% for all of 2014. And that 27% was slightly slower than the 28% increase in total merchandise sold on Etsy’s site during the first quarter, meaning the transaction fees Etsy is collecting must be shrinking, but only by a little bit.

????The big jump in revenue for Etsy came from selling services to people and small businesses who sell their stuff on Etsy’s website. But if sales of stuff on Etsy’s website are slowing, you would expect merchants would quickly see little benefit in paying for additional services from Etsy.

????Etsy’s biggest problem, though, is that its expenses grew even faster, up 72% from the quarter a year ago, than its sales. And when that happens, you typically lose more money; except, apparently, when Etsy does the counting, probably on an abacus or something like that.

????Along with its official earnings, as measured by generally accepted accounting principles, Etsy releases something called its non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA profits, which is the way it says it measures results. Unsurprisingly, Etsy says, by its profit measure, earnings were up nearly 10% in the first quarter, despite the huge jump in costs. Etsy’s actual bottom line fell by nearly $36 million.

????What also grew was the gap between Etsy’s imagined earnings and its real bottom line. A year ago, the gap was $7 million. It grew to $43 million in its most recent quarter.

????That might be okay for a company that, like the stuff sold on Etsy, seems to be priced for the quality you are getting. But that’s not the case for Etsy’s shares. Despite the drop, Etsy’s stock still trades at nearly 8 times its sales. That compares to just over 2 times for much larger rival Amazon, which has plans to launch a service called Amazon Handmade, which will more directly compete with Etsy.

????Etsy’s life as a public company will continue to be one of hard knocks.