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為什么說中國股市要比希臘債務(wù)重要10倍

為什么說中國股市要比希臘債務(wù)重要10倍

Alan Murray 2015-07-09
希臘債務(wù)危機(jī)吸引了全世界的目光,但對未來而言,中國股市暴跌讓人擔(dān)心的程度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過前者。

????這里有一道數(shù)學(xué)題:3500億美元和3萬億美元哪個更大?前者是希臘的債務(wù)總額,后者則是一個月來中國股市蒸發(fā)的財富。二者的差距表明,人們過多地關(guān)注了一個錯誤的對象。

????本周二(7月7日)滬深股市繼續(xù)大幅下探,英勇的救市行為未能奏效。IPO已暫停,做空也已被禁,700多只股票停牌,約占全部A股的四分之一。同時,一只政府支持的基金買進(jìn)了數(shù)十億美元的股票,真是不錯。

????除了1929年,類似情景這些年都不曾出現(xiàn)過。在截至今年6月12日的一年時間里,在蜂擁而入的股市新投資者推動下,滬市大漲150%。今年初以來,這些新投資者開立了1800萬個證券賬戶,超過了此前四年的總和。債務(wù)猛增,投資信貸規(guī)模差不多是一年前的五倍?,F(xiàn)在,在所難免的泡沫開始破裂。

????我們應(yīng)該擔(dān)心嗎?可能不用。中國股市基本上獨立于其他市場。但就像1929年的情形告訴我們的那樣,股市的劇烈波動可能帶來嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治后果。

????同時,美國政界對中國的指責(zé)正變得越發(fā)激烈。本周一(7月6日),希拉里·克林頓也加入了這一行列,稱中國“正試圖對美國所有不會動的東西進(jìn)行網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊,竊取國防承包商的商業(yè)機(jī)密和設(shè)計圖紙以及大量政府信息,以求占得上風(fēng)謀得先機(jī)?!?/p>

????對中國政府而言,風(fēng)險日增的內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)加上日益激烈的外部指責(zé),內(nèi)外夾擊造成的局面充滿變數(shù)。(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Charlie

????校對:詹妮

????Here’s a math quiz. Which number is larger: $350 billion? Or $3 trillion? The first is Greece’s total debt. The second is wealth that has evaporated from the Chinese stock market in the last month. The difference suggests we are paying too much attention to the wrong thing.

????The Shanghai and Shenzen exchanges continued their rout Tuesday, despite heroic efforts to stop them. IPOs have been shut down, short-selling has been banned, more than 700 shares – about a quarter of the market – have been suspended from trading, and, oh yes, a government-backed fund is buying billions of dollars worth of stock.

????The parallel here is not recent experience, but 1929. In the year before June 12, prices on the Shanghai exchange rose 150%, driven by a surge of new traders – 18 million brokerage accounts were created since the first of the year, more than in the previous four years combined – and a bulge of debt – margin credit roughly quintupled over the preceding year. Now the inevitable bubble is popping.

????Should we care? Maybe not: the Chinese market is largely independent from the rest of the world. But as 1929 reminds, wild swings in markets can have severe economic and political consequences.

????In the meantime, attacks on China are becoming increasingly heated in the U.S. political debate. Hillary Clinton joined yesterday, saying China is “trying to hack into everything that doesn’t move in America – stealing commercial secrets, blueprints from defense contractors, stealing huge amounts of government information, all looking for advantage.”

????For the Chinese government, rising economic insecurity on the inside combined with heated attacks from the outside make for a volatile mix.

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