????過(guò)去幾周中國(guó)股市直線下墜，開始回吐此前12個(gè)月的巨大漲幅。中國(guó)證監(jiān)會(huì)已經(jīng)出手干預(yù)，試圖遏制市場(chǎng)滑坡。許多中國(guó)公司的管理層都選擇了停牌，這加劇了目前籠罩市場(chǎng)的恐慌心態(tài)。同時(shí)，美國(guó)市場(chǎng)交易的中國(guó)科技公司ADR（美國(guó)存托憑證）也出現(xiàn)了相當(dāng)大的跌幅。

????15年來(lái)，我所在的紀(jì)源資本風(fēng)投公司一直積極在中國(guó)投資，在華業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模已經(jīng)很大。我們支持的中國(guó)公司包括一些實(shí)力最強(qiáng)的新經(jīng)濟(jì)企業(yè)，如阿里巴巴、去哪兒網(wǎng)和歡聚時(shí)代。我們的中國(guó)合作伙伴也參與了百度和小米等其他中國(guó)科技公司的最早期投資。我們?cè)谥袊?guó)投入了大量資金，親眼目睹了這些公司的發(fā)展。我們也經(jīng)受住了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫、非典、全球金融危機(jī)等一系列困難的考驗(yàn)。因此，最近許多人都在問(wèn)我中國(guó)出了什么事，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景如何，以及美國(guó)科技和風(fēng)投市場(chǎng)可能受到哪些影響。我總結(jié)了一些關(guān)鍵因素，并提出了我對(duì)這些問(wèn)題的看法，具體如下。

????中國(guó)股市暴跌有因

????中國(guó)有多個(gè)股票交易市場(chǎng)，上交所和深交所是中國(guó)兩大股票市場(chǎng)，許多增長(zhǎng)緩慢、從事線下經(jīng)營(yíng)的國(guó)有企業(yè)都在此上市，但它們只有少數(shù)股份可以流通。這些國(guó)企往往在中國(guó)處于壟斷位置。另外還有三個(gè)類似納斯達(dá)克的市場(chǎng)，分別是深圳創(chuàng)業(yè)板（即三板市場(chǎng)）、北京新三板和最新的上交所戰(zhàn)略新興產(chǎn)業(yè)板。這三個(gè)市場(chǎng)的上市條件不那么嚴(yán)格，囊括了其他地方性公司，其中許多都以線下經(jīng)濟(jì)為重點(diǎn)，或者是增長(zhǎng)緩慢的小眾企業(yè)。去年夏天之前，這三個(gè)市場(chǎng)上的股票在四年時(shí)間里一直處于穩(wěn)步下滑狀態(tài)。

????同時(shí)，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，許多上市公司都披露了良好業(yè)績(jī)。因此，在這個(gè)階段中國(guó)股票的估值倍數(shù)下降，吸引力開始上升。最終牛市出現(xiàn)了，而且最初是建立在基本面上的。隨后，政府放寬了政策，包括提高了散戶借助抵押融資的交易能力，此舉使得投資者可以獲得更多資金，再加上他們急于買進(jìn)那些正在升值的股票，股市開始進(jìn)一步上揚(yáng)。這樣的高歌猛進(jìn)一直延續(xù)到大約一個(gè)月前，中國(guó)股市隨后開始直線下滑。此前的漲幅很大。比如說(shuō)，過(guò)去3-4周出現(xiàn)滑坡前，A股在12個(gè)月時(shí)間里的平均升幅約為140%。

????政府有何舉措？為什么要這樣做？

????中國(guó)政府的首要任務(wù)是建立繁榮而且開放的資本市場(chǎng)，其中的重要步驟之一就是讓一些最優(yōu)質(zhì)的中國(guó)企業(yè)在國(guó)內(nèi)上市。中國(guó)的牛市延續(xù)到了一個(gè)月之前，套利空間變得越來(lái)越大。在美國(guó)以ADR方式上市交易的中國(guó)公司感覺如果回到A股市場(chǎng)，會(huì)拿到更高估值。因此，一些赴美上市的中國(guó)公司宣布退市，中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)基金、這些公司的管理層以及中國(guó)金融機(jī)構(gòu)聯(lián)手對(duì)這些ADR，也就是在美上市的中國(guó)企業(yè)提出了收購(gòu)要約。他們的最終目標(biāo)是將這些公司重組為中國(guó)境內(nèi)企業(yè)，然后讓他們登陸中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)。鑒于中國(guó)政府以壯大國(guó)內(nèi)股市為首要任務(wù)，我認(rèn)為這樣的行為獲得了暗中支持，更多中國(guó)企業(yè)也要退市的傳聞也推動(dòng)許多中國(guó)公司ADR走強(qiáng)。

????眼下，隨著中國(guó)股市開始暴跌，中國(guó)政府更關(guān)心穩(wěn)定市場(chǎng)這種眼前的問(wèn)題，這和美股動(dòng)蕩不安時(shí)美國(guó)政府救市的行為類似。到目前為止，中國(guó)政府的措施看來(lái)力度很大（如在很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間里禁止股東減持，暫停新股發(fā)行等），但一直未能扭轉(zhuǎn)A股的頹勢(shì)。許多公司都停了牌，這讓情況變得更糟，因?yàn)樗屇切┍淮呃U保證金，急需融資的投資者更加恐慌。

????China’s stock markets have been in free-fall for the past several weeks, reversing tremendous gains over the prior twelve months. The Chinese version of the SEC (CSRC) has intervened, attempting to staunch the slide. The management teams of many local Chinese companies have unilaterally halted trading in their own stocks, adding to the panic that currently prevails. Additionally, the ADRs (American Depository Receipts) of the shares in Chinese tech companies that trade in the U.S. have also fallen pretty sharply.

????At my venture capital firm, GGV Capital, we’ve been actively investing in China with a strong local presence for the past 15 years. We’ve backed some of the strongest new-economy Chinese companies that have emerged including Alibaba BABA 1.21% , Qunar QUNR 0.36% and YY YY 0.08% , and our China-based partners have been involved at the earliest stages of other Chinese tech companies such as Baidu BIDU 0.10% and Xiaomi. We’re heavily invested in China and are on the ground to see developments first-hand. We’ve lived through the Internet bubble, SARS and the global financial crisis, to name a few. As a result, I’ve gotten lots of questions recently about what’s going on in China, the prospects for the Chinese economy, and what the impacts might be on the US tech and VC markets. I’ve summarized some of the key elements of the story and my perspective on these questions below.

????The Chinese stock market sell off in context

????China has several local exchanges. The Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges (which include “A-Share, Renminbi denominated stocks) are the most developed and include many low-growth, offline-economy, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with minority stakes that trade publicly. SOEs are often local monopolies. There are also three Nasdaq styled exchanges – the Shenzhen-based Chinext (aka “3rd board), the Beijing based “New Third Board” and the very new “Special Shanghai Board.” These three exchanges have less stringent listing criteria, and include other local companies, many of which are offline-economy focused or niche players with slowing growth. Chinese stocks on all of these exchanges fell steadily for roughly the four years leading up to last summer.

????Meanwhile, the Chinese economy kept growing and many publicly-listed companies exhibited solid financial performance. As a result, Chinese stocks got cheaper on a multiple basis during this period and started to look more attractive. Eventually a rally ensued, initially based on fundamentals. Subsequently, more liberal government policies, including the enhanced ability for individuals (retail investors) to buy on margin, began to fuel further stock appreciation as investors had access to more capital and a thirst to bet on appreciating equities. This spiraled on itself until roughly one month ago when Chinese stocks began their nose-dive. The surge was meaningful – for example, A-Shares were up on average approximately 140% in the 12 months before the fall of the past 3-4 weeks.

????What is the government doing and why?

????The government has a priority to build flourishing, open capital markets in China. One important step is to have some of the highest quality Chinese companies trade locally. As local Chinese stocks rallied up until a month ago, an arbitrage window began to open up. Chinese companies trading in the US with ADRs looked like they’d have much higher valuations on Chinese exchanges. As a result, several take-private transactions were announced, where local Chinese funds partnered with management teams and local financial institutions to announce buyout offers for ADR, U.S.-listed Chinese companies, with the ultimate plan of restructuring these companies as onshore Chinese entities and taking them public locally. Given the government’s priority of building out the local Chinese stock markets, I believe there’s tacit support for these types of deals, and many of the U.S.-listed ADRs rallied on rumors of more take-private offers coming.

????Now with the local markets in free fall, the Chinese government is more focused in the short term on trying to calm the markets, similar to the moves we’ve seen the U.S. government make in times of local market strife. To date, these moves seem pretty draconian (e.g., unilaterally locking up insiders from selling stock for a long while, closing the IPO window, etc.) and have been ineffective in reversing the slide. Making matters worse, many companies have halted trading in their own stocks, further stoking panic fears among investors who are getting margin calls and needing to find liquidity urgently.