????截至8月13日，人民幣已經(jīng)連續(xù)第三天貶值，當(dāng)日收跌1.1%，三日累計跌幅創(chuàng)數(shù)十年新高。過去一周，人民幣貶值引起全球市場動蕩，因為投資者擔(dān)心全球貿(mào)易會失衡，爆發(fā)貨幣戰(zhàn)。

????對于人民幣貶值，空頭可能有些夸大其辭，但值得注意的是，它不僅對宏觀經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生影響，也可能影響到美國普羅大眾的日常生活，從休閑娛樂的成本到牛奶的價格，無所不包。美國國內(nèi)物價漲跌可能有多種原因，人民幣匯率波動也可能是原因之一。

????以下我們來看一看這背后有什么聯(lián)系。

????由于人民幣貶值，人民幣一元能兌換到的美元更少，中國消費者要花比過去更多的人民幣才能買到美國的產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)。進口價格上漲，但中國國內(nèi)的工資也保持不變，所以中國消費者購買美國商品的難度會更大。

????以美國電影視頻流媒體服務(wù)商奈飛為例。該公司正摩拳擦掌，準備進軍中國市場。中國最大電商阿里巴巴參與成立的新合資公司也將成為奈飛的對手。要與本土的流媒體服務(wù)競爭，奈飛就必須提供更有競爭力的價格吸引用戶。這將給該公司在中國市場獲得盈利帶來壓力。人民幣匯率走低會加劇奈飛的盈利壓力，因為奈飛的服務(wù)對中國用戶來說會變得比較貴，該公司甚至可能不得不為了吸引客戶而進一步降價。

????中國市場的利潤下降可能迫使奈飛為增加收入而上調(diào)美國市場的價格。而漲價又可能導(dǎo)致奈飛失去一些美國客戶，分析師將因此下調(diào)奈飛的盈利預(yù)期，這又給奈飛的股價施加下行壓力。

????假設(shè)有一位老板，他的公司為牛奶加工廠使用的機器提供零部件。他喜歡看奈飛的視頻。作為一個年收入20萬美元的老板，他可能不介意奈飛提供的網(wǎng)上娛樂服務(wù)每月漲那么1美元，但他會在意持有奈飛股票的共同基金價值縮水，那可是上萬美元的損失。為彌補這種投資損失，他會被迫上調(diào)旗下公司的零部件售價，那么加工牛奶的廠商也有必要漲價了。

????人民幣貶值就是這樣波及全球經(jīng)濟生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的。最終，它不僅影響美國人付費看《紙牌屋》的價格，也會改變美國超市一加侖牛奶的價格。

????當(dāng)然，以上只是簡單的例子，許許多多不可預(yù)知的因素都可能改變上述美國漲價的結(jié)果。按照以上預(yù)測情境，如果那家牛奶加工廠從中國購買設(shè)備零部件，其實還能因為人民幣貶值而受益。而且，匯率波動的影響往往比較遲緩，不會那么快擴大到整個經(jīng)濟層面，何況匯率自身也受到供需等其他因素影響。中國出口價格下跌會推動人民幣的需求增長，長遠來看人民幣幣值還會反彈，那樣一來，奈飛的定價又可以恢復(fù)正常。

????無論如何，以上多種因素的綜合影響無疑會改變現(xiàn)狀。這正是美國消費者應(yīng)該擔(dān)心的。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????本文作者Kumar是科技與商業(yè)領(lǐng)域評論員，覆蓋科技、傳媒和電信行業(yè)的投資銀行業(yè)務(wù)。對于本文提及的上市公司，他并未持有任何一家的股票。

????譯者：Pessy

????校對：詹妮

????China devalued its currency for the third consecutive day Thursday, a drop of 1.1% from Wednesday and collectively the largest drop in decades. The devaluation has caused turmoil in markets all over the world this past week due to fears of a global trade imbalance and currency wars.

????But while the naysayers may be overstating the case, it’s worth noting that China’s currency devaluation doesn’t just have a macroeconomic impact but could also affect the everyday lives of average Americans, from the cost of entertainment to the price of milk. While prices in the U.S. may fluctuate for a number of reasons, they could also be impacted by currency movements in China.

????Here’s how this could happen.

????When the Chinese yuan is devalued, it costs a Chinese consumer more in the local currency to buy an American product or service since each yuan now buys fewer dollars. But even though the price has gone up, local wages remain the same, making it more difficult for the Chinese consumer to make the purchase.

????Take a company like Netflix NFLX 2.67% as one example, which is gearing up to enter the Chinese market. To compete with local streaming services, including a new venture by Chinese ecommerce giant Alibaba BABA 2.36% , the company will have to offer competitive pricing to attract subscribers, putting pressure on its margins in China. This impact is worsened by a weaker yuan, which would effectively make Netflix more expensive for local viewers and force the company to lower prices even further to gain traction.

????Lower profitability from China might then require Netflix to raise its prices in the U.S. to boost its bottom line. But higher pricing could also lead to a loss in subscribers, which would result in analysts downgrading their projections for the streaming video provider. That would depress the stock price.

????Now consider the owner of a company that provides machine parts for a milk processing plant, and who likes to watch Netflix. While the owner, who makes $200,000 a year, may not care about a $1 per month increase in his online entertainment costs, he would care about a decrease in the value of his mutual fund that holds Netflix stock, which could amount to thousands of dollars. To make up for this loss, he in turn would have to raise the prices of his machine parts, which would then make it necessary for the company providing milk to increase its prices.

????And that’s how the currency devaluation in China can ripple through the global economic ecosystem to ultimately impact not just how much you pay to watch House of Cards, but the price of a gallon of milk on your local supermarket shelf.

????Obviously, this is a simplistic example and a myriad of unpredictable factors could change the outcome. In the above scenario, the milk processing plant could simply buy its machine parts from China to take advantage of a weaker yuan. In addition, the effects of foreign exchange fluctuations are usually slow to spread through the wider economy, and in itself are subject to other influences such as supply and demand. Cheaper Chinese exports would lead to a higher demand for the yuan, which would cause it to rise back up in value over time and enable Netflix to normalize its pricing.

????But the collective impact of several such scenarios definitely can make a difference and that’s what American consumers should be worried about.

????Kumar is a tech and business commentator. He has worked in technology, media, and telecom investment banking. He does not own any shares of the companies mentioned in this article.