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美聯(lián)儲是否會出手救市?

美聯(lián)儲是否會出手救市?

Chris Matthews 2015-08-25
全球股市動蕩令人們不由質(zhì)疑:美聯(lián)儲是否應避免加息?甚至說它是否應增加刺激性政策來出手救市?

????美股遭遇了自大蕭條結(jié)束以來的最大回調(diào),在一片動蕩中,前美國財政部長拉里?薩默斯為代表的一些有識之士,正呼吁人們反思美聯(lián)儲加息預期,后者被普遍認為或?qū)⒃?月份的美國聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)會議上宣布。

????薩默斯指出,由于各大股市目前“正在抑制信心過度”,美聯(lián)儲沒有必要加息,并且,任何加息意愿都是希望經(jīng)濟回到穩(wěn)定增長、不需要接近零利率刺激的狀態(tài)。 今早在Twitter上,他的分析更不容樂觀:

????In the midst of the worst market correction since the end of the Great Recession, really smart guys like former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers are calling in to question the conventional wisdom that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting in September.

????Summers argues that since markets themselves are now, “dampening overconfidence,” there is no need for the Fed to raise rates, and that any desire to raise rates is a wishful longing for an economic past when steady economic growth didn’t demand near-zero rates. On Twitter this morning, Summers’ analysis took an even darker turn:

????“要判斷美聯(lián)儲下一步是否采取緊縮措施,現(xiàn)在還太難看清。如同1997、1998、2007和2008年的那些8月一樣,我們可能正走向非常嚴峻的情況?!?/font>

????對于一個緊密關(guān)注最近全球金融市場動蕩的權(quán)威人士來說,這樣的結(jié)論可謂令人恐慌。但另一方面,雖然美股市值已跌去10%,但即便在牛市,市場出現(xiàn)回調(diào)也很正常。在上周之前,美股已有將近1000天未出現(xiàn)回調(diào),而根據(jù)德意志銀行的統(tǒng)計,每輪股市回調(diào)的平均周期是357天。

????股市的修正調(diào)整時有發(fā)生,而薩默斯等人甚至在此次處境惡化之前就提出美聯(lián)儲不應加息。然而如果依美聯(lián)儲所說,即以經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)為依據(jù)來采取行動,那么我們就不該認為美聯(lián)儲會因為此次股市暴跌而啟動新的購債項目,甚至實施負利率。

????Renaissance Macro經(jīng)濟研究主管尼爾·多塔在周一早間在一份客戶聲明中指出,美聯(lián)儲密切關(guān)注的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù),如失業(yè)率、銀行借貸、經(jīng)濟增長等都顯示美國經(jīng)濟至少在持續(xù)前行,并且失業(yè)率還有比較明顯的改善,“因此,美國近幾周的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)并不足以導致金融市場重新定價?!?/p>

????此外,他還指出,對太平洋沿岸地區(qū)的出口僅占美國GDP總額的2%,即便該區(qū)域貿(mào)易額下跌10%,對于全年GDP的影響也只有0.2%。雖然這一情況美聯(lián)儲應持續(xù)監(jiān)控,但中國經(jīng)濟的急劇下滑并不會改變美聯(lián)儲的決策。

????即便如此,美聯(lián)儲如果決定等到12月甚至明年再加息也不是沒有理由。有關(guān)經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)一直存在合理爭論。薩默斯就指出:“消費者價格指數(shù)成份股中超過一半的股價在過去六個月有所下跌,而該情況是‘10多年來首次出現(xiàn)’”。

????這是事實,美聯(lián)儲一直在設法解決一段時間內(nèi)通脹水平不高的問題。由于失業(yè)率在明顯下降,緊縮的勞動力市場并沒有為美聯(lián)儲帶來它所期望的小幅通脹上升。更準確地說,在通脹問題上,美聯(lián)儲是拿“預期”做依據(jù),因為它必須在通脹到來前盡量做好預測,等到發(fā)現(xiàn)通脹不足就晚了。

????換句話說,如果只看那些讓人捉摸不清,甚至有時候相互矛盾的經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù),要決定是否在9月份加息實屬不易。就算近幾周股市動蕩沒有加劇,要做出這樣的決策也一樣困難。(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Donna

????This sort of commentary is pretty scary coming from a guy who watched the most recent global financial panic from the front row. But it’s also true that stock market corrections, in which the market loses more than 10% of its value, are very common, even in bull markets. Before last week, it had been nearly 1,000 days since the last correction, when the average span between such events is 357 days, according to Deutsche Bank.

????Stock market corrections happen all the time, and folks like Summers didn’t think the Federal Reserve should raise rates this year even before markets hit this rough patch. But if we take the Federal Reserve at its word—that its actions will be dependent on economic data—there’s no reason to believe that the Fed will take the latest market rout as a reason to step in and launch another bond buying program or even implement a program of negative interest rates.

????As Neil Dutta, head of economic research for Renaissance Macro, pointed out in a note to clients Monday morning, the economic data that the Fed pays close attention to—like the unemployment rate, bank lending, and economic growth—suggest that the U.S. economy continues to, at the very least, tread, water or, in the case of employment growth, make clear progress. “Thus, the performance of the US data in recent weeks is not a sufficient reason for the re-pricing in financial markets,” he writes.

????Furthermore, he points out that since exports to the Pacific Rim account for just 2% of U.S. GDP, even a 10% decline in trade to that region would only shave 0.2% off GDP growth for an entire year. This is certainly a situation worth monitoring for the Fed, but a sharp slowdown in China is not a game changer for the Federal Reserve.

????That said, there has always been the chance that the Fed would decide to wait until December or even next year to begin raising rates. There’s a legitimate argument over just what the economic data says. Summers points out that, “more than half the components of the consumer price index have declined in the past six months, and that this is “the first time this has happened in more than a decade.”

????This is true, but the Fed has publicly been wrestling with the question of why inflation hasn’t been higher for some time. While unemployment is clearly trending downward, there hasn’t been the sort of uptick in inflation that Fed leaders expect to result from a tighter labor market. When it comes to inflation, it’s actually more accurate to say that the Fed is “forecast dependent” because it must try to predict when inflation is on its way; it can’t be satisfied with a lack of inflation in its rearview mirror.

????In other words, the decision to raise rates in September will be a difficult one based on fuzzy and sometimes conflicting data. But that would have been the case even if stock market volatility hadn’t increased so much in recent weeks.

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