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中國(guó)央行降息降準(zhǔn),分析師怎么看?

中國(guó)央行降息降準(zhǔn),分析師怎么看?

Geoffrey Smith 2015-08-27
盡管央行周二發(fā)布降息降準(zhǔn)聲明時(shí),只字未提過去兩天的股市崩盤,但分析師普遍認(rèn)為,這項(xiàng)寬松政策的主要目的正是拯救陷入死亡螺旋的中國(guó)股市。

????中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)在兩天內(nèi)暴跌超過15%。在此期間,央行一直袖手旁觀。但本周二,中國(guó)央行宣布下調(diào)官方貸款利率和銀行存款準(zhǔn)備金要求,此舉看來(lái)似乎是在努力阻止股市崩盤。

????中國(guó)人民銀行宣布,將一年期貸款基準(zhǔn)利率下調(diào)0.25個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至4.6%,一年期存款基準(zhǔn)利率下調(diào)0.25個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至1.75%。另外一項(xiàng)重要舉措是,將大型銀行的存款準(zhǔn)備金率降低0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn),這一措施有望釋放出約1000億美元的流動(dòng)性——這筆資金有可能被注入實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì),而不是囤積在央行。

????本周一,對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭的擔(dān)憂導(dǎo)致股票和大宗商品價(jià)格暴跌,全球股市一片混亂。中國(guó)央行的“雙降”措施,無(wú)異于給全球金融市場(chǎng)降了一場(chǎng)及時(shí)雨,各國(guó)股市均出現(xiàn)健康反彈。

????然而部分觀察家對(duì)這一舉措感到困惑,因?yàn)樗坪跻?guī)模太小,行動(dòng)太慢,不足以恢復(fù)人們對(duì)中國(guó)決策者們的信心,即相信他們能夠在泡沫破裂的過程中保持市場(chǎng)有序發(fā)展。整個(gè)七月及八月初,中國(guó)政府一直在對(duì)股市進(jìn)行積極干預(yù),希望將股市下跌幅度控制在一定范圍之內(nèi),但決策者隨后似乎逐漸放棄了直接干預(yù),眼看著上證綜指再次下跌25%卻無(wú)動(dòng)于衷。周二,上證綜指下跌7.3%,相比6月份的最高值下跌了43%。

????中國(guó)人民銀行在官網(wǎng)上發(fā)布了一份詳細(xì)的政策聲明,但令人意外的是,聲明中并未提及過去兩天的股市崩盤。本月初,中國(guó)人民銀行在21年來(lái)首次使人民幣對(duì)美元貶值,但之后并未推出更多刺激措施,導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)失望情緒蔓延,過去兩天,滬深兩地市場(chǎng)的跌幅超過了15%。

????中國(guó)人民銀行稱:“本輪定向降準(zhǔn)的目的是進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)金融機(jī)構(gòu)支持‘三農(nóng)’和小微企業(yè)的能力,強(qiáng)化正向激勵(lì),加大對(duì)重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域和薄弱環(huán)節(jié)的支持力度,為大眾創(chuàng)業(yè)與創(chuàng)新提供金融支持?!?/p>

????不可否認(rèn),高實(shí)際利率一直在懲罰中國(guó)的企業(yè)部門,進(jìn)一步加劇了工業(yè)品出廠價(jià)格連續(xù)3年下跌造成的問題。

????關(guān)于未來(lái)的形勢(shì),荷蘭銀行駐倫敦的分析師尼克?庫(kù)尼斯認(rèn)為,中國(guó)人民銀行在其聲明中表示將“更加靈活地”運(yùn)用政策工具,放棄了其通常引用的“審慎的”決策,因此,未來(lái)中國(guó)“有可能”采取更加寬松的政策。

????但有分析人士認(rèn)為,周二的“雙降”措施,對(duì)于許多公司的生死存亡不太可能產(chǎn)生重大影響。至于這些措施能否阻止滬深市場(chǎng)的暴跌,完全是另外一回事。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

????審校:任文科

????After sitting on its hands for two days in which the local stock market fell over 15%, China’s central bank Tuesday cut its official lending rates and its reserve requirements on local banks in what appeared to be an effort to stop the rot.

????The People’s Bank of China said it will cut its one-year lending rate by 0.25 percentage point to 4.6% and its benchmark one-year savings rate by 0.25 point to 1.75%. Just as importantly, it will cut the reserve requirement ratio on most large banks by 0.5 percentage point, freeing up around $100 billion in liquidity that may now be lent to the economy instead of being hoarded at the central bank.

????The move provided an immediate sugar rush to global markets that had, in any case, rebounded healthily after Monday’s turmoil, when fears about the strength of the Chinese economy sent prices for stocks and commodities tumbling.

????However, the action left some observers bemused, appearing too little, too late, to restore confidence in policy-makers’ ability to keep the market orderly as the bubble deflates. The authorities had intervened aggressively through all of July and early August to keep stock losses within bounds, but had appeared to give up direct intervention since then, allowing the Shanghai composite index to fall another 25%. After a 7.3% drop on Tuesday, the SHCOMP is down 43% from its peak in June.

????In an exhaustive policy statement on its website, the PBoC surprisingly made no reference to the carnage on the mainland stock market in the last two days. The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have lost over 15% in that time, not least on disappointment that the PBoC hadn’t delivered any more stimulus since allowing the yuan to depreciate against the dollar for the first time in 21 years earlier this month.

????“This round of targeted RRR cuts aims at strengthening the capacity of financial institutions to support the developments of agricultural sector, rural areas and farmers and micro and small enterprises, reinforcing the positive incentive, supporting the key areas and weak sectors in the national economy and providing financial support to popular entrepreneurship and innovation,” the PBoC said.

????There’s no denying that high real interest rates have been punishing China’s corporate sector, compounding the problems caused by three years of deflation in factory gate prices.

????Reading the tea-leaves, Nick Kounis, an analyst with ABN Amro in London, said there is more easing “on the cards” after the PBoC said in its statement that it will use its policy tools “flexibly” and dropped its usual reference to “prudent” policy making.

????But Tuesday’s action is unlikely to make the difference between life and death for many companies on its own, analysts said. And whether it will stop the exodus from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is another matter entirely.

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