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蔑視成法,不按套路出牌 —— 沃倫?巴菲特之道

蔑視成法,不按套路出牌 —— 沃倫?巴菲特之道

Geoff Colvin 2015-08-31
偷偷嘲笑傳統(tǒng)已經(jīng)成了巴菲特的終身行為方式。伯克希爾-哈撒韋收購Precision Castparts就是最新例證。

????作為伯克希爾-哈撒韋的傳奇CEO,股神沃倫?巴菲特在8月底滿85歲了。今后三周,眺望后巴菲特時代的前瞻性文章必將鋪天蓋地而來,但我不會這么寫。在巴菲特開始邁向90歲之際,就下一屆管理層展開探討似乎合情合理。但幾十年來巴菲特經(jīng)常不按常理出牌,因此,我們也許應該把注意力放在他的下一步行動上。畢竟,巴菲特甚至都未曾顯露過疲態(tài),周一(8月10日)上午的新聞就是證明——他完成了幾年來最大的一筆交易。

????伯克希爾宣布,將花費320億美元現(xiàn)金來收購Precision Castparts(這筆交易總價值372億美元),后者從事精密鑄件生產(chǎn),可丁可卯的精細活。作為伯克希爾掌門人,巴菲特向我們展示了他經(jīng)典的逆市操作手法。今年Precision Castparts的股價下跌了22%,原因是該公司的許多石油和天然氣行業(yè)客戶都受到了低油價的打擊。市場看到的是麻煩,巴菲特看到的則是一家股價便宜、長期前景光明的公司。大多數(shù)人都從未聽說過這家公司,而且會覺得它乏善可陳,但它卻讓巴菲特興奮不已,這一幕已經(jīng)上演過很多次了。巴菲特招致麾下的公司中就有制造床墊的Ohio Mattress和生產(chǎn)磚頭的Acme Brick(這是我最喜歡的一家企業(yè))。

????偷偷嘲笑傳統(tǒng)已經(jīng)成了巴菲特的終身行為方式。眾所周知,他從未分拆過伯克希爾的股票(該公司最近的股價約為每股21.5萬美元),也從未向華爾街分析師透露過自己對伯克希爾季度或年度利潤的預期。不過,他的確會時不時地對投資者說,他覺得伯克希爾的股價過高。他的公司在美國排名第4位(2014年實現(xiàn)收入1950億美元),總部卻只有25名員工。在激進投資者這個名詞出現(xiàn)之前,巴菲特早已開始這樣做了,他開除過多家持股公司的CEO。但和如今行為高調(diào)、動不動就發(fā)推文的激進投資者不同,巴菲特炒掉這些CEO時幾乎總是隱身幕后。

????堅持自己的道路讓巴菲特成為過去50年中最偉大的企業(yè)領袖之一。誰知道他還會在任多久?到目前為止,以可口可樂和漢堡為主的“非主流”飲食給了他格外健康的體魄。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Charlie

校對:詹妮

????Over the next three weeks, the media will be clogged with forward-angled articles looking past the Warren Buffett era at Berkshire Hathaway as the legendary CEO and investor turns 85 at the end of the month. I won’t be writing any of them. While it seems sensible to contemplate the next managerial chapter as a CEO closes in on 90, Buffett has confounded conventional thinking so often over the decades that maybe we should instead focus on what he’ll do next. After all, he isn’t even getting tired, as we see in Monday morning’s news of his biggest deal in years.

????Berkshire has just announced that it will pay $32 billion in cash for Precision Castparts (total deal value: $37.2 billion), a company that could be described non-metaphorically as a nuts-and-bolts business. Here we observe a corporate leader at his most characteristically contrarian: Precision’s stock was down 22% this year because low oil prices have hurt many of its customers in the oil and gas business. But where the market saw trouble, Buffett saw a strong long-term business at a bargain price. And, as he has often done, he got excited by a company most people had never heard of and would regard as hopelessly unglamorous. This is a CEO who has pounced on companies with names like Ohio Mattress and (my favorite) Acme Brick.

????Quietly flouting convention has been Buffett’s lifelong m.o. He has famously never split Berkshire’s stock (recent price: about $215,000 a share), and he never tells Wall Street analysts what he expects Berkshire’s earnings to be this quarter or this year. He does, however, tell investors from time to time that he thinks Berkshire stock is too expensive. He runs America’s fourth-biggest company (2014 revenue: $195 billion) with a headquarters staff of 25. He has been an activist investor since long before the term existed, and he has fired CEOs of companies in which he holds a stake. But, unlike today’s high-profile, vigorously tweeting activists, he has done it almost invisibly.

????By continuing to go his own way, Buffett remains one of the great business leaders of the past 50 years. Who knows how long his reign may last? His Coca-Cola-and-hamburger-based diet, another snub of conventionality, has served him remarkably well so far.

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