中國(guó)花了大半年時(shí)間來(lái)進(jìn)行貨幣改革，以便人民幣進(jìn)入國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的特別提款權(quán)貨幣籃子。最終，中國(guó)方面得償所愿——人民幣即將成為IMF儲(chǔ)備貨幣，與美元、歐元、英鎊和日元這些國(guó)際性儲(chǔ)備貨幣并駕齊驅(qū)。

對(duì)中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)這是一場(chǎng)勝利。兩年來(lái)，中國(guó)一直在努力，目的就是讓人民幣進(jìn)入IMF的特別提款權(quán)貨幣籃子。特別提款權(quán)的唯一實(shí)際作用是供IMF和其他多邊貸款人做賬。但就象征意義而言，它則代表了全球金融市場(chǎng)的權(quán)利歸屬。

因此，人民幣進(jìn)入IMF貨幣籃子將極大提升中國(guó)在金融領(lǐng)域的威望，這不是因?yàn)榇伺e會(huì)促使人們持有人民幣，而是因?yàn)樗砻髂壳爸袊?guó)在“制定規(guī)則”方面有了多大的話語(yǔ)權(quán)。自從布雷頓森林體系在1973年瓦解以來(lái)，特別提款權(quán)貨幣籃子一直都只接納“可自由使用”的貨幣。人民幣距此仍然還有很大的差距，在獲取人民幣方面遇到過困難的外國(guó)生意人或游客都能告訴你這一點(diǎn)。但人民幣的市場(chǎng)化程度已經(jīng)足夠IMF在保住一些面子的同時(shí)對(duì)中國(guó)做出讓步。

一年來(lái)，中國(guó)采取了多項(xiàng)改革措施，其中包括放寬央行對(duì)匯率的嚴(yán)格管理，允許外國(guó)央行無(wú)限制地投資中國(guó)債券市場(chǎng)，以及設(shè)立3個(gè)月政府債券市場(chǎng)（這是進(jìn)入IMF貨幣籃子的技術(shù)細(xì)則提出的要求。）

成為IMF儲(chǔ)備貨幣會(huì)在一定程度上提高中國(guó)政府的外交和政治威信。受工業(yè)滑坡影響，以習(xí)近平領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的本屆政府在實(shí)現(xiàn)GDP增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)方面遇到了困難。不過，在分析師看來(lái)，人民幣進(jìn)入IMF貨幣籃子的唯一實(shí)質(zhì)性好處是，它將逐漸鼓勵(lì)更多外國(guó)投資者持有人民幣。在IMF接納人民幣之前，中國(guó)已經(jīng)實(shí)施的改革打開了國(guó)內(nèi)債券市場(chǎng)的大門，這將使外國(guó)央行乃至一些私人投資者能夠更容易地進(jìn)入這個(gè)市場(chǎng)。

龍洲經(jīng)訊中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家陳龍?jiān)诒本┲赋觯骸叭嗣駧懦蔀椤騼?chǔ)備貨幣’確實(shí)有可能讓更多央行及其他資產(chǎn)管理機(jī)構(gòu)關(guān)注中國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)，特別是境內(nèi)債市。但不應(yīng)僅僅因?yàn)檫@一點(diǎn)，就認(rèn)為其他央行將被迫購(gòu)買大量人民幣資產(chǎn)?！?/p>

大多數(shù)分析師都認(rèn)為，鑒于國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩以及收益率下降造成私人資本外流增多，中國(guó)央行可能利用旺盛而穩(wěn)定的海外需求為人民幣提供一些支持。

今年夏天，中國(guó)央行曾一次性下調(diào)人民幣兌美元中間價(jià)，此舉放寬了匯率政策，使人民幣在一天之內(nèi)貶值1.8%。但從那時(shí)至今，中國(guó)央行又斥資數(shù)百億來(lái)支撐人民幣匯率。這就讓之前那種“貶值是為了再次通過出口來(lái)提振經(jīng)濟(jì)”的說(shuō)法顯得有點(diǎn)兒站不住腳。

包括陳龍?jiān)趦?nèi)，很多分析師都指出，夏季的那次貶值很重要，但不是因?yàn)椤跋抡{(diào)的幅度”，而是因?yàn)閺哪且院笾袊?guó)央行不再自行確定人民幣匯率，而是基于前一日收盤價(jià)設(shè)定一個(gè)波動(dòng)區(qū)間。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

校對(duì)：詹妮

It would be wrong to think that central banks will be forced to buy substantial amounts of renminbi assets just because the currency is included in the SDR basket.

The country spent the better part of a year reforming its currency to join the International Monetary Fund’s special group of world currencies.

China finally got the news it has been lobbying for: its currency, the renminbi, is set to be included in the International Monetary Fund’s basket of top currencies alongside the world’s reserve currency, the U.S. dollar, as well as the Euro, British pound, and Japanese Yen.

It’s a win for China, which has lobbied for the past two years to be included in the club of countries whose currencies make up the ‘Special Drawing Right’. The SDR’s only practical purpose is that it’s the currency in which the IMF and other multilateral lenders draw up their accounts. But symbolically, it has always represented the balance of power in global financial markets.

As such, China’s inclusion significantly bolsters its prestige in the financial world: not because it forces people to hold the renminbi, but because it shows how far China is now dictating the rules of the game: since the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1973, the SDR has only ever included ‘freely usable’ currencies. The renminbi is still far from a ‘freely usable’ currency—as any trader or visitor to China who has trouble accessing the currency from abroad will tell you —but it has been liberalized enough to allow the IMF to yield to China’s pressure while saving some face.

In the past year, China has enacted reforms that included loosening the central bank’s strict management of the exchange rate, allowing foreign central banks unlimited investment in the domestic bond market, and establishing a market for three-month government bills (a technicality for IMF inclusion).

The inclusion affords China’s government under Xi Jinping, which has struggled to meet GDP growth targets amid an industrial recession, some diplomatic and political prestige. However, the only tangible benefit analysts can point to is that the renminbi’s inclusion in SDR will encourage more foreign investors over time to hold the currency because foreign central banks and even some private investors can now more easily access China’s bond market that was opened as a result of the reforms preceding the SDR inclusion.

Says Chen Long of GavekalDragonomics in Beijing: “Granting the renminbi the status of a “global reserve currency” could indeed encourage more central banks and other asset managers to take a look at China’s financial markets, especially the onshore bond market. But it would be wrong to think that central banks will be forced to buy substantial amounts of renminbi assets just because the currency is included in the SDR basket.”

Most analysts agree that the People’s Bank of China could use some help for its currency in the form of strong, stable, foreign demand, now that lower growth and returns at home are driving more private capital abroad.

Since this summer’s “devaluation,” when the yuan fell by 1.8% in one day in response to the loosening of exchange rate rules, it’s been the Chinese central bank itself that has spent tens of billions shoring up the currency–something that gives lie to previous accusations of a fresh attempt to boost the economy through the export channel.

Analysts including Long have argued the move was important not because of the “size of the depreciation”, but rather because the central bank was no longer fixing the trading price of the yuan on its own, instead using a range based upon the previous day’s close.