在近期發(fā)布的研究報(bào)告中，高盛公司頂級(jí)戰(zhàn)略分析師們預(yù)測(cè)稱，2016年的美國(guó)股市將再次令股民失望。據(jù)高盛預(yù)測(cè)，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)將于2016年底收于2100點(diǎn)，相對(duì)于目前的2090點(diǎn)，可以說(shuō)毫無(wú)起色。算上股利后，高盛預(yù)測(cè)2016年的美股回報(bào)率僅為3%，與今年1.5%的回報(bào)率同樣令人難以亢奮。

高盛表示，2016年股市將遭受利率上漲、美元走強(qiáng)和公司盈利停滯等一連串問(wèn)題的沖擊。股價(jià)將成為明年的一個(gè)主要問(wèn)題，而高盛公司稱，如果用歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量，目前的美股價(jià)格已經(jīng)很高了。

這家投行還指出，基于它對(duì)2016年年底各大公司盈利水平的預(yù)測(cè)值，明年美股的市盈率將剛剛超過(guò)16。由大衛(wèi)?科斯汀領(lǐng)銜的高盛分析師團(tuán)隊(duì)寫道：“過(guò)去40年里來(lái)，股票平均市盈率高于今天水平的時(shí)間只占6%?！?/p>

高盛還指出，在美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)首次加息后的6個(gè)月里，美股市盈率還將下跌10個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。高盛稱，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的加息速度很可能會(huì)超出預(yù)期。

另一個(gè)問(wèn)題是盈利停滯。高盛表示，在過(guò)去幾年里，大多數(shù)企業(yè)的邊際利潤(rùn)率都停止增長(zhǎng)。不過(guò)，它們的總體利潤(rùn)還在繼續(xù)上升，其中大部分是以蘋果為首的科技板塊推動(dòng)的。但高盛也預(yù)測(cè)道，就連科技板塊的邊際利潤(rùn)率現(xiàn)在也很可能見頂了。

還是有一些好消息的：2016年美國(guó)企業(yè)的實(shí)際利潤(rùn)并不會(huì)那么糟。高盛稱，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)成分股的平均每股收益明年將增長(zhǎng)10%左右，相比今年有較大反彈，只不過(guò)其中一部分增長(zhǎng)必然是來(lái)自于股權(quán)回購(gòu)，而非實(shí)際收益的增長(zhǎng)。美國(guó)商務(wù)部上周二發(fā)布消息稱，今年第三季度美國(guó)企業(yè)的利潤(rùn)率出現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)以來(lái)最大的同比降幅，下跌幅度達(dá)到5%。而市盈率的下跌(10%)也將抵消股票從更高的公司盈利中獲得的任何收益。

高盛指出，如果你想把運(yùn)氣押在某些個(gè)股身上，那么你最好賭一下那些利潤(rùn)最高的公司，它們受強(qiáng)勢(shì)美元的影響不會(huì)很大。高盛推薦了幾只明年可以入手的個(gè)股，其中包括亞馬遜、墨西哥燒烤快餐店、全食公司和富國(guó)銀行等。

要知道，高盛正在預(yù)測(cè)的是一個(gè)相當(dāng)罕見的局面。投資者一般是不會(huì)垂頭喪氣太長(zhǎng)時(shí)間的。上次股市連續(xù)兩年令人失望的場(chǎng)景，出現(xiàn)在2001和2002年。從1928年至今，股市連續(xù)兩年增幅低于5%的只有5次，其中大多數(shù)都是發(fā)生在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)前后，而高盛并沒(méi)有預(yù)測(cè)稱明年將出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)。

另外，高盛的大多數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)已是眾所周知的事實(shí)。而且，如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的加息速度真的超過(guò)預(yù)期，那也可能是因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)基本面的表現(xiàn)好于預(yù)期。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

審校：任文科

In a research note out recently, Goldman Sachs’ top strategists predict that stocks will once again disappoint next year. Goldman predicts the S&P 500 will go nowhere in the coming year, ending 2016 at 2,100. The stock market index is already at 2,090. Include dividends and Goldman predicts that stocks will return just 3% in 2016. Stocks are up a measly 1.5% in 2015.

Goldman says the market will hit a headwind of rising interest rates, a strengthening dollar, and stalled profitability. One major concern is the price of stocks, which Goldman says are high by historic standards. Goldmansays the price-to-earnings ratio of the market will be just over 16, based on its prediction of where profits will be at the end of 2016. “Only 6% of the time during the last 40 years has the median stock traded at a p/e multiple higher than it does today,” wrote Goldman’s analysts, lead by David Kostin, in the research report.

What’s more, Goldman says p/e multiples tend to fall by 10% in the six months following a Fed’s first interest rate increase, which is widely believed to take place in December. Goldman says the Fed is likely to increase interest rates faster than expected.

Another problem: stalled profitability. Goldman says profit margins at most companies have been flat for the past few years. Yet overall margins have appeared to continue to rise, pushed up mostly by the technology sector, and Apple in particular. But Goldman predicts that even tech sector profit margins have probably peaked at this point.

One bit of good news: Actual profits won’t be that bad in 2016. Goldman says that earnings per share for the average S&P 500 company will rise by about 10% in 2016. That would be a rebound this year, though some of that growth is surely coming from share buybacks and not actual earnings improvements. On Tuesday, the Commerce Department said that corporate profits in the third quarter had the biggest 12-month drop since the recession, down nearly 5%. But the 10% drop in p/e multiples will wipe out any gain stocks would get from higher earnings.

Goldman says if you do want to bet on individuals stocks, it’s better to place your bets on companies that get most of their sales in the U.S. Those companies will not be hit as hard by a strong dollar. Among the stocks Goldman recommends for 2016 are Amazon, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Whole Foods, and Wells Fargo.

Bear in mind, Goldman is predicting a rather rare scenario. Investors don’t tend to stay down in the dumps for long. The last time stocks had two disappointing years in a row was in 2001 and 2002. And there have only been five times since 1928 in which the stock market increased by less than 5% a year for two years in a row. Most of those cases happened around a recession, which is not what Goldman is predicting for next year.

On top of that, most of the things Goldman is predicting are widely acknowledged. And if the Fed ends up raising rates faster than expected, that would probably be because the economy is doing better than expected.