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全球股市再次陷入困境

全球股市再次陷入困境

Geoffrey Smith 2016-01-19
華爾街的大混亂進(jìn)一步加劇了對全球增長預(yù)期的擔(dān)憂。投資者正在避開所有蘊含風(fēng)險的領(lǐng)域,只有貿(mào)易商在苦苦支撐,希望價格不要下降到觸發(fā)大規(guī)模期權(quán)持倉的水平。

由于對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的擔(dān)憂日益加劇,導(dǎo)致華爾街遭受了重大損失,最近,全球股票市場再次暴跌。

作為全球增長風(fēng)向標(biāo)的石油和其他大宗商品、新興市場貨幣、能源與礦業(yè)股票,均出現(xiàn)大幅下跌,因為投資者退出了建立在中國和其他新興市場增長基礎(chǔ)上的各類交易。新興國家占世界總?cè)丝诘?5%。

此外,新興市場在全球GDP中的占比超過50%,自2008年經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來,新興市場一直是全球增長的主力,但隨著美聯(lián)儲收緊貨幣政策,以及中國經(jīng)濟(jì)模式的局限性日益明顯,資本紛紛逃離這些國家。中國僅2015年12月份流出的注冊資本便超過1000億美元。

一夜之間,原油期貨價格跌至了13年以來的新低——每桶29.72美元。在美國東部時間1月15日6點,原油期貨價格上漲了近1美元,達(dá)到30.73美元。

目前遭到美元重創(chuàng)的首選貨幣是新西蘭元,新西蘭元大幅貶值1.5%。新西蘭元和新西蘭的經(jīng)濟(jì),已經(jīng)成為代表中國農(nóng)業(yè)大宗商品需求的金融市場指標(biāo),而澳元則被視為是中國工業(yè)大宗商品的指標(biāo)。

美元兌離岸人民幣(中國人民銀行難以嚴(yán)格控制離岸人民幣匯率)再次上漲,這代表了對人民幣的新一輪投機(jī)。此外,美元兌南非(另外一個大宗商品指標(biāo))、印尼(更早降低利率,并遭到了恐怖襲擊)、土耳其(更多恐怖襲擊和政治穩(wěn)定性)和英國(對英國退出歐盟的擔(dān)憂)等國貨幣的匯率也有所上漲。

簡而言之,投資者正在避開所有蘊含風(fēng)險的領(lǐng)域,只有貿(mào)易商在苦苦支撐,希望價格不要下降到觸發(fā)大規(guī)模期權(quán)持倉的水平。

當(dāng)然,并非一夜之間便全是壞消息。根據(jù)初步估算,作為歐元區(qū)的發(fā)動機(jī),德國經(jīng)濟(jì)在2015年增長了1.5%。英國奢飾品集團(tuán)巴寶莉公司(Burberry Plc)在宣布其中國銷售額重新開始增長之后,公司股票應(yīng)聲上漲4%(但在市場獲悉其香港銷售遭遇重創(chuàng)之后,股票再次下跌)。英國最大的食品零售商樂購(Tesco Plc)也宣稱,節(jié)日季的業(yè)績遠(yuǎn)高于預(yù)期,使公司股票上漲了4.2%。

但壞消息是,11月份,作為亞洲商業(yè)投資風(fēng)向標(biāo)的日本機(jī)械訂單,年內(nèi)下降了25.8%(抵消了日元的熱度,通常在類似情形下,日元被視為避險貨幣。)

法國汽車制造商雷諾(Renault)更令市場形勢雪上加霜。據(jù)法新社報道,雷諾汽車辦公室遭到突擊檢查,與法國調(diào)查其部分汽車排放超標(biāo)有關(guān),導(dǎo)致公司股票暴跌20%。目前,雷諾尚未就此報道發(fā)表意見。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

World stock markets are getting pummeled again Thursday, following the sharp losses on Wall Street on Wednesday caused by growing fears for the global economy.

The usual proxies for global growth–oil and other commodities, emerging market currencies, energy and mining stocks–are almost all sharply lower as investors bail out of any kind of trade predicated on growth in China and the rest of the emerging world, which accounts for 85% of the world’s population.

Emerging markets also account for over 50% of world GDP, and have been responsible for the lion’s share of global growth ever since the 2008 financial crisis, but capital has flooded out of them as the Federal Reserve has tightened its monetary policy and the limits of China’s economic model have become apparent. China alone registered capital outflows of over $100 billion in December.

Overnight, crude oil futures had fallen to a new 13-year low of $29.72 a barrel, although by 0600 ET they had recovered by nearly $1 to stand at $30.73.

Today’s currency of choice for a good kicking by the U.S. dollar is its New Zealand counterpart, which has fallen by a clunking 1.5%. New Zealand’s currency, and its economy, has become a proxy in financial markets for Chinese demand for agricultural commodities, the same way as Australia’s dollar has become a proxy for Chinese industrial commodity demand.

The dollar has also made fresh advances against the offshore Chinese yuan (the rate that isn’t as tightly controlled by the People’s Bank of China), indicating a fresh wave of speculation against the Chinese currency. And the dollar is also up against currencies from South Africa (another commodity proxy) to Indonesia (which cut interest rates earlier and suffered a terror attack), Turkey (more terror attacks and political instability) and the U.K. (fears over it exiting the European Union).

In short, anything that smells of risk of any sort is being shunned, with much of the only support coming from traders desperately trying to keep prices away from levels where big options positions will be triggered.

The actual news has not been all bad overnight. Germany’s economy, the engine of the eurozone’s, grew by a respectable 1.5% in 2015, according to preliminary estimates. U.K. luxury group Burberry Plc’s BURBY 3.37% shares leapt 4% after it said that Chinese sales had started growing again (although they fell back after the market digested that its Hong Kong sales had taken a pounding). And Tesco Plc TSCDY 8.20% , the U.K.’s largest food retailer, also announced much stronger-than-expected figures for the holiday season, lifting its stock by 4.2%.

But on the debit side, Japan’s machinery orders fell, a rough proxy for Asian business investment, fell by 25.8% on the year in November (offsetting any enthusiasm for the Japanese yen, which is normally in demand as a safe haven on days like this.)

And more shade was cast by French carmaker Renault RNSDF -7.33% , whose shares plummeted 20% after the news agency AFP reported that its offices had been raided in connection with a French probe into excess emissions by some of its vehicles. Renault hasn’t commented on the report yet.

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