成人小说亚洲一区二区三区,亚洲国产精品一区二区三区,国产精品成人精品久久久,久久综合一区二区三区,精品无码av一区二区,国产一级a毛一级a看免费视频,欧洲uv免费在线区一二区,亚洲国产欧美中日韩成人综合视频,国产熟女一区二区三区五月婷小说,亚洲一区波多野结衣在线

立即打開(kāi)
巴菲特致股東信中隱藏的絕佳投資建議

巴菲特致股東信中隱藏的絕佳投資建議

Joshua Brown 2016-03-08
需要遵循四條原則:第一,必須了解所有可能出現(xiàn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn);第二,必須評(píng)估所有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)帶來(lái)?yè)p失的幾率以及由此產(chǎn)生的成本;第三,扣除潛在損失成本和經(jīng)營(yíng)費(fèi)用后,必須能產(chǎn)生利潤(rùn);第四,如果利潤(rùn)無(wú)法達(dá)到適當(dāng)水平,必須敢于放棄這筆生意。

上周末,沃倫?巴菲特公布了致伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司股東的年度信件。和過(guò)去一樣,這封信妙語(yǔ)連珠,令人難忘,巴菲特也在其中點(diǎn)評(píng)了美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)狀。但大多數(shù)人似乎都沒(méi)有發(fā)現(xiàn),這位奧馬哈先知還在今年的信中提出了一些投資建議,而且堪稱(chēng)他曾寫(xiě)下的最佳建議。

這可能是因?yàn)檫@些建議沒(méi)有出現(xiàn)在探討投資或股市的章節(jié),而是放在了和保險(xiǎn)相關(guān)的部分。在詳細(xì)介紹伯克希爾旗下通用再保險(xiǎn)公司的業(yè)績(jī)時(shí),巴菲特用一段有意思的文字提出了保險(xiǎn)公司必須遵循的四條原則。他寫(xiě)道:

說(shuō)到底,情況良好的保險(xiǎn)公司需要遵循四條原則:第一,它必須了解所有可能讓保單出現(xiàn)損失的風(fēng)險(xiǎn);第二,它必須保守地評(píng)估所有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)真正帶來(lái)?yè)p失的幾率以及可能由此產(chǎn)生的成本;第三,扣除潛在損失成本和經(jīng)營(yíng)費(fèi)用后,它設(shè)定的保費(fèi)平均而言必須能產(chǎn)生利潤(rùn);第四,如果保費(fèi)無(wú)法達(dá)到適當(dāng)水平,它必須愿意放棄這筆生意。

這段話(huà)讓我想到了投資管理(老實(shí)說(shuō),它差不多占據(jù)了我的全部思緒)。保險(xiǎn)和投資的相似度幾乎達(dá)到100%,這一發(fā)現(xiàn)讓我深受感觸。畢竟,除了作為今后開(kāi)支和需求的保障,投資還能是什么呢?

現(xiàn)在就讓我們逐一探討這四大原則:

原則1:了解所有可能讓保單出現(xiàn)損失的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

首先,讓我們從長(zhǎng)期投資者的角度來(lái)定義一下“損失”。它是指永久失去一定數(shù)量資金的可能性。債券或股票都可能帶來(lái)?yè)p失。在某些情況下,共同基金也是如此。就連指數(shù)基金也可能造成損失,條件是它追蹤的指數(shù)再也回不到之前的高點(diǎn)。

相反,多元化投資幾乎永遠(yuǎn)也不會(huì)帶來(lái)永久性損失,除非持有人的某些行為導(dǎo)致這種結(jié)果。如果在市場(chǎng)底部拋售各類(lèi)資產(chǎn),或者在市場(chǎng)中某個(gè)不明朗的領(lǐng)域投入過(guò)多,投資者的資金絕對(duì)會(huì)一去不復(fù)返。

據(jù)我所知,防止發(fā)生這種情況的唯一途徑就是多元化并進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)性再平衡。多元化投資不能避免階段性損失,但這樣的損失更有可能是縮水,而不是永久性虧損。對(duì)一位把全部資金投入本國(guó)股市的日本投資者來(lái)說(shuō),相對(duì)于25年前日經(jīng)指數(shù)的高點(diǎn),他的投資仍處于縮水狀態(tài)。如果他進(jìn)行全球性配置,多元化投資可能早就幫他挽回了損失,眼下的投資表現(xiàn)可能也會(huì)好得多。

原則2:保守地評(píng)估所有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)真正帶來(lái)?yè)p失的幾率以及可能由此產(chǎn)生的成本。

在不利情況或市場(chǎng)動(dòng)向的影響下,你可能損失多少?出現(xiàn)大幅縮水的幾率有多高?情況會(huì)變得有多差?在既定回報(bào)率下,你愿意承擔(dān)多少市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?通過(guò)了解以往各類(lèi)資產(chǎn)下跌的可能性,投資者就應(yīng)該知道如何構(gòu)建自己的投資。人們常說(shuō),只要能看到自己的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),上升潛力自然就會(huì)浮現(xiàn)。

原則3:扣除潛在損失成本和經(jīng)營(yíng)費(fèi)用后,設(shè)定的保費(fèi)平均而言必須能產(chǎn)生利潤(rùn)。

這一點(diǎn)怎么強(qiáng)調(diào)都不過(guò)分。有些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能帶來(lái)收益,但有些收益并不值得投資者去冒險(xiǎn)。

集中投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)絕對(duì)屬于后一種。將大筆資金投入少量投資對(duì)象確實(shí)是生財(cái)之道,但這只能是后見(jiàn)之明。對(duì)大部分人來(lái)說(shuō)這種做法都行不通,但大家很少聽(tīng)說(shuō)這樣的事。我們聽(tīng)到的許多事例都是過(guò)去時(shí),而且內(nèi)容都是所謂的聰明人把資金集中在某個(gè)方面,然后大賺了一筆。

不同的資產(chǎn)類(lèi)別有不同的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和回報(bào)幾率。股票的長(zhǎng)期回報(bào)最高,但和投資級(jí)固定收益資產(chǎn)的持有者相比,持股者經(jīng)歷的考驗(yàn)必定更多。舉例來(lái)說(shuō),就整個(gè)投資行為而言,關(guān)鍵就是在潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承受度和未來(lái)收益需求度之間求得平衡。按照這樣的思路,你的“經(jīng)營(yíng)費(fèi)用”就是退休后的負(fù)債,如果你在為子女教育存錢(qián),這些費(fèi)用就會(huì)出現(xiàn)的更快。在各種各樣的行情下,你都能承擔(dān)這些費(fèi)用嗎?如果你自己回答不了這個(gè)問(wèn)題,那就跟金融規(guī)劃師談?wù)劇?/p>

原則4:如果保費(fèi)無(wú)法達(dá)到適當(dāng)水平,必須愿意放棄這筆生意。

某些情況下,投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)會(huì)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)承擔(dān)這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)而應(yīng)得到的“保費(fèi)”,也就是回報(bào)。最近的一個(gè)例子是,許多投資者都放棄了通常會(huì)購(gòu)買(mǎi)的債券,轉(zhuǎn)而投資于業(yè)主有限合伙制公司。為獲得7%的股息收益率,投資者對(duì)這些公司趨之若鶩。但隨著油價(jià)下跌,這些公司的股價(jià)在過(guò)去一年中平均下降了40%,由此產(chǎn)生的損失相當(dāng)于這些投資者六年的股息收入。

那些為提高當(dāng)前收益而承擔(dān)垃圾債券信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的投資者最近也得到了類(lèi)似的教訓(xùn)。在某個(gè)時(shí)刻,用高收益必需消費(fèi)品股和債券建倉(cāng),或者承擔(dān)著長(zhǎng)期美國(guó)國(guó)債利率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的投資者也會(huì)面臨投資縮水局面。參與掉期交易或者購(gòu)買(mǎi)了金融機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)行的債務(wù)抵押證券,從而承擔(dān)了對(duì)手方風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的投資者也是如此。

結(jié)論:華爾街沒(méi)有免費(fèi)午餐,幾乎每種資產(chǎn)都有獨(dú)特的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。不過(guò),為了今后的回報(bào)而承擔(dān)眼下的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并沒(méi)有錯(cuò),只是要確保自己在這個(gè)過(guò)程中獲得足夠的潛在回報(bào)。沃倫?巴菲特顯然做到了這一點(diǎn)。而且,他得到的回報(bào)一直都沒(méi)有這么低。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Charlie

校對(duì):詹妮

This weekend, Warren Buffett released his annualletter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. As always, it was full of memorable quips and the Oracle’s take on where the US economy currently stands. But what most people seem to have missed is that this year’s Berkshire BRK.A 0.00% letter also contained some of the best investment advice the Oracle of Omaha has ever written down. That’s perhaps because it was in a portion not devoted to investing or the stock market, but insurance. In the section of the letter detailing the results of Berkshire’s General Re subsidiary, there was an interesting tidbit on the four disciplines that must be adhered to in the insurance business. Buffett wrote:

At bottom, a sound insurance operation needs to adhere to four disciplines. It must (1) understand all exposures that might cause a policy to incur losses; (2) conservatively assess the likelihood of any exposure actually causing a loss and the probable cost if it does; (3) set a premium that, on average, will deliver a profit after both prospective loss costs and operating expenses are covered; and (4) be willing to walk away if the appropriate premium can’t be obtained.

This got me thinking about portfolio management (which is pretty much all I ever think about, let’s be honest) and it struck me that the parallels between insurance and investing were pretty perfect. What else, after all, does a portfolio represent but insurance for the expenses and needs of the future?

Let’s take these four disciplines one by one:

Understand all exposures that might cause a policy to incur losses.

First, let’s define “l(fā)osses” from the standpoint of a long-term investor: It’s the possibility of having a quantity of money permanently go away. This can happen in a bond or an individual stock. In some cases, it can happen in a mutual fund. It can even happen in an index fund if it tracks an index that makes a high it never returns to.

But a diversified portfolio will almost never incur a permanent loss other than due to the behavior of the investor holding it. By selling asset classes at a market bottom or wagering too heavily in an obscure area of the market, investors can absolutely cause themselves permanent losses.

The only way to guard against this outcome that I am aware of is diversification and systematic rebalancing. A diversified portfolio cannot avoid periods of loss, but these periodic declines are more likely to be drawdowns as opposed to permanent losses. A Japanese investor with a 100% domestic stock portfolio invested in the Nikkei could still be in drawdown from the market’s peak 25 years ago. That same investor with a globally allocated, diversified portfolio would have recouped his losses long ago and would be doing much better today.

Conservatively assess the likelihood of any exposure actually causing a loss and the probable cost if it does.

What is your potential downside should adverse events or market activity hit your portfolio? What is the probability of heavy drawdowns? How bad could it get? How much risk are you willing to endure—in the form of volatility—for a given return? Having an idea of the historical probabilities of asset class declines should inform the way a portfolio is structured. It is said that by seeing to your risks, you can let the potential upside take care of itself.

Set a premium that, on average, will deliver a profit after both prospective loss costs and operatingexpenses are covered.

This cannot be emphasized enough—there are risks that pay and risks that do not pay enough to justify taking them.

Concentrated portfolio risk falls firmly into the latter camp. Betting heavily on a small amount of investments is how fortunes are made, but only in hindsight. It doesn’t work out well for the majority of people, but you rarely hear about them. You will hear a lot, always after the fact, about the supposedly brilliant people who made concentrated bets and hit the lottery.

Different asset classes have different risk and return probabilities. Equities return the most over time, but their holders have to go through more duress than investment grade fixed income, for example. Balancing your tolerance for potential losses against your need for future gains is the key to the whole endeavor. In this analogy, your “operating expenses” would be the future liabilities you’ll have in retirement or even sooner if you’re saving for your children’s’ education. Will these operating expenses be covered under a variety of potential market outcomes? Talk to a financial planner if you can’t answer this question on your own.

Be willing to walk away if the appropriate premium can’t be obtained

Some investments offer a lot more risk than what you’d deserve to earn in “premium,” i.e. returns, for your trouble. A recent example would be the MLPs that many investors had been holding in place of where they’d traditionally be buying bonds. For a 7% pass-through dividend yield, investors piled into MLPs. But as oil prices have dropped, the MLPs have on average dropped 40% in the past year, a lost equivalent to six years worth of the dividend income they were chasing.

Investors increasing their current yield by taking credit risk in junk bonds have recently learned a similar lesson. At some point, investors who are conflating high-yielding consumer staples stocks with bonds or who are taking interest rate risk in long-dated Treasurys will see drawdowns as well. So will investors taking counter-party risk via swaps and collateralized debt securities issued by a financial institution.

Bottom line: There’s no free lunch on Wall Street and just about every asset class carries its own form of idiosyncratic risk. Still, there’s nothing wrong with taking risk today in order to earn future rewards. Just make sure you’re being paid for taking it in the form of an adequate potential return. Warren Buffett clearly does. And his returns haven’t been all that bad.

?愛妃?国产一区二区三区视频精品| 欧美成人精品色午夜免费观看| 亚洲精品无码永久在线观看| 一本大道无码日韩精品影视| 99福利资源久久福利资源| 国产办公室免费视频观看| 亚洲成AV人综合在线观看| 又黄又无遮挡又湿的视频网站| 两根大肉大捧一进一出好爽视频| 蜜臀AV无码国产精品色午夜麻豆| 亚洲中文字幕精品久久久久久直播| 亚洲欧洲日韩综合在线| 久久久久狠狠高潮亚洲精品| 午夜A理论片在线播放| 毛片黄色人人艹电影在线观看| 亚洲无码专区免费在线观看| 久久久久女人精品毛片九一| 无码国产精成人午夜视频不卡| 久久综合中文字幕一区二区三区| 凹凸国产熟女精品视频| 精品人人妻人人澡人人爽牛牛| 亚洲无码专区免费在线观看| 人妻激情另类乱人伦人妻| 秋霞鲁丝片Av无码少妇| 午夜香吻免费观看视频在线播放| 国产精品一区二区美女视频| 婷婷五月情亚洲电影网站在在线播放| 国产精品日本一区二区在线播放| 国产成人午夜精品一区二区三区| 天下第一社区在线观看视频| 国产成人精品久久一区二区三区av| 久久久久精品久久久久影院蜜桃| 狠狠躁夜夜躁人人爽天天古典| 伊人无码精品久久一区二区| 我要看一级大黄毛片| 国产色无码精品视频国产| 农村穷山沟女人乱弄视频| 久久久精品波多野结衣?v| 国产性猛交╳XXX乱大交| 国产免费高清视频在线观看不卡| 久久久久久亚洲av无码专区|