良藥苦口、忠言逆耳。明智的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者會(huì)聽(tīng)取不同的意見(jiàn)。跟往常一樣，只要去找，現(xiàn)在就能發(fā)現(xiàn)這樣的聲音和新聞。

在2006和2007年的美好時(shí)光里，基金經(jīng)理杰里米?格蘭瑟姆、紐約大學(xué)教授魯里埃爾?魯比尼（人稱(chēng)“末日博士”）和耶魯大學(xué)教授羅伯特?希勒的警告幾乎沒(méi)人愿意去聽(tīng)，但他們都正確預(yù)見(jiàn)了隨后的蕭條。他們那些不受歡迎的觀點(diǎn)之所以值得一聽(tīng)，是因?yàn)檫@么多年來(lái)的情況已經(jīng)證明，三人對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和市場(chǎng)都有敏銳的判斷。

以下四種觀點(diǎn)也是這樣，無(wú)論喜歡與否，我們都應(yīng)該聽(tīng)聽(tīng)這些專(zhuān)家的話：

Wise leaders seek out voices they don’t agree with and news they don’t like. Right now, as always, such voices and news are out there if we look. When the good times were rolling in 2006 and 2007, few people wanted to hear the warnings of fund manager Jeremy Grantham or New York University professor Nouriel Roubini (known then as Dr. Doom) or Yale professor Robert Shiller. But they were right about the coming bust, and their unpopular views deserved a hearing because all three had proven themselves over many years to be sharp judges of economies and markets. Here are four such voices now, responsible experts whose views we should hear, like them or not:

吉姆?羅杰斯

吉姆?羅杰斯預(yù)測(cè)今后12個(gè)月美國(guó)陷入衰退的可能性是100%。

羅杰斯最出名的莫過(guò)于20年前預(yù)言了大宗商品和新興市場(chǎng)的繁榮并加以炒作。他也一直是喬治?索羅斯的合作伙伴。

羅杰斯認(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正在掉鏈子。他指出，本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)已經(jīng)延續(xù)近七年，雖然低增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)依然相當(dāng)穩(wěn)定，但工資稅繳稅額也一直沒(méi)變。羅杰斯還表示，中國(guó)、日本和歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)不是低迷就是放緩，這加重了下行壓力。大家覺(jué)得目前美元已經(jīng)很強(qiáng)了？而羅杰斯還在做多美元，因?yàn)樗A(yù)計(jì)全球各個(gè)市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)滑坡時(shí)資金將流向安全的資產(chǎn)。

Jim Rogers

-Jim Rogers says the probability of a U.S. recession in the coming 12 months is 100%. He’s best known for calling – and betting on – the booms in commodities and emerging markets 20 years ago; he has also been a partner of George Soros. Now he argues that the wheels are coming off the U.S. economy – he cites flat payroll tax numbers – despite its fairly steady but slow growth, as the current expansion nears seven years in length. Weak or slowing economies in China, Japan, and Europe increase the downward pressure, he told Bloomberg. You think the dollar is strong now? He’s long dollars because he foresees a flight to safety as markets weaken globally.

比爾?格羅斯

“債券之王”比爾?格羅斯也持類(lèi)似的悲觀態(tài)度，只是原因不同。格羅斯在最新的展望信函中指出，問(wèn)題在于各家央行實(shí)施的負(fù)利率政策，這種為刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)而不惜代價(jià)的做法實(shí)在過(guò)火。

雖然低利率一般都可以通過(guò)財(cái)富效應(yīng)提升資產(chǎn)價(jià)值和經(jīng)濟(jì)活力，但格羅斯認(rèn)為，負(fù)利率政策弊大于利。它對(duì)銀行的商業(yè)模式產(chǎn)生了極為不利的影響，給養(yǎng)老基金帶來(lái)了威脅，而且有損于“所有儲(chǔ)蓄者，有損于世界上所有為了高等教育、退休和醫(yī)療而存錢(qián)的家庭?！?/p>

從格羅斯的預(yù)期中似乎看不到希望：“央行的降息意愿似乎超過(guò)以往，在我看來(lái)，他們并未注意到此舉對(duì)典型經(jīng)濟(jì)模式的損害，而后者一直是經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮的動(dòng)力所在。這種情況會(huì)一直延續(xù)到央行走進(jìn)‘負(fù)利率’死胡同，再也無(wú)法驅(qū)動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)前行?！?/p>

Bill Gross

-Similarly bearish for other reasons is Bond King Bill Gross. The problem, he says in his latest outlook letter, is that central bankers’ desperate attempts to stimulate their economies have gone too far by imposing negative interest rates. While low rates generally pump up asset values and energize economic activity through the wealth effect, he argues that negative rates do more damage than good. They clobber banks’ business models, endanger pension funds, and harm “all savers; households worldwide that saved/invested money for college, retirement or for medical bills.” He doesn’t offer hope: “Central bankers seem ever intent on going lower, ignorant in my view of the harm being done to a classical economic model that has driven prosperity – until it reached a negative interest rate dead end and could drive no more.”

維克拉姆?曼沙拉馬尼

耶魯大學(xué)教授維克拉姆?曼沙拉馬尼有著深刻見(jiàn)解。他認(rèn)為“各個(gè)領(lǐng)域的泡沫都在破裂”，而且這種趨勢(shì)尚未接近尾聲。

曼沙拉馬尼有一部出色的作品，名為《盛衰學(xué)》，他一直在關(guān)注這方面的情況。在阿布扎比出席全球金融市場(chǎng)論壇之際，曼沙拉馬尼對(duì)CNBC表示，他發(fā)現(xiàn)“泡沫正在破裂，我得說(shuō)，澳大利亞房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的泡沫就要破了，南非則是整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)，加拿大是房地產(chǎn)加經(jīng)濟(jì)，還有巴西。我們可以一直這樣羅列下去?！?/p>

吹大這些泡沫的是超寬松貨幣政策，讓格羅斯感到不安的也是這些政策，經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫的破裂則加劇了全球性通縮。就經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)而言，這種情況絕非好事。

Vikram Mansharamani

-Yale’s insightful Vikram Mansharamani sees “bubbles bursting everywhere” and does not see the trend stopping. The author of an excellent book called Boombustology, he keeps an eye on these things. At the Global Financial Markets Forum in Abu Dhabi, he told CNBC he sees “a bubble bursting, I would argue, in Australian housing markets — that is beginning to crack; South Africa — the whole economy; Canada — housing and the economy; Brazil. We can keep going on and on.” The bubbles were inflated by the super-easy monetary policies that trouble Gross, and the bubbles’ bursting is contributing to deflation worldwide. Not a promising scenario for economic growth.

馬克?赫伯特

股市專(zhuān)家馬克?赫伯特在3月8日發(fā)表的評(píng)論中提醒人們，3月7日是本輪牛市七周年“紀(jì)念日”。他的觀點(diǎn)很簡(jiǎn)單：“今后七年股市的回報(bào)水平絕不會(huì)像過(guò)去七年那么高?！?/p>

赫伯特的看法更冷靜一些。他認(rèn)為，就算美國(guó)股市的增速能超過(guò)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速，它也會(huì)遇到困難。公司利潤(rùn)已經(jīng)達(dá)到不尋常的高點(diǎn)，股票估值遠(yuǎn)高于平均水平，二者都不太可能繼續(xù)大幅增長(zhǎng)。

不得不說(shuō)，你很難對(duì)他的觀點(diǎn)提出異議。

我覺(jué)得類(lèi)似這樣的觀察者都是負(fù)責(zé)任的現(xiàn)實(shí)主義者。我們沒(méi)辦法確定他們有多么正確，或者有多少謬誤，但經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明，我們最好考慮一下如果他們是對(duì)的，我們?cè)撛趺崔k。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

校對(duì)：詹妮

Mark Hulbert

-Stock market maven Mark Hulbert reminded us in a commentary on Tuesday that Monday marked the seventh anniversary of the current bull market’s start. His simple point: “There’s no way the stock market over the next seven years will produce a return anywhere as good as the last seven.” His more sobering point is that U.S. stocks will have a hard time even outpacing the growth of the economy. Corporate profits are already unusually high, and multiples are well above average; neither measure is likely to increase much further. His argument is hard to refute.

I think of these four observers and others like them as responsible realists. We can’t know how right or wrong they are, but experience says we had better think about what we’ll do if they’re right.