隨著今年2月中國(guó)股市跌至四年半以來(lái)低點(diǎn)，海外資金正謹(jǐn)慎地向中資股票回流。趁著當(dāng)前估值較低，海外資金挑選了一些中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)向消費(fèi)驅(qū)動(dòng)轉(zhuǎn)型的概念股。

外國(guó)投資者試探性地進(jìn)入的板塊都與3月初公布的十三五規(guī)劃各項(xiàng)主題有關(guān)，包括城鎮(zhèn)化、消費(fèi)、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)增長(zhǎng)、綠色發(fā)展和創(chuàng)新。

2月12日以來(lái)，MSCI中國(guó)指數(shù)已上漲17%?；鹱粉櫃C(jī)構(gòu)EPFR Global的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，雖然外國(guó)投資者仍在凈賣出中國(guó)公司股票，但凈拋售規(guī)模已從此前4個(gè)月的平均每月賣出21億美元減至3月1日至25日的2.72億美元。

許多投資者都集中關(guān)注特定的“新經(jīng)濟(jì)”行業(yè)，避開(kāi)“舊經(jīng)濟(jì)”板塊，雖然“新經(jīng)濟(jì)”相關(guān)概念股只占中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的一小部分。

日興資產(chǎn)管理有限公司駐新加坡高級(jí)證券投資經(jīng)理Tan Eng Teck指出：“中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)向消費(fèi)和服務(wù)驅(qū)動(dòng)的增長(zhǎng)模式轉(zhuǎn)變過(guò)程可能會(huì)有些痛苦，其中股市遭受的打擊格外嚴(yán)重，因?yàn)?0-80%的上市公司都高度依賴基建和投資驅(qū)動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式?！?/p>

“不過(guò)，另外那20-30%的上市公司正在成長(zhǎng)，我們看好這些板塊，因?yàn)榭梢员３侄嗄暝鲩L(zhǎng)?！?/p>

中國(guó)政府的十三五規(guī)劃目標(biāo)是，到2020年新增至少1千萬(wàn)個(gè)城鎮(zhèn)就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，研發(fā)投資占GDP的比重達(dá)到2.5%，開(kāi)發(fā)替代能源并減少碳排放，以及提高互聯(lián)網(wǎng)普及率。

Tan看好的板塊包括旅游、保險(xiǎn)、環(huán)境和醫(yī)療保健。日興的中國(guó)股票基金和Shenton Greater China Fund持倉(cāng)最多的中國(guó)股票有中國(guó)平安、騰訊控股和中國(guó)中藥。

英國(guó)投資機(jī)構(gòu)M&G Investments駐倫敦的全球新興市場(chǎng)證券投資經(jīng)理馬修?維特說(shuō)：“M&G Investments把互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)主題合二為一，最近買入的股票包括一家在美國(guó)上市的在線旅行社。”

M&G Investments全球新興市場(chǎng)基金持有的前十大個(gè)股包括百度和中國(guó)移動(dòng)。

不過(guò)，維特?fù)?dān)心有些“新經(jīng)濟(jì)”個(gè)股估值過(guò)高。他認(rèn)為，價(jià)值型投資者的機(jī)會(huì)在“相對(duì)乏味但被低估的領(lǐng)域”，比如部分包裝和塑料管廠商。

在他看來(lái)，銀行和大宗商品板塊存在價(jià)值陷阱。維特警告說(shuō)，許多陷入困境的“舊經(jīng)濟(jì)”公司其實(shí)應(yīng)該破產(chǎn)，銀行卻還在向這些公司輸血。

Tan則擔(dān)心，鋼鐵和鋁等大宗商品板塊雖然估值已經(jīng)非常低，但由于產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩，相關(guān)個(gè)股的價(jià)格可能進(jìn)一步下跌。

霸菱資產(chǎn)管理亞太區(qū)投資總監(jiān)方偉昌上個(gè)月在一份報(bào)告中寫道，霸菱也看好“中國(guó)公司在價(jià)值鏈體系上升過(guò)程中受益于消費(fèi)崛起和配套科技需求增加的個(gè)股?！?/p>

方偉昌舉例說(shuō)，霸菱投資了一家向香港、深圳和東莞供水的公用事業(yè)公司，就是因?yàn)榭春弥袊?guó)人口進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)和環(huán)保標(biāo)準(zhǔn)提升。

霸菱還看好中國(guó)娛樂(lè)公司，預(yù)期中國(guó)的電影觀眾和國(guó)產(chǎn)電影數(shù)量都將上升。

方偉昌說(shuō)：“近幾周股價(jià)波動(dòng)相當(dāng)劇烈，我們也借此機(jī)會(huì)重新評(píng)估了此前看好但認(rèn)為股價(jià)過(guò)高的公司?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Global funds are cautiously venturing back into Chinese equities after prices collapsed to 4-1/2-year lows in February, taking advantage of cheaper valuations to buy stocks they believe will benefit from China’s shift to a consumption-led economy.

Foreign investors are tentatively buying in sectors linked to the main themes of the 13th Five-Year Plan released earlier this month, including urbanization, consumption, internet growth, green development and innovation.

The MSCI China index has gained 17% since Feb. 12 and while foreign investors are still net sellers the scale of net selling has shrunk to $272 million from March 1 to March 25 versus an average of $2.1 billion over the previous four months, according to EPFR Global data.

Most investors are focusing on specific “new economy” industries, which make up only a small proportion of the market, while avoiding those sectors linked to the “old economy.”

“China’s transition to a consumption and service-led economy is likely to be a bit painful, and it’s worse for the stock market because 70-80 percent of the market is highly dependent on the infrastructure and investment-led economy,” said Tan Eng Teck, senior portfolio manager at Nikko Asset Management in Singapore.

“But the remaining 20-30% is growing, and we like those sectors because they’re in a multi-year growth phase.”

Beijing’s five-year plan aims to create at least 10 million urban jobs, boost research and development investment to 2.5% of gross domestic product by 2020, develop alternative energy sources and reduce emissions, and expand internet penetration.

Tan’s prefered sectors include tourism, insurance, environment and healthcare. Among the biggest holdings in Nikko’s China equity fund and Shenton Greater China Fund are Ping An Insurance, internet firm Tencent and China Traditional Chinese Medicine Co..

M&G Investments combines the internet and consumption growth themes, with recent purchases including an online travel agency listed in the U.S., said Matthew Vaight, M&G portfolio manager for global emerging markets in London.

Internet firm Baidu and mobile operator China Unicom are among the top 10 holdings of M&G’s Global Emerging Markets fund.

However, Vaight cautions that some “new economy” stocks are overvalued, and sees opportunities for value investors in “relatively dull but under-appreciated areas of the market,” such as some packaging and plastic pipe companies.

Banks and commodity sectors are seen as value traps. Vaight warns that banks are keeping many struggling “old economy” companies going when they should not.

Tan cautions overcapacity in commodities sectors such as steel and aluminum means that prices, despite very low valuations, could yet fall further.

Barings Asset Management also favors “beneficiaries of rising consumption and technological outfitting as Chinese companies move up the value chain,” investment director William Fong said in a note last month.

For instance, Barings is investing in China’s population expansion and improving environmental standards through a utility company that supplies water to Hong Kong, Shenzen and Dongguan, he said.

Barings also likes Chinese entertainment companies, betting on increases in both the number of cinemagoers and locally produced films.

“With share price valuations having moved quite sharply in recent weeks, we have taken the opportunity to reassess companies we previously liked but where we felt the price was too high,” said Fong.