隨著2016年步入尾聲，對于新一年的市場預(yù)測紛紛浮出水面。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）關(guān)于投資的最新報告對某個國家的股票十分看好——而美國則會為此蒙受損失。

這家投資銀行的跨資產(chǎn)戰(zhàn)略部門的分析師在周日的一份報告中寫道：“日本會成為我們的頂級市場?！睋?jù)彭博社報道，日本市場將在2017年擁有“吸引人的長期估值”和“一些周期性的優(yōu)勢”，預(yù)計盈利也會出現(xiàn)正增長。

摩根士丹利看好日本前景，部分原因在于該國出現(xiàn)了強于預(yù)期的經(jīng)濟增長，同時日元也在持續(xù)走弱。彭博社報道稱，其原因在于唐納德?特朗普贏得大選后美聯(lián)儲（Federal Reserve）可能上調(diào)利率，導(dǎo)致美元走強。據(jù)CNBC報道，報告補充稱，日本公司，尤其是那些有大量收入來自海外的公司，盈利將會因此出現(xiàn)激增。

不過新一年對日本的看好，將會帶來美國的損失。因為摩根士丹利推薦賣掉美國的股票，減少在新興市場以及美國的投資。

摩根士丹利的首席跨資產(chǎn)分析師安德魯?希茲在接受彭博社采訪時表示“明年很可能會看到由日本和歐洲來引領(lǐng)全球業(yè)績復(fù)蘇”，因為特朗普政府任何可能的企業(yè)稅率調(diào)整和政府支出“在2018年以前都不太能產(chǎn)生足夠的影響”。

路透社報道稱，盡管不被看好，但日本經(jīng)濟在今年7月至9月同比增長了2.2%。這是日本連續(xù)第三個季度出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟增長，其他銀行的分析師也紛紛看好日本市場在新年的盈利前景

CNBC報道指出，與此同時，摩根大通嘉誠（JPMorgan Cazenove）在周一發(fā)布的文件表示，日本企業(yè)的盈利情況會因為日元走弱而獲益。該銀行稱，科技和能源領(lǐng)域?qū)⒁驗樨泿诺钠＼洿蟀l(fā)橫財，而公共事業(yè)和醫(yī)療保健領(lǐng)域則會因此虧損。 （財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

As the end of 2016 is finally nigh, market predictions for the new year begin to roll in. The latest report from Morgan Stanley on where best to invest in 2017 is bullish on equities in one particular country — at the expense of the U.S.

“Japan becomes our top market,” analysts from the investment bank’s cross-assets strategy unit wrote in a report Sunday. According to Bloomberg, the report suggests that the Japanese market in 2017 would come “with attractive long-run valuations” and “some cyclical strength” as well as prospects for positive earnings growth.

The bank’s positive outlook for Japan comes in part from the country’s stronger-than-expected economic growth and the continued weakening of the Japanese yen. Bloomberg reports that this is as a result the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, following the perception of an increased likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike after the election of Donald Trump. The report added that earnings of Japanese companies — particularly those with significant overseas income — would be boosted as a result, according to CNBC.

The optimism for Japan in the new year comes at the expense of the U.S., though, as Morgan Stanley changed tack to recommend selling American equities and reducing exposure to emerging markets alongside the U.S.

Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley’s chief cross-asset analyst, told Bloomberg that “next year is likely to see Japan and Europe lead the global earnings recovery,” as any potential corporate tax changes and government spending under a Trump administration are “unlikely to come through meaningfully until 2018.”

Japan’s economy grew year-on-year by 2.2% between July and September, according to Reuters, despite expectations otherwise. Following its third straight quarter of economic growth, analysts from other banks are also harboring their hopes on Japan for a profitable new year.

Meanwhile, a note from JPMorgan Cazenove, published Monday, suggested that Japanese corporate earnings would benefit from a weakening yen, reports CNBC. According to CNBC, the bank said that tech and energy would be among the sectors reaping the most windfall from the weak currency, while utilities and healthcare would lose out.