蘋果公司在2016年經(jīng)歷了一些坎坷，它的股票雖然總體上漲了9%，但還是略微跑輸大盤。不過明年蘋果的股票有可能再次大漲——至少花旗集團的分析師吉姆·蘇瓦是這樣認為的，而且他還在本周二的一份報告中給出了蘋果股票值得入手的五個理由。

包括蘇瓦在內(nèi)的很多分析人士都指出，蘋果股票當下的第一個有利變量，就是iPhone手機將在明年迎來大改，據(jù)傳下一代iPhone的外觀將徹底重新設(shè)計，并將加入一些極為實用的新功能，比如效果更好的OLED顯示屏和無線充電等配置至少將出現(xiàn)在部分機型上。預(yù)計下一財年（從2017年10月起算），iPhone手機的銷量將比今年提高7%左右。

接下來是特朗普當選帶來的紅利。雖然還沒正式扶正，但特朗普已經(jīng)公開表示，上臺后要對美國企業(yè)及其海外收入進行減稅。據(jù)蘇瓦計算，如果企業(yè)稅能從當前的35%下調(diào)到15%的水平，那么蘋果的每股收益或?qū)⑻岣?%左右。

蘋果公司的國內(nèi)未征稅海外收入的規(guī)模也是冠絕全球的，截止至9月底，該公司約有2160億美元的收入從未被美國政府征稅。特朗普提議將這部分收入的稅率由現(xiàn)行規(guī)定的35%下調(diào)至10%，這樣一來，CEO蒂姆·庫克和蘋果公司就有了更多的資金進行股票回購，以及進一步提高每股收益。

蘇瓦在報告中寫道：“在我們的研究范圍內(nèi)，我們認為蘋果將成為特朗普稅改的顯著受益方。不管特朗普是對海外收入給予稅收優(yōu)惠，還是降低企業(yè)稅，蘋果在可能進行的稅制改革中都將處于非常有利的位置?！?

第三個利好跡象是它的服務(wù)業(yè)務(wù)，即從iTunes的音樂下載、音樂訂閱到iCloud存儲空間在內(nèi)的各種服務(wù)。這些服務(wù)已經(jīng)成為蘋果公司營收增長最快的業(yè)務(wù)之一，近一年來的增幅達到22%。庫克也在幾次季度收益會議上對其服務(wù)業(yè)務(wù)的增長做了濃墨重彩的宣傳。

第四，蘋果仍然有一些市場尚未開發(fā)，而它們很有可能成為蘋果的下一個賺錢機器。比如蒂姆·庫克最近就指出，大中企業(yè)客戶以及印度龐大的智能手機消費市場都是有待開發(fā)的商機。

最后，蘇瓦指出，從蘋果的市場統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)來看，蘋果的市值與同類公司相比仍然處于被低估的狀態(tài)。

不過，雖然包括蘇瓦在內(nèi)的許多分析師都認為，蘋果的“大改周期”將強力推高其股市表現(xiàn)，不過從過去一年多的情況來看，蘋果也面臨著一些復(fù)雜的不利因素。

首先，雖然蘋果一直努力試圖進入印度市場，但它的努力從很大程度上說是失敗的。另外，蘋果的服務(wù)業(yè)務(wù)雖然增長迅猛，但公司的營收入仍主要來自硬件銷售，服務(wù)業(yè)務(wù)的增長幅度仍不足以讓投資者動心。而且從各種指標來看，蘋果的股票交易弱于其他股票的現(xiàn)象已經(jīng)有幾年了，這也是作為全球市值第一的上市公司所必須承受的“痛苦”之一。

盡管蘇瓦給出了以上五大理由，然而一提起今日的蘋果，大家能想起來的還是那家賣iPhone手機的公司。因此要想讓股價再次大漲，蘋果可能還得想辦法再度推高iPhone的銷量才行。 （財富中文網(wǎng)）

作者：Aaron Pressman

譯者：樸成奎

Apple had some stumbles in 2016 and though its stock price has gained 9%, the overall market has done slightly better. But next year could be significant for investors, at least according to Citigroup analyst Jim Suva, who offered five reasons to bet on Apple shares in a report on Tuesday.

The first variable that Suva—among many others—points to is the 2017 iPhone overhaul, which is already rumored to include a full exterior redesign and some genuinely useful new features, like better OLED screens and wireless charging—at least on some models. Apple should sell 7% more ipHones in its next fiscal year, which starts at the beginning of October 2017.

Next comes the Trump bump, as the President-elect has been talking about lowering taxes on corporations overall and on cash U.S. companies have stashed overseas. Cutting the corporate rate to 15% from the current 35% level could boost Apple’s earnings per share (EPS) by 6%, Suva calculates.

Apple is also the king of so-called un-repatriated funds, with $216 billion that have never been taxed by the U.S. government as of the end of September. Trump has talked about imposing a 10% tax on such funds, down from the current 35% rate, which could give CEO Tim Cook and company a lot more money to buy back stock and further bump up earnings per share.

“Across our coverage universe, we see Apple as a significant beneficiary of Trump tax reforms,” Suva writes. “Apple is very well positioned to benefit from potential tax reform of either or both a repatriation tax holiday and or a lower corporate tax rate.”

The third possible boost for Apple’s share price could come from its services businesses, everything from iTunes song downloads and Apple music subscription to iCloud storage space. The services line is one of the fastest growing revenue streams at Apple, up 22% over the past year, and it has gotten more than a bit of hype from Cook on quarterly earnings calls.

Then there are the untapped markets, always seemingly just over the horizon to becoming big money makers. Lately, Cook has focused on large corporate, enterprise customers as well as the massive consumer smartphone market in India as potentially under-exploited opportunities.

Finally, Suva notes that Apple’s market stats look undervalued compared to other, similar companies.

Still, aside from the iPhone “super cycle” that Suva and other analysts are predicting, some drivers have been in the mix for the past year or more.

Apple AAPL 1.67% has been trying and largely failing to break into the India market. Apple has been growing its service business sharply, but the revenue still flows from sales of hardware, a fact which seems to have investors less than thrilled. And Apple has traded at a discount to other stocks by various measures for some years now, one of the penalties of being the most highly valued public company in the world.

Despite Suva’s five reasons, Apple still looks mostly like the iPhone company it has been for years. And to get the stock price booming again, it will probably take another boom in iPhone sales.