據(jù)英國博彩公司立博集團（Ladbrokes）政治博彩業(yè)務(wù)主管馬修?沙迪克介紹，立博網(wǎng)站的最新下注情況表明，彩民們認(rèn)為特朗普堅持不到第一個任期結(jié)束的可能性為60%。而去年11月美國大選剛剛結(jié)束時，這個數(shù)字為25%。

代表必發(fā)（Betfair）博彩網(wǎng)站的李?普萊斯寫道：“實際上幾乎沒有人為特朗普不被彈劾下注——總的下注人數(shù)真的是屈指可數(shù)?！?/p>

與此同時，這幾天“彈劾”一詞越發(fā)引人關(guān)注，原因是對特朗普開除聯(lián)邦調(diào)查局局長詹姆斯?科米是出于何種動機的質(zhì)疑聲一浪高過一浪。

然而，就算特朗普真的遭到彈劾，現(xiàn)在或許已經(jīng)不值得為此下注了。

如果在11月份大選結(jié)束后立即下注，賭特朗普會在首個任期內(nèi)被彈劾；再讓我們假設(shè)，這位投注者是特斯拉汽車的粉絲，而且一直在為備受期待的特斯拉Model 3攢錢。這款車報價35000美元，而這位彩民當(dāng)時只需下2200美元的注，就能掙到全部購車款。也就是說，押1美元就能贏回16美元，只是這位投注者只能在特朗普真的被彈劾后才能拿到這筆彩金。

現(xiàn)在的彩金則要少得多。如果上面那位投注者決定押特朗普遭彈劾，那么要想贏一輛Model 3，就得下35000美元的注。簡而言之就是押1美元得1美元。

就連和莫妮卡?萊溫斯基的丑聞鬧的最兇的時候，彩民們也不認(rèn)為比爾?克林頓有可能遭到彈劾。當(dāng)時的賠率是1賠6。

不過，不能真的基于博彩市場來判斷彈劾的可能性。

沙迪克說，在立博網(wǎng)站上下注的大多數(shù)彩民都不是美國人，而且大多數(shù)下注者都是博彩業(yè)余愛好者。

他指出：“把現(xiàn)任總統(tǒng)趕下臺的傳聞很多。[彩民們]對最新消息的反應(yīng)可能過頭了?！?/p>

此外，博彩網(wǎng)站體現(xiàn)出的彈劾可能性各不相同。在Predict-It（predictit.org）上下注的彩民認(rèn)為彈劾特朗普的幾率為30%，遠低于其他博彩網(wǎng)站。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審稿：夏林

Based on the most recent influx of bets placed on U.K.-based Ladbrokes, users seem to see a 60% chance that Trump will not last his first term in office, according to Matthew Shaddick, the head of political betting over at Ladbrokes. That's up from 25% immediately following the November elections.

" There’s virtually no one betting on him to not be impeached – in total, literally a single figure amount, " wrote Lee Price, a representative for Betfair.

That comes as the term "impeachment" has grown in notoriety over the past few days, as speculations over Trump's motivations for firing once-FBI Director James Comey continue to heat up.

But getting in on the bets now might not be worth it — even if the president is impeached.

If right after the November elections, a bettor decided to bet on Trump's impeachment within the first term. And say the bettor was a fan of Tesla, and had been saving up for the car maker's highly anticipated mass market Model 3 vehicle, quoted at $35,000 a piece. The bettor would have needed to put in just $2,200 to make the Model 3's worth back in full — or about $16 for every $1 bet — though he or she would only reap those winnings if Trump were indeed impeached.

The bet though is far less sweet now. If the same bettor decided to stake his or her funds on Trump's impeachment, the bettor would need to put in $35,000 on Betfair to earn back the Model 3's payment in full. In short, $1 for $1.

Even at the height of the Monica Lewinsky scandal, bettors didn't think President Bill Clinton was as likely to be impeached. At that time, a $1 bet would reap $6 in return.

But how likely an impeachment is can't really be judge based on the betting markets.

Most bettors are Ladbrokes are not from the U.S. Moreover, most are amateur hobbyists, said Shaddick.

"There's been a lot of talk of removing the sitting president," Shaddick said. "[Bettors] are likely overreacting to the latest piece of news. "

Moreover, the odds vary from betting site to betting site, with bettors on Predict-It seeing a much lower, 30% chance of impeachment.