比特幣再次高歌猛進(jìn)，一個(gè)月來(lái)已飆升近65%，上周更是歷史上首次突破2000美元的標(biāo)志性關(guān)口。以前比特幣也曾爆發(fā)過(guò)，但和這次都有些區(qū)別。

那么，本輪牛市背后的原因是什么呢？很難下定論，因?yàn)楸忍貛攀侨绱说牟豢深A(yù)測(cè)。不過(guò)，以下三個(gè)因素為比特幣暴漲做出了貢獻(xiàn)。

1. 對(duì)數(shù)字貨幣的全球性需求

投資者為各種各樣的加密貨幣搖旗吶喊，這種大趨勢(shì)成就了比特幣的2000美元里程碑。數(shù)字貨幣曾被視為怪人和電腦宅男的領(lǐng)域，但如今它已經(jīng)是如此的主流，以至于投資者認(rèn)為這是一種新型資產(chǎn)，而且建立了數(shù)億美元的對(duì)沖基金來(lái)購(gòu)買(mǎi)它

同時(shí)，還有人認(rèn)為數(shù)字貨幣是一種類似于黃金的資產(chǎn)，可以在政府陷入不穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)時(shí)保值。最近巴西和美國(guó)政局不穩(wěn)，美元和雷亞爾因此貶值，這或許為最近比特幣購(gòu)買(mǎi)量上升做出了貢獻(xiàn)。

最后，以太坊、恒星幣和萊特幣等其他數(shù)字貨幣近期價(jià)值急升也可能使比特幣間接受益。雖然可以用美元或其他傳統(tǒng)貨幣來(lái)購(gòu)買(mǎi)這些數(shù)字貨幣，但用比特幣（獲取難度最小的數(shù)字貨幣）來(lái)買(mǎi)往往更簡(jiǎn)便。換句話說(shuō)，可能有更多的人用比特幣作為媒介來(lái)投資更少見(jiàn)的數(shù)字貨幣。

2. 日本和中國(guó)

今年4月初，日本監(jiān)管部門(mén)出臺(tái)新規(guī)，更多地將比特幣視為銀行體系的一部分，而不是一種違法貨幣。這番調(diào)整激發(fā)了日本的比特幣交易熱潮，投資者爭(zhēng)相把日元兌換成比特幣。這種情況對(duì)比特幣價(jià)格的影響一直顯而易見(jiàn)。

在中國(guó)，政府長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)一直對(duì)比特幣又愛(ài)又恨，目前看來(lái)中國(guó)對(duì)比特幣的態(tài)度重新變得包容起來(lái)。據(jù)CNBC報(bào)道，分析師指出美國(guó)和中國(guó)的比特幣價(jià)差顯著縮小，這表明中國(guó)的比特幣投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)不那么高了：

比特幣的人民幣價(jià)格相對(duì)于其美元價(jià)格的折價(jià)幅度在一周內(nèi)從20%降至5%。中國(guó)醒悟了嗎？（https://t.co/Pr9QJTLLKP）

- Chris Burniske（@ARKblockchain），2017年5月20日

也就是說(shuō)，大量亞洲投資正在推動(dòng)比特幣快速躥升。

3. 炒作和噱頭

如果已經(jīng)跟蹤了比特幣一段時(shí)間，大家就會(huì)知道它容易暴跌。暴跌前，會(huì)有一系列關(guān)于比特幣價(jià)值的新聞報(bào)道，從而形成了一個(gè)炒作循環(huán)。這個(gè)周而復(fù)始的過(guò)程會(huì)引起主流投資者的注意，他們則成了比特幣價(jià)格上漲的動(dòng)力。

目前的感覺(jué)確實(shí)像是在一輪炒作循環(huán)之中。社交媒體上充斥著這種加密貨幣不可思議的增值消息。今年的Consensus（比特幣媒體Coindesk在紐約舉辦的年度技術(shù)大會(huì)，為期三天）也有望成為最引人關(guān)注的一屆，除了一長(zhǎng)串風(fēng)投公司的名字，IBM和微軟等大公司也將出現(xiàn)在本次會(huì)議上。

熱炒比特幣的原因很多，數(shù)字貨幣和區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)（依賴于多個(gè)電腦的在線記賬系統(tǒng)）已經(jīng)成為主流只是其中之一。但與此同時(shí)，我們也有理由持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。就像以往的炒作循環(huán)一樣，為比特幣站腳助威的人數(shù)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)持反對(duì)意見(jiàn)者，其中的部分原因是真正了解數(shù)字貨幣的人寥寥無(wú)幾，而且其中大多數(shù)確實(shí)都擁有大量比特幣，這就造成持懷疑態(tài)度的人不是那么多。

截止上周日下午，比特幣交易網(wǎng)站Coinbase上的比特幣報(bào)價(jià)為2020美元。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審稿：夏林

The digital currency bitcoin is on another remarkable run, soaring nearly 65% in the last month, and smashing the symbolic $2,000 mark for the first time ever this week. Bitcoin has gone on tears in the past, but never quite like this.

So what's behind the latest bull run? It's hard to say for sure, since bitcoin is so unpredictable, but here are three factors that are contributing to bitcoin's boom:

1. The Worldwide Demand for Digital Currency

The $2,000 bitcoin milestone comes amid a larger trend of investors clamoring for crypto-currency of all sorts. While digital money was once seen as the province of cranks and computers geeks, it's now so mainstream that investors see it as a new asset class and are creating hundred million dollar hedge funds to acquire it.

Meanwhile, others see digital currencies as an asset like gold, which can hold its value amid times of government instability. Recent political upheaval in Brazil and the United States, which led to drops in the dollar and the real, may have contributed to the recent uptick in bitcoin buying.

Finally, bitcoin may be benefiting indirectly from a recent explosion in the value of other digital currencies like Lumens, Ethereum and Litecoin. While it's possible to buy these currencies with dollars or other traditional currencies, it's often simpler to use bitcoins (which is the easiest digital currency to acquire) to buy them. In other words, more people may be buying bitcoin as a vehicle to invest in more exotic currencies.

2. Japan and China

At the start of April, regulators in Japan introduced new rules that treated bitcoin less like an outlaw currency and more as a part of the banking system. That change led to a burst of trading activity in the country investors rushed to swap yen for bitcoin. The effect on price has been predicable.

And in China, where the authorities have long had a love-hate relation with bitcoin, it appears the country is growing more tolerant once again. As CNBC reported, analysts are pointing to a big drop in the difference in bitcoin prices between U.S. and Chinese exchanges. This suggests bitcoin-related investments in China are less risky:

The discount that $CNY #bitcoin exchanges trade to $USD exchanges has dropped from 20% to 5% in the period of a week. China awaking? https://t.co/Pr9QJTLLKP

- Chris Burniske (@ARKblockchain) May 20, 2017

In other words, a whole lot of Asian investment is causing bitcoin to soar.

3. Hype and Hoopla

If you've followed bitcoin for a while, you know the currency is prone to spectacular crashes. The crashes followed flurries of press reports about the value of bitcoin, which created a hype cycle, and in turn drew the attention of mainstream investors who helped inflate the price.

It sure feels like we're in the midst of a hype cycle now. Social media is buzzing about the incredible surge in the value of crypto-currency assets. And this year's edition of Consensus, a three-day trade show in New York, promises to be the splashiest yet with big names like IBM and Microsoft appearing alongside a long list of venture capital firms.

There a lot of good reasons for the hype—not least because digital currency and blockchain technology (an online ledger system that relies on multiple computers) has gone mainstream—but also reasons for caution. As with past hype cycles, there are far more people cheering for bitcoin than against it. This is partly because there are few people who truly understand digital currency, and most of those who do own a large amount of it, so skeptics are in short supply.

As of Sunday afternoon, the value of a bitcoin was $2,020, according to Coinbase.