洗衣機(jī)在大多數(shù)美國家庭都不起眼。消費(fèi)者可能希望自己的洗衣機(jī)省電、省水，甚至“智能”，但并不會(huì)在意它長什么樣。中國的情況有所不同——洗衣機(jī)代表著經(jīng)濟(jì)地位，特別是時(shí)尚的洗衣機(jī)。這就可以解釋家電制造商小天鵝的產(chǎn)品審美了。這家公司推出了像復(fù)古機(jī)器人的“殺手級(jí)”金色洗衣機(jī)以及面向年輕父母的便攜式米老鼠洗衣機(jī)。憑借住宅友好型設(shè)計(jì)，小天鵝已經(jīng)成為中國第二大洗衣機(jī)廠商，2016年洗衣機(jī)銷售額達(dá)到24億美元左右。

很快，有機(jī)會(huì)在類似小天鵝的股票中淘金的美國投資者將大大增多。作為全球最知名的投資指數(shù)編制機(jī)構(gòu)之一，MSCI今年夏天將A股納入了它的新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)。此舉證明更多中國公司在賬目透明度和流動(dòng)性方面達(dá)到了國際標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。它也意味著，從明年5月開始，222只像小天鵝那樣的A股股票將通過新興市場(chǎng)指數(shù)和交易所交易基金首次成為投資者持倉的一部分。

這將是一場(chǎng)天翻地覆的變化。目前，美國投資者持有的大多數(shù)中國公司股票都在美國或香港證交所上市。雖然中國兩大證交所，也就是上海和深圳交易所在全球股市中的比重接近10%，但2016年美國股東在中國市場(chǎng)的持股量只有1036億美元，占他們持股總量的很小一部分。不過，A股納入MSCI指數(shù)后，這個(gè)數(shù)字預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)指數(shù)級(jí)增長，而且有些投資者目前已經(jīng)開始增持A股，因?yàn)樗麄冇X得來自指數(shù)基金的資金入場(chǎng)后A股價(jià)格將得到抬升。

In most American households, the washing machine keeps a low profile. Consumers may want their washer to be energy-efficient, water-saving, or even “smart,” but they don’t care how it looks. Not so in China, where a washer is a sign that you’ve arrived economically—especially if it’s stylish. That explains the aesthetic of Wuxi Little Swan. The appliance company sells a gold washing machine dubbed “Killer” that looks like a retro robot, along with a portable Mickey Mouse washer for new parents. It has ridden its apartment-friendly designs to become China’s second-biggest seller of washing machines, with sales of about $2.4 billion in 2016.

Before long, many more U.S. investors will get a chance to clean up on companies like Little Swan. This summer, MSCI, one of the most prominent creators of investment indexes, added “A-shares”—stocks that trade only on China’s domestic exchanges—to its emerging-markets index. The move was an acknowledgment that more Chinese companies meet international standards for accounting transparency and liquidity. And it means that, beginning next May, 222 A-shares like Little Swan will join investors’ portfolios for the first time, via their emerging-markets index and exchange-traded funds.

That’s a gravitational shift. Currently, most Chinese stocks owned by U.S. investors trade either on U.S. exchanges or in Hong Kong. Although China’s main domestic exchanges, in Shanghai and Shenzhen, account for nearly 10% of the global stock universe, U.S. shareholders owned only $103.6 billion worth of Chinese-traded stocks in 2016, a tiny fraction of their total holdings. But that number is expected to grow exponentially in the wake of MSCI’s move, and some investors are pouncing on A-share stocks today, assuming they’ll enjoy a price bump when money from index funds pours in.

大家應(yīng)該效仿嗎？懷疑者指出，目前并非買進(jìn)中國股票的理想時(shí)點(diǎn)。樓市泡沫和不斷膨脹的債務(wù)已經(jīng)引發(fā)了暴跌即將到來的擔(dān)憂。截至2016年年底，中國債務(wù)總額已經(jīng)達(dá)到GDP的260%。同時(shí)，中國市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)幅度大于美國市場(chǎng)，部分原因是起主導(dǎo)作用的是散戶，而不是在美國市場(chǎng)處于統(tǒng)治地位的銀行、基金以及其他機(jī)構(gòu)。不過，經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的投資者仍在中國公司的股票，包括A股和其他股票中看到了機(jī)會(huì)，認(rèn)為它們將在短期行情中有出色表現(xiàn)。

這樣的機(jī)會(huì)在很大程度上來自中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型，也就是從工業(yè)增長驅(qū)動(dòng)型經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橄M(fèi)驅(qū)動(dòng)型。許多最富足的消費(fèi)者都會(huì)居住在布局緊湊的市中心，這就是上面提到的無錫小天鵝公司的觀點(diǎn)。該公司的產(chǎn)品尺寸可定制，而且集洗衣——干衣功能于一身，可完美匹配小型公寓。共同基金公司銘基亞洲中國團(tuán)隊(duì)證券投資組合經(jīng)理蕭菊嫻解釋說，按需生產(chǎn)的業(yè)務(wù)模式讓小天鵝降低了負(fù)債需求，這對(duì)投資者來說也有吸引力。

資產(chǎn)管理公司杰尼桑公司新興市場(chǎng)證券投資經(jīng)理阿爾伯特·郭預(yù)計(jì)，隨著富裕程度的提高，中國的醫(yī)療保健支出將上升。世界銀行的最新可用數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2014年醫(yī)療保健開支占美國GDP的17.1%，但在中國GDP中的比重只有5.5%。郭還認(rèn)為中國將在醫(yī)療保健創(chuàng)新方面取得成功，他說：“他們已經(jīng)[見過]我們弄出來的爛攤子，而且不打算步我們的后塵?！边@樣的趨勢(shì)可能有利于金融控股公司平安保險(xiǎn)。多元化服務(wù)已經(jīng)幫平安收集了逾8億人的經(jīng)濟(jì)和健康數(shù)據(jù)，這應(yīng)該讓它可以更有效地為自己的醫(yī)療保健產(chǎn)品定價(jià)。就平安的創(chuàng)新而言，投資管理公司Driehaus Capital Investments證券投資助理經(jīng)理里奇·蒂斯指出，平安有一款熱門app，用戶可以通過它跟醫(yī)療機(jī)構(gòu)取得聯(lián)系，還能在網(wǎng)上支付醫(yī)療費(fèi)用。

并不是所有A股都只面向中國國內(nèi)市場(chǎng)。蒂斯還看好海康威視，這家設(shè)在杭州的監(jiān)控?cái)z像機(jī)制造商價(jià)值410億美元。中國的低制造成本讓它獲得了國際性優(yōu)勢(shì)，并在2016年實(shí)現(xiàn)海外收入14億美元，是2012年的八倍。同時(shí)，?？低暤难邪l(fā)投入占收入的8%，同樣令人側(cè)目。

投資者還可以通過已經(jīng)進(jìn)入國際市場(chǎng)的中國股票把寶押在中國消費(fèi)者身上。互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨擘阿里巴巴和騰訊主導(dǎo)著中國的網(wǎng)絡(luò)生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，它們的多用途app可以購物，可以玩游戲，還可以進(jìn)行電子支付。騰訊擁有約9億活躍用戶，阿里巴巴則控制著中國70%的電子商務(wù)市場(chǎng)。此外，香港投資管理公司普信股票投資專家尼克·比克羅夫特認(rèn)為，在廣告變現(xiàn)方面，阿里巴巴和騰訊可以做的都還有很多。也就是說，兩家公司都有大幅提升收入的潛力。

杰尼桑Jennison Associates的阿爾伯特·郭認(rèn)為，這種利潤豐厚的大踏步邁進(jìn)對(duì)中國大型科技企業(yè)來說不可避免。他指出，中國消費(fèi)者走在了技術(shù)曲線前面，原因是中國邁進(jìn)數(shù)字時(shí)代之際消費(fèi)者的購買力正在上升。他說：“現(xiàn)在中國已經(jīng)習(xí)慣于在電子商務(wù)、電子支付等領(lǐng)域看到快速采納者?！倍焖俨杉{對(duì)涉足其中的公司來說就可能意味著高增長。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

本文刊登在2017年8月1日出版的《財(cái)富》雜志上，題為《多方在中國買什么》。

Should you follow suit? Skeptics note that this isn’t the ideal time to buy Chinese equities. China’s frothy housing market and its escalating debt, which reached 260% of GDP at the end of 2016, have stoked fears of a looming slump. Its markets are also more volatile than America’s, in part because they’re dominated by individuals rather than by the banks, funds, and other institutions that rule in the U.S. Still, seasoned investors see opportunity in the A-shares—and other stocks too—among Chinese companies that are poised to ride out any short-term rockiness.

China’s transition to an economy driven by consumer spending rather than industrial growth is generating much of that opportunity. Many of the most affluent consumers will gather in tight-packed urban centers—an argument for the aforementioned Wuxi Little Swan, which customizes products by size and builds all-in-one washer-dryers that fit nicely in small apartments. Equally appealing to investors, explains Tiffany Hsiao, portfolio manager on the China team for mutual fund firm Matthews Asia, is that Little Swan’s build-on-request business model reduces its need to take on debt.

Albert Kwok, emerging-markets portfolio manager for Jennison Associates, expects Chinese health care spending to rise along with the country’s affluence. While health care represented 17.1% of U.S. GDP in 2014—the latest year for which World Bank data is available—it accounted for just 5.5% of China’s. Kwok also thinks China will be successful at innovating in the health care space. “They have [seen] the mess we have created” in the U.S., Kwok says. “And they don’t want to follow us.” Such trends could benefit the financial holding company Ping An Insurance . Ping An’s diverse suite of services has helped it gather financial and health data on more than 800 million people—which should enable it to more effectively price its health care coverage. Among its innovations, notes Rich Thies of Driehaus Capital Investments: a popular app that enables users to connect with clinics and pay medical bills online.

Not all A-share stocks cater solely to China’s domestic market. Thies also likes Hangzhou Hikvision, a surveillance-camera maker worth $41 billion. China’s low manufacturing costs give the company an edge internationally, and its revenue from outside China rose eightfold between 2012 and 2016, to $1.4 billion. And Hikvision dedicates an impressive 8% of revenue to research and development.

Investors can also bet on Chinese consumers through stocks that already trade globally. The Internet giants Alibaba and Tencent dominate China’s online ecosystems, offering multipurpose apps for shopping, gaming, and e-payments. Tencent has some 900 million active users, while Alibaba controls 70% of the country’s e-commerce market. But each could do much more to monetize its reach through advertising, says Nick Beecroft, equity portfolio specialist for T. Rowe Price in Hong Kong—meaning each has potential for huge new revenue gains.

Jennison’s Kwok thinks that kind of lucrative leap is inevitable for China’s tech giants. Chinese consumers are ahead of the technological curve, he argues, because the country jumped into the Digital Age just as they were gaining spending power. “China is now used to fast adopters in e-commerce, e-payments, and more,” he says. And fast adoption can mean rapid growth for the companies that tap into it.

A version of this article appears in the Aug. 1, 2017 issue of Fortune with the headline "Where Bulls Are China-Shopping."