邁入2017年，蘋果的股價(jià)就在或多或少地一路上揚(yáng)，迄今漲幅已經(jīng)達(dá)到了38%，也讓公司當(dāng)前的市值超過了8,200億美元。盡管蘋果的股價(jià)在本周達(dá)到了歷史最高的近162美元，但華爾街至少還有分析師認(rèn)為，另一場(chǎng)盛事有望讓蘋果成為第一家市值1萬億美元的公司。

RBC Capital Markets的阿米特·德萊納里表示，蘋果的股價(jià)還會(huì)上升到192至195美元，從而達(dá)到1萬億美元的市值，這取決于公司股票回購的比例。德萊納里計(jì)算到，蘋果的交易價(jià)大約是預(yù)計(jì)第二年的每股收益的16倍，所以蘋果的每股收益需要從2017年預(yù)計(jì)的9美元左右提高到2019年的12美元。

德萊納里寫道：“蘋果有潛力在未來12至18個(gè)月內(nèi)實(shí)現(xiàn)1萬億美元的市值，甚至超過這個(gè)值。我們通過多個(gè)杠桿看到了這種上行潛力。”

他表示，讓蘋果的每股收益達(dá)到12美元的“杠桿”就是新款iPhone機(jī)型，包括高價(jià)的高端機(jī)型帶來的收入，越來越多的服務(wù)收入也有助于公司擴(kuò)大利潤(rùn)，更好地限制成本，并進(jìn)行強(qiáng)有力的股票回購。

這種預(yù)測(cè)建立在蘋果消費(fèi)者和投資者的期待上，他們認(rèn)為iPhone的下一代產(chǎn)品將具有巨大的吸引力。三年來，蘋果手機(jī)的外觀設(shè)計(jì)都大體雷同，如今，關(guān)于2017年的機(jī)型將擁有至少一款徹底革新產(chǎn)品的流言已經(jīng)甚囂塵上。這款新機(jī)型被大眾稱作iPhone 8、iPhone X或iPhone Pro，據(jù)說會(huì)采用亮度更高的OLED無邊框屏幕。人們普遍認(rèn)為這款尚未發(fā)布的iPhone將會(huì)帶來強(qiáng)勁的銷量，也會(huì)幫助公司的股價(jià)在現(xiàn)在的基礎(chǔ)上繼續(xù)提高。上周，蘋果發(fā)布了最近季度的財(cái)報(bào)，但華爾街幾乎已經(jīng)忽略了蘋果過去的銷售額，關(guān)注點(diǎn)反而變成了通過財(cái)報(bào)的預(yù)期收益來推測(cè)下一代iPhone的推出時(shí)間。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

Apple stock has more or less been on a tear in 2017, rising 38% and giving the company a current stock market value of over $820 billion. But even with the stock hitting an all-time high of almost $162 this week, at least one analyst on Wall Street sees a way for another big rally that would make Apple the first $1 trillion-dollar company.

Amit Daryanani at RBC Capital Markets says Apple's share price would have to rise from its current level to about $192 to $195, depending on the rate of the company's stock buybacks, to reach the $1 trillion value. With Apple trading at 16 times its estimated next year's per share profits, profits would need to increase from an estimated $9 or so in 2017 to $12 in 2019, Daryanani calculates.

"Apple has potential to achieve a $1 trillion dollar market cap and even surpass that over the next 12 to 18 months," writes Daryanani. "We see upside occurring from multiple levers."

Those "levers" to get to $12 per share in profit are revenue increasing from new iPhone models, including a higher-priced premium model, growing services revenue helping to expand profit margins, tighter cost control and strong stock buybacks, he says.

The prediction comes as anticipation is building among Apple customers and investors that the next round of iPhone updates could be particularly enticing. After Apple mostly stuck with the same external design for three years in a row, the rumor mill is full of leaks that the 2017 lineup will include at least one radically resigned model. Dubbed by outsiders the iPhone 8, iPhone X, or iPhone Pro, the new phone is predicted to have a brighter OLED screen stretching from edge to edge.Expectations for strong sales of the yet-to-be-announced iPhones have helped push the stock price to its current level. When Apple reported results last week for its most recent quarter, Wall Street almost ignored the past sales, focusing instead on what the company's forecast was hinting about the timing of the next iPhone.