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“股神”投資秘笈是胡說?這位明星基金經(jīng)理不信巴菲特

“股神”投資秘笈是胡說?這位明星基金經(jīng)理不信巴菲特

BLOOMBERG 2017-12-20
馬克·施梅爾認(rèn)為巴菲特過于強調(diào)估值的作用,還說其他大部分投資原則“都是胡說”。

馬克·施梅爾公開叫板“股神”沃倫·巴菲特,他認(rèn)為巴菲特過于強調(diào)估值的作用,還說其他大部分投資原則“都是胡說。”

施梅爾在共同基金巨頭富達投資集團任投資組合經(jīng)理,剛剛發(fā)行了富達旗下最成功的一只加拿大基金。他認(rèn)為,投資者不應(yīng)該死磕收益、現(xiàn)金流和市盈率等指標(biāo),應(yīng)該投資市場上表現(xiàn)異常的個股,包括加拿大的加密數(shù)字貨幣概念股之類。

在富達位于多倫多的辦公室接受采訪時,46歲的施梅爾說:“我主要關(guān)注表現(xiàn)極好或極差的個股。有些公司瀕臨破產(chǎn),股票非常便宜,壞消息連連,沒有人想買。還有些是人人都搶著想買,但估值太高讓人不敢出手?!?

施梅爾這套方法看來的確奏效。今年前11個月,富達規(guī)模18.6億加元(約合14.5億美元)的特殊情況基金(Special Situations Fund)回報率高達21%,另一只規(guī)模37.3億加元的加拿大成長型企業(yè)基金(Canadian Growth Company Fund)錄得17%的回報率。同期加拿大基準(zhǔn)股指S&P/TSX Composite Index總回報率僅有7.8%。施梅爾管理的全球創(chuàng)新類基金(Global Innovators Class)今年11月1日發(fā)行,發(fā)行前四周就完成募集4億加元,創(chuàng)下富達在加拿大募資最快紀(jì)錄。

具體來說,施梅爾的策略是緊盯變化迅速的行業(yè)。有些之前備受打擊,現(xiàn)在突然出現(xiàn)一線希望,比如施梅爾持有的《紐約時報》。還有些一直在顛覆本行業(yè)的格局,比如第三方支付服務(wù)商PayPal Holdings Inc.和視頻游戲開發(fā)商Take-Two Interactive Software Inc.。

估值無關(guān)緊要

“我不信沃倫·巴菲特,”施梅爾說,“我關(guān)心新事物,關(guān)注創(chuàng)新的、成長中和改變世界的事物。”

施梅爾不在意股票看上去貴不貴。他表示:“我選股時估值并不重要。估值是最沒有用的信息,因為人人都知道估值是多少?!?

牛市已經(jīng)持續(xù)很久,在當(dāng)前形勢下,施邁爾尋找的表現(xiàn)極差個股少了,更關(guān)注價格雖然很高卻在努力變革的個股。他一直在增持銅和能源類股,也在關(guān)注顛覆行業(yè)的企業(yè)。

在加拿大股市,他是玩具制造商Spin Master Corp.的最大股東,還持有電子商務(wù)軟件公司Shopify Inc.、知名羽絨服制造商Canada Goose Holdings Inc.,還有“一切”跟新興領(lǐng)域加密數(shù)字貨幣相關(guān)的個股?,F(xiàn)在加拿大最熱門的數(shù)字貨幣概念股包括比特幣挖礦公司Hive Blockchain Technologies Ltd.,還有與數(shù)字貨幣交易平臺合作的支付處理公司NetCents Technology Inc.等。

駕馭另類

施梅爾還廣泛涉獵加拿大私營企業(yè),他管理的加拿大成長型企業(yè)基金和特殊情況基金約有3%的倉位投向了加拿大私企,包括總部位于多倫多的人工智能公司DeepLearni.ng、總部設(shè)在安大略省滑鐵盧的可穿戴技術(shù)開發(fā)商Thalmic Labs。

施梅爾計劃一直持有這些公司,直到本輪牛市周期結(jié)束,也可能更久。他說:“我總是對人說能把握好另類個股,我會一直持有最優(yōu)秀的個股?!?

這意味著,一旦牛市轉(zhuǎn)向,施梅爾可能損失多達20%。但他并不害怕,大不了等下一次牛市來臨東山再起。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Pessy

審稿:夏林?

Mark Schmehl flouts Warren Buffett, thinks valuation is overrated and says most other rules of investing are “total baloney.”

The portfolio manager, who just completed Fidelity Investments’ most successful Canadian fund launch ever, eschews investing obsessions such as earnings, cash flow and price-earnings ratios and invests at the extremes of the market instead, including Canadian cryptocurrency stocks.

“I focus on the stuff in the tails: really cheap, broken, horrible stories that nobody wants to buy again, and stocks that everybody is excited about but their valuation is so high they can’t bring themselves to buy them,” Schmehl, 46, said in an interview at Fidelity’s Toronto offices.

His approach seems to be working. Fidelity’s C$1.86 billion ($1.45 billion) Special Situations Fund returned 21 percent in the first 11 months of the year and its C$3.73 billion Canadian Growth Company Fund returned 17 percent. That compares with a total return of 7.8 percent for the benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index over the same time frame. His new Global Innovators Class, launched on Nov. 1, raised C$400 million in four weeks in Fidelity’s fastest launch north of the border.

It’s all about finding industries where rapid change is occurring. This can include beaten-down sectors that are suddenly showing glimmers of hope — Schmehl owns The New York Times Co. — or stocks that are permanently disrupting their industries, like PayPal Holdings Inc. and video-game company Take-Two Interactive Software Inc.

Valuation Immaterial

“I don’t believe in Warren Buffett,” he said. “I care about new things, things that are innovative, that are growing, that are changing the world.”

He’s unfazed if those stocks look expensive. “Valuation is an immaterial part of the process for me,” he said. “It’s the least useful piece of information you will ever get because everybody knows what the valuation is.”

In the current long-in-the-tooth bull market, Schmehl is finding fewer of the horrible stocks and more of the expensive change-makers. He’s been adding to positions in copper and energy stocks, but otherwise is mostly focused on disruptors.

Among Canadian stocks, he’s the largest investor in toymaker Spin Master Corp., and he also owns Shopify Inc., Canada Goose Holdings Inc., and “everything” in the emerging cryptocurrency space. Stocks that have sprung up in the Canadian sector include Hive Blockchain Technologies Ltd. and NetCents Technology Inc.

Over Top

Schmehl also invests more than 3 percent of his Canadian Growth and Special Situation funds’ holdings into private Canadian companies, including DeepLearni.ng, a Toronto-based artificial intelligence company, and Thalmic Labs, a maker of wearable technology based in Waterloo, Ontario.

He plans to hang onto those companies right to the end of the bull-market cycle, and maybe even beyond. “I always tell people I will ride this thing right over the top. I will own the best stocks right to the end.”

This may mean losing 20 percent when the market turns, but that kind of double-digit loss doesn’t frighten Schmehl. He’ll be ready to pounce on the next wave.

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