投資支持團(tuán)體Tiger 21擁有大約580名會(huì)員，其中大部分都是已經(jīng)賣掉了自己公司的企業(yè)家。他們會(huì)定期見面，對(duì)各自的投資策略提供建議和反饋。團(tuán)體的創(chuàng)始人邁克爾·索內(nèi)菲爾特表示，面對(duì)市場(chǎng)中越來越多的未知情況，會(huì)員的應(yīng)對(duì)手段是把更多資金轉(zhuǎn)移到他們能夠幫助取得成功——即對(duì)結(jié)果有一定控制能力的資產(chǎn)那里。

當(dāng)然，最近幾年來，股票和債券的投資環(huán)境都很友好。不過隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve）決定上調(diào)利率，在牛市接近九周年之際，股票估值開始急劇增長(zhǎng)，再加上人們對(duì)國(guó)家安全的擔(dān)憂開始加劇，許多觀察家越來越傾向于認(rèn)為股市會(huì)出現(xiàn)回落?！静痪们?，在《財(cái)富》的年度投資圓桌會(huì)議上，專家們對(duì)這些擔(dān)憂進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)討論?！?

面對(duì)未知情況，許多投資者的做法是轉(zhuǎn)移資產(chǎn)，保護(hù)投資組合免受市場(chǎng)低迷的沖擊。轉(zhuǎn)向防御的策略往往意味著投資與股票或債券無關(guān)的資產(chǎn)，無論那是黃金、比特幣還是房地產(chǎn)，或是你親戚的最新發(fā)明。當(dāng)然，這些資產(chǎn)本身也有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，把大部分錢放到里面也是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)很大的豪賭。不過希望在于，你的防御性資產(chǎn)可以獲得一些回報(bào)，假如你剩下的投資表現(xiàn)掙扎，投資組合整體上也不至于虧本。

投資私人公司

對(duì)Tiger 21的許多企業(yè)家來說，（廣義上的）私人股本讓他們有機(jī)會(huì)減少股票或債券的沖擊。索內(nèi)菲爾特表示，過去十年來，這些商界富豪“資產(chǎn)配置的最大轉(zhuǎn)變”就是更傾向于私人股本，對(duì)這類資產(chǎn)投資的平均比重從之前的10%提高到了如今的21%。

私人股本可能意味著以天使投資人或風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資人的身份在某家有潛力的新公司參股。如果投資足夠多，你還可以加入公司的董事會(huì)，尤其是如果公司還處在發(fā)展早期的話（對(duì)于擁有創(chuàng)業(yè)經(jīng)驗(yàn)的人來說，這是個(gè)很有吸引力的前景）。Tiger 21的另一些投資者則通過私人股本公司的融資把錢投了進(jìn)去，而他們對(duì)于投資的日常關(guān)注就少了很多。

通過投資某家個(gè)人公司或少部分公司，你從市場(chǎng)中抽身而出，選擇了那些你認(rèn)為無論宏觀市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)如何，它們的特質(zhì)都可以讓你作為投資者獲利的公司。這樣的話，你把一種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)化為了另一種——你的財(cái)富更多地綁定在了相對(duì)較少的資產(chǎn)上。

現(xiàn)金和房地產(chǎn)的誘惑

當(dāng)然，在焦慮的時(shí)代，最沒有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的資產(chǎn)之一就是現(xiàn)金。Tiger 21的會(huì)員平均有11%的資產(chǎn)是現(xiàn)金。為許多Tiger會(huì)員服務(wù)的財(cái)富管理公司Claraphi Advisory Network的首席執(zhí)行官瓦利·納斯?fàn)柋硎荆暮芏嗫蛻舫钟械默F(xiàn)金占到了資產(chǎn)的25%到30%。對(duì)大部分投資者而言，這個(gè)比例太高了，不過納斯?fàn)柕目蛻敉ǔ６冀咏诵?，凈資產(chǎn)至少有200萬美元，他們承擔(dān)不了在退休之前投資大虧的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

納斯?fàn)栒J(rèn)為，出于保險(xiǎn)的考慮，現(xiàn)金“比起債券或其他手段，如今是一個(gè)好得多的選擇”。對(duì)于長(zhǎng)期債券而言，這點(diǎn)尤其正確，因?yàn)槔侍岣咭矔?huì)擠壓價(jià)格。囤積現(xiàn)金的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在于，你得自己把握時(shí)機(jī)——而你很難預(yù)測(cè)何時(shí)應(yīng)該把這筆錢重新投回股票或債券。而隨著時(shí)間的推移，顯然，現(xiàn)金的價(jià)值會(huì)被通貨膨脹侵蝕。

納斯?fàn)栒J(rèn)為房地產(chǎn)也是一種與整體市場(chǎng)關(guān)聯(lián)不大的資產(chǎn)。2008年的金融危機(jī)和股市跳水，與房地產(chǎn)的崩潰不謀而合，但從歷史上看，這樣的關(guān)聯(lián)只是一次特殊情況，而非慣例。

對(duì)沖基金是另一個(gè)選擇，不過它們的費(fèi)用很高，許多交易型開放式指數(shù)基金的衍生品也是一樣，它們尚未證明自己的價(jià)值。不過，盡管對(duì)沖基金在股市強(qiáng)勁時(shí)表現(xiàn)不佳，但一些基金，尤其是那些著重于管理期貨的基金，在金融危機(jī)期間的表現(xiàn)卻優(yōu)于市場(chǎng)平均水平。

這些都是抵御股市風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的平衡做法。長(zhǎng)期來看，防御策略的意思就是判斷哪些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)你可以承擔(dān)，哪些則是你無法承受的。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

The investing support group Tiger 21 has about 580 members, most of them entrepreneurs who have sold their businesses. They meet regularly to provide advice and peer feedback on each other’s investment strategies. Michael Sonnenfeldt, creator of the group, says that lately, his members are dealing with growing unknowns in the market by moving more of their funds into assets where they can help shape success—and have some control over the outcome.

The stock and bond investing climates, of course, have been friendly for several years running. But with the Federal Reserve committed to increasing interest rates, stock valuations sharply elevated as the bull run approaches its 9th birthday, and national security concerns rising, there’s a growing belief among many observers that we’re due for a pullback. (Experts recently discussed these concerns at length while sitting at Fortune’s annual investment roundtable.)

Many investors are reacting to the unknowns by moving their assets to protect their portfolios against a market downturn. Looking for a defensive strategy usually means increasing exposure to an asset class that isn’t correlated with stocks or bonds—whether it’s gold, or Bitcoin, or real estate, or your brother-in-law’s latest invention. Each of these assets is risky in its own right, of course—and to put most or all of your money in any one would be a very edgy bet. But the hope is that your defensive assets will register some gains and keep your portfolio afloat if and when the rest of your holdings struggle.

Taking it private

For many entrepreneurs within Tiger 21’s network, private equity (broadly defined) provides the opportunity to decrease exposure to stocks or bonds. Over the past decade, “the single largest asset allocation shift” of these wealthy business people has been into private equity, says Sonnenfeldt, with the average allocation to that category growing from 10% to 21% today.

Private equity can mean taking a stake in a new, promising firm as an angel investor or venture capitalist. It can also include purchasing an established but struggling enterprise that you and a group of investors believe can be revived. A big enough investment could put you on the board of directors of the individual company, particularly if it’s in an early stage of development (an appealing prospect to someone with entrepreneurial expertise). Other Tiger 21 investors pool their money in funds raised by private equity firms; that structure limits their input, but decreases the amount of day-to-day attention they need to give the investment.

By betting on an individual company or on selective small pools of companies, you’re moving away from the market, choosing firms that you believe have unique characteristics that could benefit you as an investor no matter what happens on a macro level. So you’ve swapped one kind of risk for another kind—the exposure that comes with having more of your wealth tied up in relatively few assets.

The allure of cash and real estate

Of course, one of the only truly risk-free assets in anxious times is cash. Tiger 21’s clients on average have about 11% of their assets in cash. Vali Nasr, CEO of wealth manager Claraphi Advisory Network, which serves many Tiger members, says many of his clients have a 25% to 30% stake in cash. That’s high for most investors, but Nasr’s typical clients are nearing retirement with at least $2 million in net worth—and can’t risk taking a large hit to their portfolio right before stepping away from the job.

Nasr views cash as a “much better alternative these days than being in bonds or other instruments” for defensive purposes. That’s especially true with regard to long-term bonds, where rising interest rates could squeeze prices. The risk of hoarding cash: It gets you into market-timing territory—since it’s hard to predict when it might be a good time to plow that money back into stocks or bonds. And over time, of course, the value of cash gets eaten alive by inflation.

Nasr also sees real estate as an asset class that has little correlation to the overall market. The 2008 financial crisis and stock market plunge coincided with a real estate crash, but historically such correlation has been the exception rather than the rule.

Hedge funds are another option, but they come with high fees, as do some of their ETF offshoots, which have yet to prove their worth. Still, while hedge funds generally don’t do well when the stock market is strong, some funds, particularly ones that focus on managed futures, did outperform the market during the financial crisis.

Such is the balancing act of trying to defend against the stock market’s risks. In the long run, playing defense is about deciding which risks you can live with, and which ones you can’t.